AHC: Improve the Polish performance in 1939

Ideas propose
  • Allow me to summarize everything we have said so far in order to improve the Polish performance in 1939 with minor and plausible PODs which can be easily implemented for a Polish government whose funds and hinsight remain limited:

    So Hispano-Suiza getting a little less greedy and a simplified PZL 23 in order to help Polish Air Force in a relatively cheap way (better fighters with better engines and slighly more light bombers).


    Better AT capacities. more 37mm bofors and more AT rifles allocated to each units. Again a plausible solution and not the costliest one.


    More support from others countries. Perhaps a deal with USSR in order to make them wait. The longer Stalin waits, the longer the Germans are bled in Poland. Securing Slovakian neutrality with a minor POD in the 1920 which could secure decent relationship with Czechoslovakia and later Slovakia if 1938 then March 1939 happen. If possible, trying to turn Romania into a full ally when war comes in order to get troops and perhaps Entente forces trying to create another front against Germany with limited ressources (a few divisions and air assets in order to reinforce Romania, basically a Caparthian version of Norway).

    Hampering German advances by any means necessary, notably by destroying every bridge in order to get precious hours to allowing the Poles to gather ressources to carry on the struggle.

    Relocating the Lodz Army further East in order to create a shortened and more cohesive frontline.

    Developping Polish Infantry firepower by perhaps getting a viable semi-auto rifle, producing a licensed Japanese "knee mortar" and creating heavy mortar battalions like in Finnish Army. A good idea to complete Polish Infantry Armament in a relatively cheap way IMHO.
     
    Summary of proposals. Part II
  • Okay, so I read your comments and I'm going to summarize what you said plus giving a few ideas of mine If you allow me to do so. Soooo....

    -First of all, let's give some informations about Poland's ability to produce war material:
    -Between 1933 and 1939, Poland produced 550 fighters (including 200 sold to foreign countries), 300 light bombers (including 50 sold to Bulgaria), 136 medium bombers, around 800 training aircraft and around 300 reco and army cooperation aircraft.
    -Between 1931 and 1939, Poland produced 145 medium tanks (7TP and 9TP) and 575 TK tankettes plus 450 artillery tractors and 100 armoured cars.
    -Between 1935 and 1939, at least 3500 modern AT rifles were produced and delivered.


    For me, and following your advices, Poland would need:

    -600 fighters (500 locally produced PZL 24+ 100 bought from another country: why not the Czech Avia B534, a decent plane for 1939 and not the most expensive). A batch of 50 fighters could produced and sold to Romania like OTL (to improve the relationship and having cash), 250 simplified light bombers (simplifying the PZL 23 thus gaining money) plus selling 50 more light bombers to Romania. Nothing change for the rest.
    -400 Tanks: 200 produced locally (7TP) and 200 bought (French R40 like OTL and perhaps 100 Czech LT35). The number of tankettes would be reduced to 500, thus gaining money but 100 of these would be converted with a 20mm gun (instead of 24 OTL).
    -MORE AT Rifles, at least 7000. Possibly more knee mortars (like Wiking said).
    -More AA guns as long as it remains financially possible. Keeping the Armoured trains but protecting ordinary trains with AA units, thus rendering the logistics more effective.


    -The Navy:
    3 destroyers instead of 4 OTL. Thus 3 Grom class destroyers would be good. Still one large minelayer but 6 submarines instead of 5. Instead of 5 big submarines, 6 modern and smaller subs better suited to the North and Baltic Seas would be good (perhaps dutch or british design). Again, we're gaining money here we can spend elsewhere.

    -The Diplomacy:
    Poland needs to build a good relationship with Czechoslovakia (and buying war material won't hurt), notably by forgetting its claims over Czech lands. A relative friendship with the Czech could give a relative friendship with the Slovaks after 1939, thus securing the Carpathians. Poland could say to Hungary "if you're going against them, you're going against us". At the same time, Poland needs to improve its alliance with Romania as it could be useful in "neutralizing Hungary" and in getting Slovakia's tacital gratitude, which will help a lot when September 1939 will come.
    -Poland NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS French financial support from 1936 onwards: French loans will finance Polish modest rearmament program.
    -Poland NEEDS NEEDS NEEDS to delay Soviet intervention in September 1939. Every week the Soviets decide to wait is a week where the Germans are bleeding in Poland.
    -IF POSSIBLE: Romania goes full Entente, joining Poland, France and Britain in September (I believe they considered the option during the Polish campaing. Once Poland falls, Romania becomes an another front for Germany, sucking up precious ressources and buying precious time for France. If France and Britain send air support and 6 Divisions, Romania can hold the Carpathians with its Army and Polish survivors from the Lwow Bridgehead.

    POLISH BATTLEPLAN:
    -FOLLOW the Weygand plan: abandon Poznan and concentrate your efforts in defending a VISTULA-WARTA line, thus shortening your frontline. The Lodz Army MUST NOT be so damn close to the border. The Pormoze Army MUST NOT be in the Polish Corridor but behind the Vistula.
    -Poland must mobilize earlier and thus having 30 Infantry Divisions, 9 reserve Divisions, 3 Mountain Brigades. Thanks to more tanks, Poland COULD in theory convert 6 Cavalry Brigades into 6 Motorized Cavalry Brigades, each with one tank battalion and 2 motorized cavalry regiments (basically battalions). The 7 others brigades remain classical Cavalry Brigades. These 39 Divisions and 16 Brigades are divided between the 6 Armies of OTL.
    -Prepare to blow every bridge in Western Poland. Summer was hot in 1939 and some rivers had dried but it will buy time as the German Panzers will be slightly slowed down.
    -Romanian Bridgehead as OTL.
    -Convince Gamelin to be a little but just a little bolder with the Saar Offensive.

    POSSIBLE OUTCOME
    -Poland will fall.
    -Germany will have a relatively bloody nose. Polish Air Force will be defeated but will still bleed the Luftwaffe and they will bleed it more than OTL.
    -Germany will have serious problems initially at breaking through the Polish lines. Of course it will happen but it will cost more men and time.
    -The Bzura Counter offensive against a more exhausted ennemy could have greated results. Slightly more mechanized units will help.
    -The Pormoze and Modlin Army, forming a more compact frontline, will resist for a time against the German Army Group North.
    -After a month, the Polish Forces, tired and bloodied, will begin to retreat and to abandon central Poland but with luck, the German won't be able to create large pockets like OTL.
    -More Polish forces reach Lwow and have Romanian and later Entente support.
    -Gamelin is just a little bolder and the Saar Offensive, while not a success (I agree with Wiking here) will take more German territory (just a little) and will concern the OKH which will send divisions from the East to the West.
    -Poland falls after three months at best if the USSR doesn't interve before but large numbers of Polish troops have reached Romania where the Armies of the four Entente countries organize the defence against Germany (and possibly Hungary). Germany needs to devote ressources after a relatively costly campaign in Poland for a war in winter in the Carpathians.
    -The West remains a Phony War but France and Britain are rearming. With more losses in Poland and Romania possibly a second front. Will Germany be confident enough to launch FALL GELB in May? Then time begins to flow and the butterflies to flap their wings.

    CONCLUSION?
     
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