AHC: Independent Constantinople microstate.

With a PoD after 1900, have Constantinople/Istanbul be an independent microstate similar to Andorra, Monaco, etc.

And what would be the likely religious / cultural make-up of such a country?
 
You could conceivably get an independent Istanbul out of an alternate dismemberment/collapse of the Ottoman Empire (think something similar to a successful Treaty of Sevres), but it wouldn't look anything like Andorra or Monaco--those states have populations measured in the tens of thousands, whereas Istanbul started the 20th century with hundreds of thousands of people and ended it with millions, meaning that its size alone puts it out of that class. The more obvious comparison for such a country, an ethnically and religiously mixed city-state on a major sealane, is Singapore. Demographically, without Turkey's efforts to drive out its Orthodox minority, it would retain Ottoman-era Constantinople's ethnically and religiously mixed character, and as a city-state with ties to and presumably a military presence from whatever European state or group of states ended up running it after the Ottomans fell, it would have a much larger expat population.
 
Either during or in the immediate aftermath of World War II, the Soviet Union decides to press its territorial claims against Turkey and invades the country. The Turks are crushed, and as part of the settlement, Istanbul is directly annexed by the USSR (Turkish Thrace is granted to Bulgaria).

The Soviet Union collapses at some point down the line, but rather than staying with Russia or being retaken by Turkey, Istanbul/Constantinople, with its complex ethnic mix of Greeks, Slavs, Turks, and others, defaults into independent city-state status.
 
Either during or in the immediate aftermath of World War II, the Soviet Union decides to press its territorial claims against Turkey and invades the country. The Turks are crushed, and as part of the settlement, Istanbul is directly annexed by the USSR (Turkish Thrace is granted to Bulgaria).

The Soviet Union collapses at some point down the line, but rather than staying with Russia or being retaken by Turkey, Istanbul/Constantinople, with its complex ethnic mix of Greeks, Slavs, Turks, and others, defaults into independent city-state status.

It could be another Kaliningrad.
 
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