AHC: Independent Finland without a Civil War

It has struck me that the Finnish Civil War seems underused in AH. With that in mind, I present the following challenge: create a scenario with a POD no earlier than 1916 that has Finland still be independent, but avoid the Civil War. This is to be done without overly altering the course of the Great War itself (in other words, the USA must still intervene, and Germany must still lose), though the Russian Civil War is fair game if that proves necessary.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Hmm, avoid the Russian civil war, have Kerenski surrender to the Germans in a Bretsk- Litovsk like deal, and have Finland declare independent as a result.
(The Class struggle was very intense in Finland, and the Reds got their inspiration from what was happening in Russia, the only way I see out of the situation is if there is no revolution in Russia).
 
I think the October Revolution or a similar event that can be interpreted as a collapse of the continuity and legitimacy of the Russian government is needed for giving Finland a excuse to declare independence. Otherwise the Finnish parliament might just drag its feet and wait for the Russian Constituent Assembly to decide on the status of Finland. This might have well happened had the Bolsheviks not taken power.

On the other hand, the instability in Petrograd contributed in creating both a power vacuum and a Right/Nationalist-Left/Revolutionary polarization in Finland: this was the most important prerequisite for the Civil War. The Finnish Socialists, who were mostly non-revolutionary, had to be in the end goaded by the Bolsheviks to revolt at all. But at this point the powers-that-be were so weak that there was no counter to the revolt in Southern Finland before the White army was created up north.

I'll say one answer to the problem would be an earlier Red revolt in Finland. Make it happen during spring-summer 1917, maybe even coinciding with the July Days. At this point the left had not radicalized enough that the majority of the SDP would support the revolutionaries. Thus, one might see some Russian revolutionary soldiers and much weaker (than IOTL) Red Guards fight -and lose to- both bourgeois militia and moderate Socialist Order Guards in Helsinki and other towns. If were lucky, this could lead to a situation in which the majority of the SDP takes a public stand against revolution and gains some trust within the right. The revolutionary fringe is marginalized and many of its supporters either turn their coats or board trains or ships for Russia.

The "Summer Revolt" could be an eye-opener to make the people realize that open Civil War would be a disaster for all sides.This might lead into a sort of "national unity senate" being formed by moderate groups across the political divide after the elections in October 1917. An early "Red Earth" coalition, maybe? Or possibly either a Socialist or a bourgeois one that is nevertheless supported/tolerated by the moderate majority.

Many grievances of the left could be decided then and there - IOTL, for example, the eight hour working day was accepted in the parliament in July 1917, as were new municipal laws based on universal suffrage. In December, with the events in Russia and the wider world progressing as IOTL, this "national unity senate" could then declare independence roughly in the same schedule Svinhufvud's senate did. The SDP would be hesitant, but maybe they could be persuaded to go with the decision.

This chain of events borders on the utopic - it would require several lucky breaks and the senate should succeed in maintaining a semblance of authority. It also disregards the dismal food situation, which according to a large consensus built up a lot of the support for revolution during 1917. The result would also leave a crowd in both far left and right itching for a confrontation: the 20s and 30s in this Finland might get much more tumultous than in the OTL "First Republic".
 
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