AHC: Iranwank - Superpower Persia

Would it be possible to create an Iran/Persia that qualifies as a superpower in the 20th century with a PoD no earlier than the 15th century?
 
Yes. Just get the Afsharid Empire to stablise. When Russia proves a threat in Central Asia, conquer the remaining Central Asian states. A modern Afsharid state plus some extra bits here and there would have over 150 million people and unite the historic culturally Persian realm.

I guess a different Persian empire could emerge, but the goal is basically for Persia to build an empire which units the culturally Iranian region of the world, and IMO the Afsharids are the easiest solution for this.
 
Superpower though? I can see a greater power Iran but, if you're thinking USA or USSR level strength, that's a bit harder to do, I think.

The Afsharid did do quite well but they are still wedged between the Russian and British Empires and they'll be competing with both (Russia in Central Asia, Britain in central India), not to mention they have the Ottoman Empire to the west to continue fighting over Mesopotamia. Not saying that they can't become strong but they will have three rivals to check them in all directions. Making them strong is one thing but making them ascendant over the rest of the world is a bit much to ask for post-Mongols/Timur, I'd say.
 
Superpower though? I can see a greater power Iran but, if you're thinking USA or USSR level strength, that's a bit harder to do, I think.

The Afsharid did do quite well but they are still wedged between the Russian and British Empires and they'll be competing with both (Russia in Central Asia, Britain in central India), not to mention they have the Ottoman Empire to the west to continue fighting over Mesopotamia. Not saying that they can't become strong but they will have three rivals to check them in all directions. Making them strong is one thing but making them ascendant over the rest of the world is a bit much to ask for post-Mongols/Timur, I'd say.

There is no time before Timur or Temujin to do this. Iran prior to this was deeply depressed socially and economically. It was only after Timur during the Safavid reign that Iran became ascendant.
 
Great Power is doable. Superpower would require changing the definition or some bizarre theatrics.

If all the Iranian language speakers are in Persia, from the Kurds to the Tadjiks and Baluchs, then plausibly "Iranian" could come to mean "speakers of Iranian languages". It could feasibly retain control of Azerbaijan and maybe half of OTL Russian Central Asia. The Shi'ite states on the Gulf could be in Greater Iran's orbit (heck, they sort of are in our TL!). How about an alliance with a Shi'ite lower Mesopotamia, while we're at it?

This state could be true a 20th century Great Power, albeit a fairly delicate one - more on par with Italy, Japan, or Austria-Hungary than with the top tier Powers. Eventually, with luck and recognizable global trends, it would naturally surpass most individual European Powers, even Germany. But that's still not a superpower. The USSR would drastically outweigh such a state, even if reduced in size.

Bottom line, there simply aren't enough Iranian people in the world to make for a proper superpower. And there are hard limits to changing that, imposed by geography, rainfall, and soil. Getting Mesopotamia to speak something Iranian would be difficult without changing the numbers much; getting the Indus to switch language groups would require an epic ancient history POD, mess up all of modern history beyond recognition, and the region probably wouldn't stay in political union regardless.

It might take Persian settler colonies in political union, on top of everything. If you could get Persia to drop trouble makers and pretenders in Natal prior to 1500, say, just past the end of their trade routes to East Africa, perhaps South Africa could be dominated by ethnic Persians and converted to Islam. Then if Persia is the traditional protector of the region, maybe you could have eventual political reunion of one sort or another after the European irruption.

If a super-Persia dominates the Gulf and stretches from Kurdistan to the Aral Sea almost to the Indus, then it resurges in strength relative to the West with everything going perfectly right for a couple centuries (God protects fools, drunks, small children, and the United States of Iran?), then maybe. Then if a scattering of Shi'ite states from Walvis Bay to Kenya want to tie themselves to this Iran, and no power tries to drive a wedge in for some reason, and South and East Africa develop more than OTL....

That's a lot of maybe's, but it might be starting to resemble the power and influence of the USSR at its weaker moments.
 
I wouldn't go so far as to say this is impossible or exceedingly difficult, though it is a challenge. Iran has access to three continents by stint of geography and can plausibly be a power in the Mediterranean Sea, Indian Ocean and East African Coast, much like Russia they can despite being somewhat "backwards" and a traditional, sprawling land power amass by stint of sheer geography a position as one of the leading powers of the world. The key is to prevent or delay the rise of the Ottomans and most importantly nerf Russia into the ground. If you get whoever unites Iran into Central Asia, specifically Astrakhan and Crimea, as well as their traditional influence in Transoxiana then Persia can potentially replace Russia as the major trans-Eurasian power if not a global superpower eventually, especially if they end up conquering Egypt and Oman and clientizing India and the Swahili Coast. OTL the Ottomans made an abortive attempt to support the Khanate of Astrakhan and made Crimea a vassal state; with an earlier Persian power focused on the Caspian and Black Seas and Russia a nonentity it's not inconceivable that they could eventually absorb the trans-Ural khanates come the age of gunpowder just as the Russians did in OTL, hell they would probably have an easier time of it given the religious, ethnic and political ties between Persia and the steppes. Basically get a modern Sassanid Empire with everything between the Dnieper and Siberia conquered over the 16th and 17th centuries by the Shananshah, and a slew of anti-Portuguese allied clients in West India and East Africa.
 
There is no time before Timur or Temujin to do this. Iran prior to this was deeply depressed socially and economically. It was only after Timur during the Safavid reign that Iran became ascendant.
Technically, the Achaemenids and Sassanids precede Temujin by a bit.

As for "making them ascendant over the rest of the world is a bit much to ask for post-Mongols/Timur, I'd say," I'm not saying that the Safavids couldn't have become great. You're right in saying that the Safavids made Iran great again but they weren't by far the incomparably most powerful nation in the whole region the way the earlier Persian dynasties were. I'm saying that it's too late for them to become the unparalleled most powerful nation in the world (the prompt asked for superpower, not great power) without an incredible wank or two.
 
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