The Karamanli of Libya were an interesting bunch to say the least. They arrived in Libya in 1711, their founder was a Janissary, and seized the governorship of Libya (then the Ottoman province of Tripolitania) and ruled it as a functionally independent state until the 1830s. Their last ruler, Yusuf Pasha, of “the shores of Tripoli” fame, took major steps to strengthen and industrialise his country. However due to his increasingly tyrannical conduct and his over-reliance on the slave trade for tax revenue his regime fell apart in the 1830s. My challenge to you is to have a Karamanli ruled Tripolitania survive the Scramble for Africa.
AHC: Independent Karamanli Libya
- Thread starter Ana Luciana II
- Start date
Yusuf Karamanli needs to first take care of the succession problem which undid his dynasty. I wouldn't know how you go about it whether you kill, imprison or exile the two other sons of his in favor of his designated successor Ali II. I'd curry favor with the Alawiyya in Egypt as a counter to a potential Ottoman invasion.
Alawiyya support would definitely help. It might also make sense to foster closer relations with a major Western power to counter inevitable Italian monkeyshines once they unify.
I think slavery will be a big issue, and something they’ll come under increasing pressure to abolish, but it’s not an insurmountable problem. King Radama of Madagascar was able to get weapons and British support in return for a campaign against slavery, could the Karamanli do the same?
Agreed.
Britain would probably be the best partner for the Karamanli. Get some aging Napoleonic veteran officers to turn the Tripolitanian army into a modern force. The slavery is a big stickler but I think the British would overlook it for a bit so long as the Karamanli keep it "out of mind, out of sight." It won't look good but the Karamanli could offer one of the ports as a British naval base. It'd be secondary to Malta, no doubt but it'll be a stopping point for British ships, especially once the Suez Canal is built.
Now an interesting development of an independent Tripolitania (and presumably Libya) is that maybe pan-Arabism is butterflied away. The Karamanli would foster the development of a Libyan Arabic that is perhaps recognized as its own language. Maybe they would push themselves as being the heirs of Carthage and Phoenicia in opposition to the Italians playing up re-establishing the Roman Fourth Shore at their expense.
One big question is, what on Earth is the Libyan economy supposed to run on when the trade of enslaved people inevitably dries up? That will make or break the country, since any modernization effort will cost a lot of money.
An interesting point - maybe as @Sarufiyyun says they can lease a port to the British (Benghazi or Tobruk?) in return for financial compensation.
Some areas of Libya are actually quite lush (Kufra for instance) so agriculture could be a minor export.
As you say though abolition of slavery is going to take a massive toll on the economy when it eventually comes.
Last edited:
Tripolitania is pretty much going to be an economic backwater until oil is discovered. That would also be a good thing because if Tripolitania is perceived as not worth it, it may avoid European conquest like much of Africa in the nineteenth century.
GuildedAgeNostalgia
Gone Fishin'
- Perhaps if they send expeditions to Lake Chad and set up a colony there they can revitalize the Trans Saharan Trade. Gold, Salt, Ivory, other luxuries.
- Glass manufacturing (they have the sand for it)?
- Agriculture. Coastal region is nice enough for it and they have vast amounts of ground water in the Sahara. And given their small population they could be next food exporters.
- Mercenaries. Have the Sultan have a massive army that he rents out to Europeans.
If the Karamanlis have European (likely British) advisors modernize their army, they can sicc them after the Bornu Empire and easily conquer them. A safe bet to maintain control over the area would be establishing a railroad from Tripoli to Lake Chad.
I find it very likely that Libya will simply fall under European colonial dominance at some point - we're talking about an incredibly poor, divided country, without the ties to the Ottoman state that prevented major colonial action until 1911 - given it's worthless I don't imagine it's a high priority, but by the same token, if the era of New Imperialism takes place its fate is sealed, and indeed, even if it does not, the country is likely to both a) become very indebted very quickly over the century and b) to be unable to resist or to rally support from other great powers to maintain the status quo.
See I just don’t agree with this assessment. I admit it would be difficult, very difficult, for an independent Libya to survive. But falling under European domination does not necessarily mean an end to independence. Egypt was a British puppet state yet retained autonomy and its monarchy.
And even repelling foreign invasion is not impossible. Omar al-Mukhtar’s revolt successfully pushed the Italians out for the better part of a decade. It took a very concerted military effort to suppress his revolt.
Furthermore it’s a drastic oversimplification to say it is worthless. At the very least it is valuable for its port cities and (when the time comes) it’s oil reserves, not to mention its potential as a net exporter of food due to its abundance of arable land and relatively small population.
I think when we talk about Libya it’s easy to dismiss it’s potential due to the chronic mismanagement of first the Italians and then Qaddafi. The potential is there however hard it might be the harness.