AHC: Independent Siberia

Siberia is made an SSR by the Soviet goverment in the 20s which means that when the USSR breaks up in 1991 it becomes independent with all the other SSRs?
 
Siberia is made an SSR by the Soviet goverment in the 20s which means that when the USSR breaks up in 1991 it becomes independent with all the other SSRs?
Two problems:

1. All of the other SSRs were built as subunits for minority groups. The minority groups in Siberia are so small that it is ridiculous to give them anything greater than an ASSR. The vast majority of Siberians were and are Russians, so the subunit they would go into is the RSFSR.

2. This relates to the above: the Siberians have no reason to split from Russia once the USSR goes under. All of the other states that split had a majority of ethnic non-Russians, so they had a clear reason to split from Russia.

The 2nd reason is the ultimate problem with an independent Siberia. It's so vastly Russian and underpopulated that it makes social and economic sense for it to be part of Russia.
 

trurle

Banned
Make Japanese intervention in Siberia persist. IOTL, it was winded down due lack of domestic support in Japan, not because of the Russian resistance. Eventually, the occupied territory would become an independent Siberian State (although i think West Siberian lowland is still going to remain with European Russia in this scenario)
 
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There are some "Independent Siberia" movements OTL, though they are little more then marginal curiosities. If you have even weaker central government in Moscow after USSR collapse, and regions got a lot more autonomy, there is a possibility of eventual independence.
Second possibility is that Kolchak in 1919 failed to defeat Bolsheviks (like he did OTL) but did not fail to hold Siberia. With international support he could create some kind of Siberian Russia.

It is almost impossible to create non-Russian Siberian state with post1900 POD. Especially one to encompass all Siberia. The closest is independent Yakutia which could be created in post 1990 Russia dissolution. It had some moves that direction OTL with stressing it's sovereignty (similarly to Tatarstan and Chechnya) and even attempted to replace Russian with English as a second language. It never got serious. But Yakutia is not the whole Siberia (even if largest part of it).
 
Japanese occupation post-1918 and made a colony until 1945. Afterwards when the USSR collapses it breaks off on its own. I doubt this actually because Siberia has currently 25 million people in an area two times the size of the US. I can see maybe a coastal or something like Tuvu breaking off as more realistic.
 
You need Siberian regionalism to become stronger and eventually turn into nationalism. There were some steps in that direction post WWI, but the Soviets snuffed it out. If Russia were both an open society and a totally unstable disaster for decades, then you would have the best possible conditions. Its still not likely.
 
White Russia fights the Soviets to a standstill with much more Japanese help and a ceasefire is eventually established with a border along the Urals. We might see a Taiwan-esque situation in which Siberia feels that it's a separate nation, perhaps supported by a stronger Japan that is able to establish itself as the unchallenged power in East Asia.
 
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