AHC: Ireland not dominated by FG and FF

[Von Tyrconnell]

Historically Irish politics were dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with the Labour Party sometimes backing or going into government with one of the two (usually FG), until the 1990s. With a POD of 1922, can Ireland become a more multipolar democracy earlier?

Potential opportunies for this are for Labour's attempt in 1927 to form a coalition with the National League Party supported by Fianna Fáil, failing by one vote due to a National League TD's absence, to succeed, or in the 1940s when discontent towards de Valera's government was growing, which saw Labour eclipse Fine Gael in 1943 and the post-war period seeing the rise and fall of several minor populist parties like Ailtirí na hAiséirghe, Clann na Poblachta and Clann na Talmhan, the latter two becoming part of the Inter-Party Governments.

If Labour doesn't allow Jim Larkin to join (preventing the Labour-National Labour split) and David Gray doesn't spark an invasion scare in 1944 causing Fianna Fáil to regain popularity, Labour might have a chance of becoming more popular than Fine Gael, turning Irish politics into a more traditional left vs right split.

It's hard to see Ailitrí na hAiséirghe doing well in a non-Axis victory timeline, but if they can successfully replace Ó Cuinneagáin with a more moderate leader they could prevent the split which essentially destroyed the party and possibly take advantage of Ireland's economic decline and tensions over partition in the 50s (Fianna Fáil's anti-IRA stance was very much disliked by many of their grassroots supporters) to win some seats. Ailtirí surviving may damage Clann na Poblachta's prospects as their rise was greatly assisted by the defection and support of many ex-Ailtirí followers, though it's very possible they would defect even without a split as fascism's time had clearly came and went by the late 1940s.

Clann na Poblachta and Clann na Talmhan might ironically do better than OTL if Fianna Fáil wins enough seats to form a government in 1948 as people will likely become even more weary of FF being in charge and the disastrous Mother-and-Child Scheme will be avoided for the time being. Like I said with Ailtirí above, if Clann na Poblachta isn't tainted with their legacy in government, they could win support in the 50s by promising to fix the stagnating Irish economy and take a harder line on partition.

Thoughts?

 

[Hood]

Historically Irish politics were dominated by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, with the Labour Party sometimes backing or going into government with one of the two (usually FG), until the 1990s. With a POD of 1922, can Ireland become a more multipolar democracy earlier?

Potential opportunies for this are Labour's attempt in 1927 to form a coalition with the National League Party supported by Fianna Fáil, failing by one vote due to a National League TD's absence, to succeed, or in the 1940s when discontent towards de Valera's government was growing, which saw Labour eclipse Fine Gael in 1943 and the post-war period seeing the rise and fall of several minor populist parties like Ailtirí na hAiséirghe, Clann na Poblachta and Clann na Talmhan, the latter of two becoming part of the Inter-Party Governments.

If Labour doesn't allow Jim Larkin to join (preventing the Labour-National Labour split) and David Gray doesn't cause an invasion scare in 1944 causing Fianna Fáil to regain popularity, Labour might have a chance of becoming more popular than Fine Gael, turning Irish politics into a more traditional left vs right split.

It's hard to see Ailitrí na hAiséirghe doing well in a non-Axis victory timeline, but if they can successfully replace Ó Cuinneagáin with a more moderate leader they could prevent the split which essentially destroyed the party and possibly take advantage of Ireland's economic decline and tensions over partition in the 50s (Fianna Fáil's anti-IRA stance was very much disliked by many of their grassroots supporters) to win some seats. Ailtirí surviving may damage Clann na Poblachta's prospects as their rise was greatly assisted by the defection and support of many ex-Ailtirí followers, though it's very possible they would defect even without a split as fascism's time had clearly came and went by the late 1940s.

Clann na Poblachta and Clann na Talmhan might ironically do better than OTL if Fianna Fáil wins enough seats to form a government in 1948 as people will likely become even more weary of Fianna Fáil being in charge and the disastrous Mother-and-Child Scheme will be avoided for the time being. Like I said with Ailtirí above, if Clann na Poblachta isn't tainted with their legacy in government, they could win support in the 50s by promising to fix the stagnating Irish economy and take a harder line on partition.

Thoughts?

Firstly, I like it, Irish post independence politics is rare here.
Ireland was never divided as much by right/left split than moderate larger farmers (FG) and smaller republican farmers (FF). Other than that, they were effectively two sides of the same coin, but that divide was a deep one. Only now is such a left/right divide emerging, but most parties are centre left, lining up exactly with the current bellcurve for modern irish political views on the centre left.
A big problem labour faces therefore is they are not facing an ideological opponent, nor a politically ideological voter base by and by, and FF especially had a chameleon like ability to shift itself to whatever the status quo of the time was, it was by and large the cross class party. The real clincher here for Labour was FF's move towards corporatism, why would the trade unions bother with the sickly third when they can work with the big guys?

I'm not very well versed on the 40s, however if Clann stays out of government short term they may have a better chance at building up their base. The problem remains that FF was still the largest party in the country despite not being in government, showing that yes, there was defections towards the coalition, but ultimately FF continued to hold their ground. I fear Clann looks around and realises it has a lot in common with FF, may end up in the coalition trap with them at some point and be smothered in the next election. So perhaps akin to the 80s with the PDs, they may be able to carve out a niche.

The issue with the stagnating economy in the 1950s is that a lot of the necessary and painful reforms that really needed to take place happened over the decade and laid the groundwork for whittaker and the programme for economic expansion in the 60s. Steam was gone from Irish railways in the republic by 1963, years ahead of GB.

Clann na Talmhan is one I think could work, but it needs to become the party of rural Ireland, in other words it needs to displace or absorb the rural independents. If it can do that and hold on without getting wiped out in a coalition they will settle into a comfortable role as kingmakers lobbying for better services for rural areas and fairer prices for farmers etc. In many ways they'd be a coalition of independents.

The undermining of the Irish political system began in the 1980s with the PDs and FF losing its majority of the voter base, though holding onto the largest plurality. The dire economic situation of the 1970s and 80s and the beginning of the end for the republican/nationalist split from old age meant 2008 was going to upend the system.