What if Hawai'i stayed independent and a monarchy? How will that affect our history?
It would certainly be a target for the Japanese during World War II, since this time attacking Hawaii wouldn't mean an automatic declaration of war from the US.
would the japanese bother though?
if hawaii was never part of the us, then there wouldnt be a well stocked and supplied naval base or any strategic value (if they didnt want to go to war with the us...hawaii was chosen cos its a jumping point)
so apart from some scenic views, some plantations and a bit of a sea border extension, what would be the point?
But that would mean that:
1. Hawai'i has to be an American ally.
2. Pearl Habour will still be a major naval base of the USN.
2. The Pacific War will still happen.
1. It probably would be, if it were being dominated by white businessmen.
2. Pearl Harbor probably wouldn't be built. I was going more for the idea that if Hawaii was still independent during WWII, they probably would let the US Navy use their ports or have a situation like Iceland during WWII come about.
3. I'm assuming it or an analog of it will based on the fact that expansionist attitudes in Japan would probably not be butterflied away (or are already gaining steam before the POD if its after the Meiji Restoration) and that American & European nations will want to hang on to their territory in the Pacific rather than let Japan take them over.
An easy way to do this is to have the American colonies repeatedly fail, or to have the French win the Seven Years War, or fight the Brits to a standoff.
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Also, do you really think that the Hawaiians could have beaten the Americans?
A 'republic' equals white oligarchy rule, which means eventual annexation. Have Grover Cleveland recognise the monarchy, scold the the oligarchs and sign a 50 year treaty guaranteeing independence, say in exchange for a base at Pearl Harbour.
The Imperialists get what they want, a mid-Pacific port, and the gurantee will severly hinder any attempt at annexation, namely due to British and Japanese interests in the nominally independent Hawaiian economy. They will certainly have far less leverage than the Americans but with the main strategic goal of Pearl Harbour already taken, the Imperialist cause is incredibly thin.
Also if the *Spanish-American War still kicks off, the US will gain island colonies even further into the Pacific, making the calls for Hawaiian annexation even weaker. A few decades of the status quo and the oligarch movement will be seen as a historical curiousity and terribly un-American.
It wouldn't be at all difficult to have an independent Hawai'i as a British Protectorate, I'm sure. Of course, depending on HOW 'protected' it was, you might not consider it 'independent'.