AHC: Independent Minas Gerais

[Taunay]

With a POD of 1720, have the State of Minas Gerais be an independent country.
The rules for this AHC are:
1 - At least the majority of the territory of OTL Minas Gerais must be in this country;
2 - Minas Gerais can expand and annex more territories, although it's not obligatory and one should be careful not to make ASB expansions (Amazonian territory is impossible in Minas Gerais);
3 - The rest of Lusophone America doesn't need to be balkanized, although it's up to you whether to balkanize it or not.

 

[Taunay]

@Vinization @Gukpard

 

[Vinization]

The most obvious POD, for me at least, would be for the Inconfidência Mineira to actually kick off instead of being discovered. For this, two things are necessary: first the derrama (a new tax which was the subject of much fearful speculation and was supposed to be the pretext the rebels would use to rise up) needs to be actually implemented, and Silvério dos Reis needs to keep his mouth shut. However, even if the revolt succeeds at first and the rebels take over Minas Gerais, they'd be completely isolated from any potential foreign allies, since the Portuguese would still control the rest of Brazil and all its ports. Plus, they'd be able to attack from multiple directions.

@Guilherme Loureiro

 

[Taunay]

The most obvious POD, for me at least, would be for the Inconfidência Mineira to actually kick off instead of being discovered. For this, two things are necessary: first the derrama (a new tax which was the subject of much fearful speculation and was supposed to be the pretext the rebels would use to rise up) needs to be actually implemented, and Silvério dos Reis needs to keep his mouth shut. However, even if the revolt succeeds at first and the rebels take over Minas Gerais, they'd be completely isolated from any potential foreign allies, since the Portuguese would still control the rest of Brazil and all its ports. Plus, they'd be able to attack from multiple directions.

@Guilherme Loureiro

Great analysis and thanks for answering!

 

[Taunay]

Some of the Inconfidentes wanted to annex Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo after the independence of Minas Gerais.

 

[Vinization]

Some of the Inconfidentes wanted to annex Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo after the independence of Minas Gerais.

Huh, interesting. Even so, I think there would have to be at least another revolt elsewhere in Brazil at the same time for them to succeed, that or a war with Spain.

 

[Taunay]

Huh, interesting. Even so, I think there would have to be at least another revolt elsewhere in Brazil at the same time for them to succeed, that or a war with Spain.

War with Spain? Could you elaborate, I'm pretty interested?

 

[Vinization]

War with Spain? Could you elaborate, I'm pretty interested?

I'm just spitballing, really. IOTL Portugal had some territorial disputes with Spain in South America, and they did go to war with one another in 1801.

 

[Taunay]

I'm just spitballing, really. IOTL Portugal had some territorial disputes with Spain in South America, and they did go to war with one another in 1801.

Cool, how do you think a Portuguese-Spanish war post-Inconfidência would have gone?

 

[Vinization]

Cool, how do you think a Portuguese-Spanish war post-Inconfidência would have gone?

No idea, IOTL the Portuguese won the American theatre of the War of the Oranges pretty decisively, but here they'd definitely be weakened.

 

[Taunay]

No idea, IOTL the Portuguese won the American theatre of the War of the Oranges pretty decisively, but here they'd definitely be weakened.

I'd wager a Portuguese victory, but a narrow one

 

[Taunay]

@Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro Help?

 

[Taunay]

Bizarre alternative: The 1964 coup results in a civil war, and with an alternative pro-democracy governor, Minas Gerais becomes (temporarily) it's own country

 

[Gukpard]

@Gukpard @Guilherme Loureiro Help?

Sorry, I have no idea

 

[unprincipled peter]

I'm just spitballing, really. IOTL Portugal had some territorial disputes with Spain in South America, and they did go to war with one another in 1801.

They also went at it in 1735, 1762, and 1776, although these are all prior to your suggested POD.

The country also went through several separatist movements during Pedro I's time, and the regency period/early reign of Pedro II. I'd have to go back and refamiliarize myself with that period, but IIRC, that period does seem ripe for balkanization, which I think is a co-requisite for an independent Minas Gerais. At a minimum, I think MG has to annex/partner up with a coastal state.

Should the French Revolution/Napoleon Wars and/or the Iberian War be avoided, this also completely changes the history of Brazil, so the slate is blank to write a scenario. The world becomes almost unrecognizable, though, and this almost seems like cheating.

Kudos to any who actually knew where Minas Gerais is without opening the thread.

 

[Taunay]

The country also went through several separatist movements during Pedro I's time, and the regency period/early reign of Pedro II. I'd have to go back and refamiliarize myself with that period, but IIRC, that period does seem ripe for balkanization, which I think is a co-requisite for an independent Minas Gerais. At a minimum, I think MG has to annex/partner up with a coastal state.

Agree, the Regency was the perfect time for balkanized Brazil.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

The most obvious POD, for me at least, would be for the Inconfidência Mineira to actually kick off instead of being discovered. For this, two things are necessary: first the derrama (a new tax which was the subject of much fearful speculation and was supposed to be the pretext the rebels would use to rise up) needs to be actually implemented, and Silvério dos Reis needs to keep his mouth shut. However, even if the revolt succeeds at first and the rebels take over Minas Gerais, they'd be completely isolated from any potential foreign allies, since the Portuguese would still control the rest of Brazil and all its ports. Plus, they'd be able to attack from multiple directions.

@Guilherme Loureiro

That's my analysis of the situation as well. I'd add that the revolt succeeding in Minas Gerais is a long shot as well.

 

[ramones1986]

Wait a minute, it reminds me of a certain thread.

 

[Taunay]

That's my analysis of the situation as well. I'd add that the revolt succeeding in Minas Gerais is a long shot as well.

Thank you for the analysis

 

[Taunay]

Wait a minute, it reminds me of a certain thread.

Thank you, I'll read it