AHC: Improve the Polish performance in 1939

POLISH BATTLEPLAN:
-FOLLOW the Weygand plan: abandon Poznan and concentrate your efforts in defending a VISTULA-WARTA line, thus shortening your frontline. The Lodz Army MUST NOT be so damn close to the border. The Pormoze Army MUST NOT be in the Polish Corridor but behind the Vistula.
-Poland must mobilize earlier and thus having 30 Infantry Divisions, 9 reserve Divisions, 3 Mountain Brigades. Thanks to more tanks, Poland COULD in theory convert 6 Cavalry Brigades into 6 Motorized Cavalry Brigades, each with one tank battalion and 2 motorized cavalry regiments (basically battalions). The 7 others brigades remain classical Cavalry Brigades. These 39 Divisions and 16 Brigades are divided between the 6 Armies of OTL.
-Prepare to blow every bridge in Western Poland. Summer was hot in 1939 and some rivers had dried but it will buy time as the German Panzers will be slightly slowed down.
-Romanian Bridgehead as OTL.


I still insist on the offensive against Eastern Prussia. It's not important that crack units be used there, nor that it takes Koenigsberg; it's important that the Germans lose ground, fear losing more, and are seen doing so.

-Convince Gamelin to be a little but just a little bolder with the Saar Offensive.


More about this below.


POSSIBLE OUTCOME
-Poland will fall.


What you should really aim for is a lucky sequence of low-probability events. Yes, low-probability, but the German success in Norway also wasn't something I'd bet upon. Thus:

- First week. The Germans largely don't advance as fast as per OTL, take losses, and where they do advance they don't smash Polish units. They also begin losing ground in Eastern Prussia and get bombed in Berlin.
- Second week. The French attack. What motivates them to be bolder isn't some Polish entreaties and pleas, it's the better than OTL Polish performance until now. The French offensive is only slightly more successful than in OTL, but the Germans do worry about it. The Poles, meanwhile, successfully delay the Germans and launch local counterattacks.
Now, for the delicate concatenation of events:
- Third week.
1. because of the above, Stalin decides to wait a bit more before getting involved, and
2. because of this, the planned larger French offensive does get launched; it makes more inroads, albeit in unimportant areas of the Saar, and
3. the German leadership begins to panic. Contrary to the Uebermensch tale, they were perfectly able to, when things did not go finely for them.
- Fourth week. Stalin, seeing the significant French commitment and the Polish stand, decides to postpone again. The French run out of steam, but the Germans are already moving troops from the central reserve to the Western Front - they have low-value, poorly-equipped 4th-Wave units to do so. They also decide to temporarily stop the offensive in Poland and to reinforce the East Prussian garrisons.
- Fifth week. The frontlines congeal everywhere. The Germans have run out of 37mm tank and anti-tank gun ammo, and their Panzer force is seriously attrited. They can still win, but they realize they'll have to revert to mainly infantry-and-artillery tactics. They are also pretty shaken.
Time for the Allies to make some serious proposal to Stalin.

Mind you, it's not likely. And even once all the above has happened, the Germans can still win, in more time. But this sequence has a chance of happening, with all the changes mentioned above.
 

I still insist on the offensive against Eastern Prussia. It's not important that crack units be used there, nor that it takes Koenigsberg; it's important that the Germans lose ground, fear losing more, and are seen doing so.



More about this below.



What you should really aim for is a lucky sequence of low-probability events. Yes, low-probability, but the German success in Norway also wasn't something I'd bet upon. Thus:

- First week. The Germans largely don't advance as fast as per OTL, take losses, and where they do advance they don't smash Polish units. They also begin losing ground in Eastern Prussia and get bombed in Berlin.
- Second week. The French attack. What motivates them to be bolder isn't some Polish entreaties and pleas, it's the better than OTL Polish performance until now. The French offensive is only slightly more successful than in OTL, but the Germans do worry about it. The Poles, meanwhile, successfully delay the Germans and launch local counterattacks.
Now, for the delicate concatenation of events:
- Third week.
1. because of the above, Stalin decides to wait a bit more before getting involved, and
2. because of this, the planned larger French offensive does get launched; it makes more inroads, albeit in unimportant areas of the Saar, and
3. the German leadership begins to panic. Contrary to the Uebermensch tale, they were perfectly able to, when things did not go finely for them.
- Fourth week. Stalin, seeing the significant French commitment and the Polish stand, decides to postpone again. The French run out of steam, but the Germans are already moving troops from the central reserve to the Western Front - they have low-value, poorly-equipped 4th-Wave units to do so. They also decide to temporarily stop the offensive in Poland and to reinforce the East Prussian garrisons.
- Fifth week. The frontlines congeal everywhere. The Germans have run out of 37mm tank and anti-tank gun ammo, and their Panzer force is seriously attrited. They can still win, but they realize they'll have to revert to mainly infantry-and-artillery tactics. They are also pretty shaken.
Time for the Allies to make some serious proposal to Stalin.

Mind you, it's not likely. And even once all the above has happened, the Germans can still win, in more time. But this sequence has a chance of happening, with all the changes mentioned above.
The only unit able and well placed to conduct a counter-offensive in Eastern Prussia is the Modlin Army. The Pomorze Army, even if located behind the Vistula river, will be still forced to hold the line against the Fourth Army and smaller portions of the Third. But the Modlin Army only has 2,5 Infantry Divisions and 2 Cavalry Brigades while the Third Army has the equivalent of 9 Infantry Divisions, one Cavalry Brigade and one PanzerDivision (actually an armoured brigade. And even if some forces of the Third Army are aimed at attacking the Pormoze Army, there are still 4 Infantry Divisions and one Armoured Brigade facing the Poles. And I'm not including the reserves of the Third Army which be easily and quickly sent to counter Polish initiatives if needed (East Prussia had a great railway system in 1914, it didn't change in 1939). So you will need to reinforce the Modlin Army with at least 4 Divisions to turn it into a real offensive force. In which case it's possible.
For your prevision about a possible outcome, I find it rather interesting to be honest. However, I remain pessimistic about Polish chances on the long run and, IMHO, the Romanian Bridgehead will become a military priority sooner or later.
 
The only unit able and well placed to conduct a counter-offensive in Eastern Prussia is the Modlin Army. The Pomorze Army, even if located behind the Vistula river, will be still forced to hold the line against the Fourth Army and smaller portions of the Third. But the Modlin Army only has 2,5 Infantry Divisions and 2 Cavalry Brigades while the Third Army has the equivalent of 9 Infantry Divisions, one Cavalry Brigade and one PanzerDivision (actually an armoured brigade. And even if some forces of the Third Army are aimed at attacking the Pormoze Army, there are still 4 Infantry Divisions and one Armoured Brigade facing the Poles. And I'm not including the reserves of the Third Army which be easily and quickly sent to counter Polish initiatives if needed (East Prussia had a great railway system in 1914, it didn't change in 1939). So you will need to reinforce the Modlin Army with at least 4 Divisions to turn it into a real offensive force. In which case it's possible.

I'm always wary about these "division equivalents". You are counting three Grenz regiments as if they were a division, because a division had three infantry regiments. But an infantry division also had an artillery regiment and many other specialized subunits, which these "equivalents" have no... equivalent for. On top of that, these are generally static units, lacking the vehicles to move from their positions. They are rather effective for defensive fighting on their positions, which they know well and are trained to defend; using them otherwise and elsewhere is never a good idea.
As to the East Prussia reserves, what are they? It seems to me that you have already counted them in your totals. The 1. Kavallerie Brigade and the 217. Infanterie Division are those reserves. On top of that, yes, the Germans also had plenty of fortresses with their garrisons, static artillery etc., but these defended the cities (Königsberg, Lötzen, Danzig itself) and I'm not proposing the Poles reach those.
Yes, the Germans would certainly move minor assets to counter the Polish offensives, and they might even quickly contain them. But it's a propaganda point being made here. Getting a photo of Polish soldiers with their flag in front of the Rathaus of a Eastern Prussian village, even if that's 2 kms from the border in the most remote stretch of it, is good enough.
For the same reason, I wouldn't move sizable Polish assets to this offensive. Add to the Armia Modlin a reserve division and a few ON units, look for the weak spots along the border, and push there even if they have little strategic value. The point is to be on the offensive somewhere.
And if the Germans don't just move bottom-scrap reserves to counter this, but detach a good 1. Welle division from the I. or XXI. Korps, so much the better, one less division moving into Poland.
 
I'm always wary about these "division equivalents". You are counting three Grenz regiments as if they were a division, because a division had three infantry regiments. But an infantry division also had an artillery regiment and many other specialized subunits, which these "equivalents" have no... equivalent for. On top of that, these are generally static units, lacking the vehicles to move from their positions. They are rather effective for defensive fighting on their positions, which they know well and are trained to defend; using them otherwise and elsewhere is never a good idea.
As to the East Prussia reserves, what are they? It seems to me that you have already counted them in your totals. The 1. Kavallerie Brigade and the 217. Infanterie Division are those reserves. On top of that, yes, the Germans also had plenty of fortresses with their garrisons, static artillery etc., but these defended the cities (Königsberg, Lötzen, Danzig itself) and I'm not proposing the Poles reach those.
Yes, the Germans would certainly move minor assets to counter the Polish offensives, and they might even quickly contain them. But it's a propaganda point being made here. Getting a photo of Polish soldiers with their flag in front of the Rathaus of a Eastern Prussian village, even if that's 2 kms from the border in the most remote stretch of it, is good enough.
For the same reason, I wouldn't move sizable Polish assets to this offensive. Add to the Armia Modlin a reserve division and a few ON units, look for the weak spots along the border, and push there even if they have little strategic value. The point is to be on the offensive somewhere.
And if the Germans don't just move bottom-scrap reserves to counter this, but detach a good 1. Welle division from the I. or XXI. Korps, so much the better, one less division moving into Poland.
Point taken, so A Modlin Army with with 3 I.D and 2 Cavalry Brigades. But where should they attack in order to be the most effective (even if the Offensive is a minor one). My guess would be just west of the Mazurian Lakes where the only immediately available German reserve force would be a Cavalry Brigade. Modlin Army attacks with one Division and one Cavalry Brigade when the two others Divisions protect the left flank of this offensive against German Divisions further West. This might work and even prevents the Third Army to try to attack the Pomorze Army, at least for a moment.
 
Point taken, so A Modlin Army with with 3 I.D and 2 Cavalry Brigades. But where should they attack in order to be the most effective (even if the Offensive is a minor one). My guess would be just west of the Mazurian Lakes where the only immediately available German reserve force would be a Cavalry Brigade. Modlin Army attacks with one Division and one Cavalry Brigade when the two others Divisions protect the left flank of this offensive against German Divisions further West. This might work and even prevents the Third Army to try to attack the Pomorze Army, at least for a moment.

Yes, something like that. Or the 3. Armee has to subtract several units and send them to counter this thrust, which they will probably succeed at. But this still throws sand in the well-oiled German machine (making the attack in Pomerania weaker), as well as provides that much-needed positive propaganda for the Poles.
 
Yes, something like that. Or the 3. Armee has to subtract several units and send them to counter this thrust, which they will probably succeed at. But this still throws sand in the well-oiled German machine (making the attack in Pomerania weaker), as well as provides that much-needed positive propaganda for the Poles.
That could work. In that case, Army Pormorze could survive the 4th Army's initial assault if it's well-positioned behind the Vistula River and not force to repulse a big 3rd Army's attack at the same time (if the said Army is busy enough dealing with Army Modlin). If this works, then the road to Warsaw for the Germans in the North for possibly two weeks. Stalin would hesitate to launch its own attack then.
 
If you want decent AA fire from an MG, go for belt fed with a multi-gun (2,3 or 4) mount, preferably water cooled. It covers a relatively large pattern in the sky (note the term "relatively") and being water cooled wont burn the barrels out as easily. Some MG's had large drum mags, which are also good.
 
In hindsight it would have been nice if the Poles had installed some very long range guns in Hel Peninsula, ie the 9.2" guns and turrets from HMS Gorgon or a triple 12" turret from the Russian dreadnought General Alekseyev. IMHO France should have given Wrangel's fleet to Poland.
 
If you want decent AA fire from an MG, go for belt fed with a multi-gun (2,3 or 4) mount, preferably water cooled. It covers a relatively large pattern in the sky (note the term "relatively") and being water cooled wont burn the barrels out as easily. Some MG's had large drum mags, which are also good.
So a double wz30 to serve in light and mobile AA batteries within Infantry Divisions. Against Heinkel it would be of little use but against Stukas and if combined with a few 40mm bofors, it could hurt the diving bombers squadrons pretty hard. Some Messer could be lost as well.

In hindsight it would have been nice if the Poles had installed some very long range guns in Hel Peninsula, ie the 9.2" guns and turrets from HMS Gorgon or a triple 12" turret from the Russian dreadnought General Alekseyev. IMHO France should have given Wrangel's fleet to Poland.
Big guns at Hel are a good idea but you need to build them (expensive for Poland so no) or buy them (cheaper but still expensive). Poland could buy them from sweden (210mm and even a couple of 280mm guns) or from France (in this case, perhaps 305mm guns from the Paris class dreadnoughts or even pre-dread). But I see two problems: the first is insight: Poles don't have this or need to think "Let's do like Estonia: small navy but good coastal defences". The second is that the Germans have pre-dreads which were used OTL against Westerplatte but would be used ITTL against Hel to silence those guns. Or they could simply launch an air raid with stukas like they did against Westerplatte to destroy those guns. The difference between Hel and Westerplatte OTL was that Hel had a pretty strong AA defence system and thus it could cost the Luftwaffe dearly.
 
During the escape of the USN river gun boats of the Yangtze Patrol, at least one of them mounted as many LMG's (Lewis guns, etc etc) on improvised mounts as possible. While derided as weak and ineffective AA weapons (largely true) the VOLUME of fire, coupled with a more liberal usage of tracer ammo (more than the standard 1 in 5) led the attacking IJN aircraft to not press their attacks as closely as they would have, thus saving the RGB. Deterence, making the enemy loose his nerve making an attack a miss is almost as good as damaging or destroying the attacking aircraft. From what I have read, dive bombers are hard to hit once they are in the dives. Coming out however, they are slower and vulnerable. We trained on how to get on target and judge whether our shots were where they should (against aircraft) be by using tracers, but nothing on how to defend against dive bombers, I'm old, but not THAT old.....:)
 
From what I have read, dive bombers are hard to hit once they are in the dives.

I don't think it is quite that simple, and depends on the nature and degree of the dive as well as the nature,disposition and size of the AA weapons and their mounts providing proper aiming positions for the vertical.
 
. From what I have read, dive bombers are hard to hit once they are in the dives. Coming out however, they are slower and vulnerable. We trained on how to get on target and judge whether our shots were where they should (against aircraft) be by using tracers, but nothing on how to defend against dive bombers, I'm old, but not THAT old.....:)
I going to disagree on this one: Stukas were proved to be quite vulnerable while diving. And the sound they made, past the initial terror, was useful for allied soldiers: they could know when to fire depending of the nature of the sound. Plus stukas weren't that sturdy.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
I believe a number of Stukas were shot down by rifle fire during the French campaign, and they kept using them long after they were useful for the shock effect.
 
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