AHC: Industrializing Challenges

With any PoD before 1900, how would you make France, Spain, the Ottomans, Italy, Austria, Poland/Poland-Lithuania, or Mexico a major industrial power on the level of WW1 Britan or Germany? What are the forseeable consequences? Bonus points if you can get more than one of those places industrializing in the same scenario.
 
Industrialization is absolutely dependent on coal, and coal is not easy to transport. That's why the industrial giants will primarily be those which actually have coal, like Britain and Germany, even though other countries may get some of their excess coal.

Italy will never be able to become an industrial power on the scale of Germany, Britain or even France - the industrial capacity it got OTL was because the southernmost limit of waterways in the 19th century was in northern Italy (so you won't get coal imports to North Africa, or even south Italy), and it attracted capital because of its cheap labour. If the tragedy/farce of Italy's performance in WWII teaches something, it is that coal builds empires rather than the other way around.

France has potential, especially if the excess population at the start of the 19th century wasn't gotten rid of through war, but rather through settling in resource-rich areas to the east, allowing it to become core French areas.

Spain won't become an industrial giant, but it has plenty of room for expansion nevertheless. While the terrain of Spain might be a bit of a problem, the biggest obstacle (in other words, the thing that has to change) is its economic situation from the 16th century forward.

The Ottoman Empire is perhaps the power that could grow the most compared to actual growth, and holding territories in the Balkans will be the most important part of that process. Please refer to this excellent post for some ideas on how it might come about.

Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth also has tremendous room for expansion, but it was handicapped by policies which turned it from one of the most progressive and rich empires in Europe to a decaying cesspool, laughing stock of the continent - its in a similar seat to Spain.

I hope that might give some ideas.
 
Very interesting stuff, but do you have any opinion on Austria/Austria-Hungary or Mexico? For Italy, would there have been any opportunities for them to snag colonies with such resources in Africa, or is any version of early modern Italy doomed to be second class? Also, what about the Ottomans non Balkan territories? The middle east is obviously oil rich, but beyond that I dont know too much about its resources

Also, for France, do you think that a French victory in the Franco-Prussian war in which they recieved some minor west German territorial concessions would have pushed them over the threshold?
 
Have you forgotten the USSR in the 40s? You know, that industrial monster that almost single-handedly brought the Third Reich to its knees?

One success story does not make for "Communism = great industrial growth", especially when Mao's China is such a humiliating example of the reverse.

Austria-Hungary did grow at a pretty swift rate OTL - higher coal production production than France or Russia in 1914, steel production about half of either of theirs.

It'd be easier to make it do worse than better, though.
 
I'd like to ask-what made coal so important to industrialization? Could it be replaced in such a function by oil, and if so, when is the earliest that can happen?
 
With any PoD before 1900, how would you make France, Spain, the Ottomans, Italy, Austria, Poland/Poland-Lithuania, or Mexico a major industrial power on the level of WW1 Britan or Germany? What are the forseeable consequences? Bonus points if you can get more than one of those places industrializing in the same scenario.

France: Fully integrate and settle Belgium and Alsace for resources, get a stable government with foreign policies not consisting of pissing off every neighbour at random.

Spain: No clue, a much less successful colonial empire would be a start.

Ottomans/Austrians: It's easily possible, but I'm not really sure how.

PLC: A government that actually works, weaker neighbours would be a plus.
 
One success story does not make for "Communism = great industrial growth", especially when Mao's China is such a humiliating example of the reverse.

Austria-Hungary did grow at a pretty swift rate OTL - higher coal production production than France or Russia in 1914, steel production about half of either of theirs.

It'd be easier to make it do worse than better, though.

Particularly since Russia was quickly industrializing BEFORE WWI. It had a very high industrial growth rate just before the war broke out. It is a myth that it was a totally unindustrialized country before Lennin took over.
 
Particularly since Russia was quickly industrializing BEFORE WWI. It had a very high industrial growth rate just before the war broke out. It is a myth that it was a totally unindustrialized country before Lennin took over.

It is a distant fourth as of the start of WWI, but it is fourth place among the powers measured (US, UK, Germany, AH, Italy, France, Russia, Japan).
 
Spain: No clue, a much less successful colonial empire would be a start.
Yeah i've always thought that spain reached that hegemon stage and then just went "fuck it, what now?"

If spain had been more like england, that is colonizing strategic places and just conquering the others with needed resources, they may still be a powerful country; well if they federalize like people speaking of britain doing.
 
It is a distant fourth as of the start of WWI, but it is fourth place among the powers measured (US, UK, Germany, AH, Italy, France, Russia, Japan).


Which makes it not that surprising that it would wind up second at the end of war, although still far behind the US.
 
I'd like to ask-what made coal so important to industrialization? Could it be replaced in such a function by oil, and if so, when is the earliest that can happen?

Two things:


One: All kinds of steam engines, a use where it can be replaced by oil, though unlikely to be any time before 1900, probably only after WWI;
Two: Blast furnaces to make iron, something for which you can't use oil.

And since between 1850-1950 one of the major indicators of being a great power is steel production, you need easy & secure access to iron ore & coal, preferably from your own territories, otherwise from a good, nearby ally.
 
Markets are important - having a PURPOSE to production forces modernisation of production methodology. Just look at China today - without the overseas markets, there would be way less modern industrialisation there.

Colonies were seen as good markets but people did rather omit the obvious from their calculations - a load of dirt-poor African tribesmen lack the money with which to buy your goods.

The Raj had something less of a problem as there was a large and wealthy upper and merchant class among the natives. The EIC in fact retarded industrial growth in India in order to protect its own markets.

This lack of native industry coupled with the presence of sufficient money to provide a market can also be seen in China of the 19th century.

It is control of such markets which provide a spur to industrialisation, and through this the money coming into your country benefits the workers there so that sufficient of these then have money to boost the home market.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Colonies were seen as good markets but people did rather omit the obvious from their calculations - a load of dirt-poor African tribesmen lack the money with which to buy your goods.

Could this, by any chance, mean that less resource-rich colonies of Africa (like French West Africa) might receive education and other providers towards the establishment and growth of a wealthier class of Africans?

This lack of native industry coupled with the presence of sufficient money to provide a market can also be seen in China of the 19th century.

How/when/through what can it be seen, though? Do you think you could give some examples?
 
I would add my opinion that a native financial system of a decent level of complexity is necessary. Foreign investments usual happen, but it is important that there be local capital to invest in new industries as well so all profit does not fly out of country and instead stays and reinvests in the gains made. Natural resources are a huge factor as well. Coal, iron, oil, rubber, are all needed in some fashion to create factories.

I know this is cliche, but it is my opinion that industrialization starts with railroads. They create a market for the production of industrial commodities and resources and create a more interconnected internal market for future goods to be sold to. Also allows for a mobile workforce, cheaper transportation costs, and in some cases, a single large company can help pioneer the managerial practices needed to handle large corporations. Standardization of gauge and couplings on these railroads is very important though, so you don't deal with the inefficiencies of a long transfer if one railroad doesn't match the next.
 
I would add my opinion that a native financial system of a decent level of complexity is necessary. Foreign investments usual happen, but it is important that their be local capital to invest in new industries as well so all profit does not fly out of country and instead stays and reinvests in the gains made. Natural resources are a huge factor as well. Coal, iron, oil, rubber, are all needed in some fashion to create factories.

I know this is cliche, but it is my opinion that industrialization starts with railroads. They create a market for the production of industrial commodities and resources and create a more interconnected internal market for future goods to be sold to. Also allows for a mobile workforce, cheaper transportation costs, and in some cases, a single large company can help pioneer the managerial practices needed to handle large corporations. Standardization of gauge and couplings on these railroads is very important though, so you don't deal with the inefficiencies of a long transfer if one railroad doesn't match the next.

Both your points can be seen in good combination in Chile (nitrates and railroads) and Argentina (beef and railroads). While it did not lead to wholesale industrialisation of the country, there was substantial foreign investment which brought economic growth and wealth to a substantial number of locals, as well as immigrants who established thriving businesses *(eg factors in Valparaiso)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Both your points can be seen in good combination in Chile (nitrates and railroads) and Argentina (beef and railroads). While it did not lead to wholesale industrialisation of the country, there was substantial foreign investment which brought economic growth and wealth to a substantial number of locals, as well as immigrants who established thriving businesses *(eg factors in Valparaiso)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I guess the key part then is that an native who starts his own business continues to expand it. The OP suggested they wanted Great Power levels of industrialization. Now, that is neigh-impossible for a lot of nations, but IMO the best way to get to that is to look at their models. And if I am not mistaken, in the US, UK, and Germany, though foreign investment undoubtedly helped start industrialization, it was continued by not one but multiple companies continuing to invest and expand.

None of this is real bombshell stuff is it? :p
 
As has been said you need access to accesible coal and iron and I would add good water transport - canal or river in the beginning.

The two best bets would France and AH - France keeps the Rhine border which I think was offered towards the end of the Napoleonic wars and avoids the Algerian wars, concentrating on Europe.

AH - wins the Austro Prussian war. (stalemate is more likely.) Konigraatz could have been drawn and Prussia was probably less able to fight a long war that AH. On the back of that continue some fairly impressive rates of industrialisation. Have a stalemate and a coldish war within Germany to prompt development.

An AH win probably requires the Confederation of the Rhine not being given to Prussia at the Congress of Vienna. No Rhine province and Prussia is in no position to match AH the resources go to France/AH or it becomes another Belgium.

If you want a way baack POD - Preserve Burgundy. Actually give the Rhineland to the Netherlands at Vienna and have them keep it and Belgium might do that.
 
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