AHC: independent Fiji and Samoa in 1930

[trurle]

Alternative history challenge: make independent Fiji and Samoa (including American Samoa) in 1930-1940. May also include greater independence for Tonga and Gilbert and Ellice Islands (Tuvalu), and other Pacific islands not specifically listed here. Also, how such independence will affect the Pacific theatre of the WWII? Will fighting in Pacific start at all?

Island states seeking an independence may ally with any power, European or non-European. POD limitation - must happen after 1 January 1900.

Some links pointing on contributing factors:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mau_movement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apolosi_Nawai
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hare–Hawes–Cutting_Act
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Tonga_(1900–70)
https://books.google.co.jp/books?id...ess of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands&f=false
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showpost.php?p=11671766&postcount=13

Any ideas?

 

[jsb]

What islands are covered?

What about the Marianas etc held by Japan? Without them a relief of PI might work or at least be planned?

 

[trurle]

What islands are covered?

What about the Marianas etc held by Japan? Without them a relief of PI might work or at least be planned?

I was thinking mostly about South Pacific. Japanese South Pacific Mandate (Palau, Marshall Islands, Mariana islands, Micronesia) islands can be also included if their independence arise plausibly from the same Alternative TL as the independence of Fiji and Samoa.

To my opinion, Fiji/Samoa was the weakest link in colonial system on Pacific (as evidenced by nearby Tonga preserving a partial independence). Starting independence wave from Japanese mandate will be much harder.

 

[Shinsu]

If the POD has to be after 1900 I really don't see how that would work. Samoa was split between the U.S and Germany. You would need to prevent the Tripartite Convention of 1899 from occurring which split Samoa between Germany and the U.S.

The U.K has Fiji as a colony since 1874 and if not the U.K then the U.S would have likely taken it over (The British refused to annex it in 1852 and the King of Fiji has mounting debts to the U.S).

 

[trurle]

If the POD has to be after 1900 I really don't see how that would work. Samoa was split between the U.S and Germany. You would need to prevent the Tripartite Convention of 1899 from occurring which split Samoa between Germany and the U.S.

The U.K has Fiji as a colony since 1874 and if not the U.K then the U.S would have likely taken it over (The British refused to annex it in 1852 and the King of Fiji has mounting debts to the U.S).

Well, preventing colonization of Fiji and Samoa was likely impossible. Partitioning of Samoa in 1899 takes root in decisions of 1870-1880 period. If we place POD so far in the past, even WWI may be butterflied away, resulting in very broad discussion, what i would prefer to avoid. But there was a distinct possibility of popular revolt overthrowing colonial rule in the interwar period. Both Fiji and Samoa had social structures stabilized from the top by few collaborationist chiefs, so they may be susceptible to communistic or other radical ideology. But i lack the context. Why Samoan Mau movement turned to be pacifistic IOTL? What happened with Apolosi Nawai on Fiji in 1930? Role of Indian indentured workers? Reaction of US on revolt on New Zealand Samoa? What if sequence of rebellions reverses? (i.e. American Samoa first). Reaction of Tongan king? Position of Japan? Implications for Philippines? How fast political will to hold colonies have faded interwar? ... the list of unknowns can be extended indefinitely.

 

[Shinsu]

But there was a distinct possibility of popular revolt overthrowing colonial rule in the interwar period. Both Fiji and Samoa had social structures stabilized from the top by few collaborationist chiefs, so they may be susceptible to communistic or other radical ideology.

But they are small islands with very little population American Samoa had 6,000 in 1900, Fiji had 120,000, and German Samoa had 37,000. Even if you were able to get the population to rise up and try to rid themselves of colonial rule they would be crushed. It would have to be a diplomatic process.

The Mau movement was a mostly peaceful movement in the first place even more so after the Black Saturday event. New Zealand wasn't worried about using force to "keep the peace"

Edit: I'm just suggesting that you focus on a diplomatic resolution that would not only give these islands their independence but also give them protection by their former empires. You could try to find a way for something along the lines of Kiribati to be formed with these islands. Or an independent form of Micronesia that acted as a buffer territory between the colonial empires.

 

[trurle]

But they are small islands with very little population American Samoa had 6,000 in 1900, Fiji had 120,000, and German Samoa had 37,000. Even if you were able to get the population to rise up and try to rid themselves of colonial rule they would be crushed. It would have to be a diplomatic process.

The Mau movement was a mostly peaceful movement in the first place even more so after the Black Saturday event. New Zealand wasn't worried about using force to "keep the peace"

Diplomatic process or proxy war, if you list all options. Divisions between European powers or between Europe and Japan can be exploited.
About NZ willingness to let Western Samoa to go, the use of force is not the indication of strong motivation.
See "Tides of History: The Pacific Islands in the Twentieth Century", p. 173
Or remember the Algeria, where the force was used well after popular opinion in France have turned to support of Algerian independence.

Edit: I do not clearly understand. What to do "along the lines of Kiribati"? Use the islands as test sites for nuclear weapons? Do mass forced re-settlement? Force country partition? (Gilbert and Ellis Islands Colony -> Kiribati + Tuvalu)
On the other hand, you partially right. Tonga had the British "protection" to keep the "independence". Not very much though..see
https://ojs.lib.byu.edu/spc/index.php/PacificStudies/article/viewFile/9192/8841

One more interesting link: "Protest and Dissent in the Colonial Pacific" By Peter J. Hempenstall, Noel Rutherford
https://books.google.co.jp/books?id...KHRNHA24Q6AEIOzAF#v=onepage&q=Kautaha&f=false

 

[Shinsu]

Diplomatic process or proxy war, if you list all options. Divisions between European powers or between Europe and Japan can be exploited.
About NZ willingness to let Western Samoa to go, the use of force is not the indication of strong motivation.
See "Tides of History: The Pacific Islands in the Twentieth Century", p. 173
Or remember the Algeria, where the force was used well after popular opinion in France have turned to support of Algerian independence.

You would then need their to be a situation that leads to a proxy war within the 30-40 year span that you're talking then. Would need a reason for Japan to be willing to pick on massive naval powers instead of China as well.

Edit: And I mean an union/nation like Kiribati. Really only needed if you want to add more much small island chains together.