AHC: Independent Manchuria

I wasn't sure if I should post this here, or in the pre-1900 section since it kind of straddles the timeframe. I decided that since part of it goes after 1900 I should just put it here.

Your challenge is to create an independent Manchuria with a PoD no earlier than the First Opium War (1839) and no later than the end of the Warlord Era (1928). Bonus points for the following:

* Manchu is the official language of the state and is the primary language of a majority of the inhabitants.
* The Qing dynasty has nothing to do with the state, or if they do there is no claim to the Chinese Empire.
* It survives until present day.
* By present day the state is modernized to a level similar to OTL South Korea.
* The state owns both Outer and Inner Manchuria.
* The state is truly independent, not a puppet regime (IE no early Manchukuo)
* Extra bonus points if the state is not a monarchy
 
It might plausibly occur if the Qing Dynasty falls during the Taiping Rebellion or another concurrent rebellion, and they are forced to flee to their homeland.

But, by that time by all accounts the Manchu gentry even from Manchuria had become mostly Chinese-speaking, and Chinese-speaking peasants had become the majority in its cities and had settled in its more fertile farmland.

The Aisin Gioro would advertise themselves as "Northern Qing" to its Han Chinese majority, while claiming its goal to retake all of China. It claims the regime that has taken power south of the Great Wall is illegitimate for whatever reason it could find. While its official language remains Manchu, Chinese is by default the language of communication and gradually becomes the most prominent language.

Realizing that technological backwardness was a major cause in its demise, the Aisin Gioro decide to "Meiji", which is much easier thanks to its enormous of coal and iron deposits. Some members of the clan hope that by industrializing, the Northern Qing could build a modern army to reconquer all of China, but others merely seek to industrialize Manchuria and abandon any pretense of reconquest.

Also realizing that support from the Han Chinese is critical for the survival of the regime and the industrialization of the state, the Aisin Gioro gradually permit more Han Chinese to enter the civil service and promote intermarriage as long as they Manchuify.

By the 1870-80s, with China itself still in disarray after civil war and whatever cultural madness that occurred, and with Japan merely starting its own reforms, Manchuria seems a pretty attractive place and is the #1 industrial power in Asia and #5 in the world (after the UK, US, Germany, France).
 

Kaze

Banned
1. Boxer Rebellion goes badly... Follow the above post.
2. Xinhai Revolution goes differently.
Puyi negotiates to take his court north to Manchuria, by treaty he takes control of Manchuria, and rules it until his death in 1967. Then follow the above post.
 
^ The problem with a POD in the 20th century is that Chinese nationalism had evolved from a strict ethno-nationalism - where only Han are real Chinese and therefore the non-Han parts of the empire weren't part of China - to a more multiethnic vision. This means a Boxer Rebellion POD would lead to a rump Qing Dynasty being an earlier, Russian-backed Manchukuo. The rest of China is presumably divided into several imperial powers, which have to spend enormous blood and treasure to keep under wraps.

A Xinhai Revolution led by Chinese nationalists would refuse to allow Manchuria's independence, since by definition it views Manchuria as integral to the nation as Shandong. Maybe things go differently (Yuan Shikai kidnaps Puyi and heads straight to Mukden), but that would simply bring forward the Warlord Era.
 
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