AHC: Independent Xinjiang

Zachariah

Banned
Your challenge is to have an alternate timeline, with a POD after 1900, which sees the entirety of the territory of OTL's Xinjiang Province becoming an independent nation by the present day. East Turkestan, Uyghuristan, the Kumul Kingdom- it's up to you. Please note- it doesn't have to continually be independent throughout that period- it could be annexed (i.e, by the British, Russians, Ottomans, Afghans or Soviets), but so long as it becomes fully independent by the present day, you'll satisfactorily meet the challenge. What would be the most plausible way for this to happen? And what would be the wider implications of such a TL?
 
Your challenge is to have an alternate timeline, with a POD after 1900, which sees the entirety of the territory of OTL's Xinjiang Province becoming an independent nation by the present day. East Turkestan, Uyghuristan, the Kumul Kingdom- it's up to you. Please note- it doesn't have to continually be independent throughout that period- it could be annexed (i.e, by the British, Russians, Ottomans, Afghans or Soviets), but so long as it becomes fully independent by the present day, you'll satisfactorily meet the challenge. What would be the most plausible way for this to happen? And what would be the wider implications of such a TL?

SCENARIO ONE

First POD: Stalin doesn't stop the Ili National Army when it's on the verge of capturing Urumqi in 1945. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11115746&postcount=3 He also intervenes in the power struggle between the pro-Soviet "progressive" wing of the Ili rebels (led by Ahmadjan Qasim, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehmetjan_Qasim who had spent a decade in the USSR) against the "Turkic/Islamic" wing so that the "progressive" elements dominate all of Xinjiang, not just the "Three Districts" as in OTL. Then, when Chiang wins the Chinese Civil War (that's the other POD), the East Turkestan Republic declares itself independent and asks for Soviet support...

(Incidentally, in OTL some people find Qasim's death in a plane crash in 1949 a little too convenient for Mao.)

This is not very likely: I do not think Stalin will want to alienate China--even a KMT China--to that extent, though he will try to maneuver to keep some Soviet influence in the "Three Districts."

SCENARIO TWO

The Turkish Islamic Republic of East Turkestan (TIRET) proclaimed by emirs in Kashgar in 1933 somehow survives. Very implausible--it just had too many enemies: the KMT, the Soviets, the Tungans, etc. Despite the claims of its critics that it was a "British puppet" it doesn't seem to have gotten any British support, either.

SCENARIO THREE

The Japanese, having established control in Inner Mongolia, move west and establish an Islamic "Manchukuo" in Xinjiang. The problem is that this involves a serious risk of conflict with the Soviets, and it's not clear why Japan would take it.
 
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SCENARIO ONE

First POD: Stalin doesn't stop the Ili National Army when it's on the verge of capturing Urumqi in 1945. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11115746&postcount=3 He also intervenes in the power struggle between the pro-Soviet "progressive" wing of the Ili rebels (led by Ahmadjan Qasim, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehmetjan_Qasim who had spent a decade in the USSR) against the "Turkic/Islamic" wing so that the "progressive" elements dominate all of Xinjinag, not just the "Three Districts" as in OTL. Then, when Chiang wins the Chinese Civil War (that's the other POD), the East Turkestan Republic declares itself independent and asks for Soviet support...

(Incidentally, in OTL some people find Qasim's death in a plane crash in 1949 a little too convenient for Mao.)

This is not very likely: I do not think Stalin will want to alienate China--even a KMT China--to that extent, though he will try to maneuver to keep some Soviet influence in the "Three Districts."

SCENARIO TWO

The Turkish Islamic Republic of East Tukrstan (TIRET) proclaimed by emirs in Kashgar in 1933 somehow survives. Very implausible--it just had too many enemies: the KMT, the Soviets, the Tungans, etc. Despite the claims of its critics that it was a "British puppet" it doesn't seem to have gotten any British support, either.

SCENARIO THREE

The Japanese, having established control in Inner Mongolia, move west and establish an Islamic "Manchukuo" in Xinjiang. The problem is that this involves a serious risk of conflict with the Soviets, and it's not clear why Japan would take it.

For your first scenario, what if the PRC is partially successful, if just for a little bit? The PRC claims Xinjiang as part of the country and, while separate, it is maintained for a few years, up to a decade. Eventually, the ROC goes back in for round 2, and in the end, the PRC ends up falling in Manchuria (if partially) and is split in two, but the war ends before Xinjiang is reclaimed. While theoretically one entity, Xinjiang becomes de facto independent and, eventually, de jure. (Basically, trying to formulate an East/West Pakistan event here)
 

Zachariah

Banned
SCENARIO ONE

First POD: Stalin doesn't stop the Ili National Army when it's on the verge of capturing Urumqi in 1945. https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11115746&postcount=3 He also intervenes in the power struggle between the pro-Soviet "progressive" wing of the Ili rebels (led by Ahmadjan Qasim, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ehmetjan_Qasim who had spent a decade in the USSR) against the "Turkic/Islamic" wing so that the "progressive" elements dominate all of Xinjiang, not just the "Three Districts" as in OTL. Then, when Chiang wins the Chinese Civil War (that's the other POD), the East Turkestan Republic declares itself independent and asks for Soviet support...

(Incidentally, in OTL some people find Qasim's death in a plane crash in 1949 a little too convenient for Mao.)

This is not very likely: I do not think Stalin will want to alienate China--even a KMT China--to that extent, though he will try to maneuver to keep some Soviet influence in the "Three Districts."

SCENARIO TWO

The Turkish Islamic Republic of East Turkestan (TIRET) proclaimed by emirs in Kashgar in 1933 somehow survives. Very implausible--it just had too many enemies: the KMT, the Soviets, the Tungans, etc. Despite the claims of its critics that it was a "British puppet" it doesn't seem to have gotten any British support, either.

SCENARIO THREE

The Japanese, having established control in Inner Mongolia, move west and establish an Islamic "Manchukuo" in Xinjiang. The problem is that this involves a serious risk of conflict with the Soviets, and it's not clear why Japan would take it.

Regarding Scenario Two, do you think that East Turkestan could have possibly stood a chance if it had gotten British support? And that actually latches onto Scenario Three in a way, because the First East Turkestan Republic was overtly supported by the Japanese as well- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumul_Rebellion#Japanese_attempt_to_set_up_a_puppet_state. Sure, it'd probably be the hardest option to pull off, but IMHO, it'd also be the most interesting to read/write an ATL about.
 
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Regarding Scenario Two, do you think that East Turkestan could have possibly stood a chance if it had gotten British support? And that actually latches onto Scenario Three in a way, because the First East Turkestan Republic was overtly supported by the Japanese as well- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumul_Rebellion#Japanese_attempt_to_set_up_a_puppet_state. Sure, it'd probably be the hardest option to pull off, but IMHO, it'd also be the most interesting to read/write an ATL about.


I doubt that British support for East Turkestan could have been anything more than tokenistic. The geography of the area makes the smuggling of arms etc. more difficult from the south than from the west, which was the primary route taken by the Soviets. This makes interdiction of that supply easy, whilst any support going as far as sending British Indian troops is pretty much impossible to supply, vulnerable, and not worth the effect on relations with China and the USSR. It was virtually inevitable that the Great Game delineated British and Russian spheres in the form that they did, because they were the logical extents of each side's power projection. British help will not even offset Tungan/Hui discontent, let alone external pressures.
 
Regarding Scenario Two, do you think that East Turkestan could have possibly stood a chance if it had gotten British support? And that actually latches onto Scenario Three in a way, because the First East Turkestan Republic was overtly supported by the Japanese as well- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumul_Rebellion#Japanese_attempt_to_set_up_a_puppet_state. Sure, it'd probably be the hardest option to pull off, but IMHO, it'd also be the most interesting to read/write an ATL about.

At least with Manchuria and Manchukuo, those could be supported from the sea from Japan. I don't see how an Uighurstan could function as a Japanese puppet state in the long term; the Chinese littoral is one thing, but projecting power that far into China anytime past the fifties, even absent WW2 or its equivalent.
 
At least with Manchuria and Manchukuo, those could be supported from the sea from Japan. I don't see how an Uighurstan could function as a Japanese puppet state in the long term; the Chinese littoral is one thing, but projecting power that far into China anytime past the fifties, even absent WW2 or its equivalent.

Inner Mongolia is landlocked and extends fairly far west, and that didn't prevent the Japanese from establishing an "autonomous" state there... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mengjiang
 
Inner Mongolia is landlocked and extends fairly far west, and that didn't prevent the Japanese from establishing an "autonomous" state there... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mengjiang

How effective was the Japanese control in that region? Located so near to Manchuria, It's not surprising that it would exist, but how much of that region was actually under the control of the Japanese puppet Government? That, and Xinjiang is quite a bit farther inland; Inner Mongolia is relatively close to the littoral and, more importantly, close to the Japanese center of power in China.
 
How effective was the Japanese control in that region? Located so near to Manchuria, It's not surprising that it would exist, but how much of that region was actually under the control of the Japanese puppet Government?

The Japanese direct control was rather limited and they let the puppet government have more local control with the Japanese just making sure that the governments follow as they say. The puppet government had some control over the land but it was more in the cities then in the rural area (as is per usual), they wouldn't have been able to last too long without some support from the Japanese though.

Xinjiang could be independent but having it under a Soviet puppet nation would be far more likely then a Japanese one. The land was fought over in the mid 1930's and the Soviets invaded the land twice and gave support to a pro-soviet faction during the early 30's.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Xinjiang could be independent but having it under a Soviet puppet nation would be far more likely then a Japanese one. The land was fought over in the mid 1930's and the Soviets invaded the land twice and gave support to a pro-soviet faction during the early 30's.

I agree. so then, how much more remote and far-fetched a possibility would a third option- that of Xinjiang being a Turkish puppet, an Ottoman 'kingdom in exile' for the Young Turks, or an Islamic theocratic regime (which would have predated Pakistan and its Jamaat-e-Islami party)- be in your opinion?
 
that of Xinjiang being a Turkish puppet, an Ottoman 'kingdom in exile' for the Young Turks, or an Islamic theocratic regime (which would have predated Pakistan and its Jamaat-e-Islami party)- be in your opinion?

The regime had too little foreign support to survive. The Soviet Union refused to deal with Islamist's and the remaining surrounding nations didn't want to get wrapped up in a conflict in Xinjiang. The nations was dependent on it's mines for economic growth and as you can imagine, the inflation was crippling. Without direct soviet support (thousands of soviet red army troops fought for the republic but based as primarily military settlers then army officials) it was doomed to fail.
 
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