AHC: Islamic Ireland

Constantinople is sieged again shortly after hour POD, and falls to the Muslims. Then, Islam gradually spreads, in fits and starts, across Europe, aided by the eastern peoples converting.

This, really. In order to make Ireland dominated by Islam, you must first make all of Europe dominated by Islam. Ireland is probably the last country to become Muslim due to its geographical position. However, if Constantinople falls shortly after the POD, I assume Russia would voluntarily choose Islam, like they accepted Orthodox Christianity in OTL. After this it would have to spread relatively fast westwards. You would probably have to use conquest in the areas that were already Christian. I think it would take a lot of wanking in order to make Ireland majority Muslim.
 
As for attempting to convert Ireland to Islam, there are several ways.
  1. Prevent Ireland from becoming Christian in the first place, though the changes might be more dramatic and lead to a more pagan England and Europe. Conversion in this scenario would be much easier, and forceful if needed. But it's easier than converting an existing Catholic area.
  2. Conquest by an Islamic power (Umayyads) or Islamized Vikings. Conversion in this case is a lot harder, as it's already Christianized, but you can go two ways about it, either via force (highly risky, and could very much lead to expulsion by the natives), or slow (tolerance, but economic pressure via the jizya would pressure many to convert). Both cases would has a very high probability of failure due to their distance from their power bases, manpower pools, and its proximity to hostile Christian powers. But overall, if held long enough, it might get an Islamic Ireland. Might...

Point #1 you'd have to get a butterfly with dragon wings - Ireland was introduced to Christianity about 100 years before there was Islam. And a MUCH more pagan England and Europe.

#2 is on target. Especially the "Might..." bit.
 
The other problem you have with converting the Norse is that Islam isn't really going to have missionaries like Christianity does. Usually the way kingdoms convert is through either a Muslim power taking over the region, or by virtue of a local ruler converting to Islam and various followers in the populace going along with it, whether to remain in power or to avoid paying the jizya. They're not going to go around building networks of preachers or mosques all over Norway like Christians did, because "There is no compulsion in religion."

What about the wandering Sufi dervishes who preached and used superior medical know-how to convert populations in Africa? It pretty much followed the same process of shallow conversion leading to orthodox scholars and more complex state structures. I don't see why these Sufi's aren't at least somewhat analogous to Christian missionaries.

Furthermore, the pattern of "ruler converts than makes the populace convert" happened tons of times with Christianity. I think that if the rest of Europe went Muslim (Say with an "Ummayads conquer Constantinople PoD) all the same structural conditions that made Scandinavia embrace Christ (diplomatic links, trading advantages, cultural prestige, literacy, aid in constructing complex states, etc) would also work to Islamicize Scandinavia-as it did with other states that Islamicized without direct conquest.

Did I misunderstand you? I feel like I might have...
 
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