AHC: Improve the living standards on any of the Caribbean Islands

JJohnson

Banned
A number of Caribbean islands, seem to have low standards of living in comparison to that of Western Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, or many places in the United States. What could happen to change that so that by 2013, a person living on any island could easily make the equivalent of a medium or high-wage job, a per capita GDP of at least $30,000, and live in a modest apartment of 900 ft^2 or a 1500 sq. ft. house with air conditioning, and have a relatively stable political environment?
 
There are essentially four big issues that have hindered economic development in the Caribbean.

1. The initial colonial situation of small white minorities and large slave populations, which means we start off with just about every island having at least a plurality of the population who are impoverished in comparison with the rest of the country.

2. Relative lack of natural resources- apart from the plantation crops such as Sugar, Rum, Pineapples etc. there are very few natural resources to build an industrial base on for generating income. Jamaica has Bauxite, there's oil in Trinidad, but otherwise most trade goods are based substantially on a small number of administrators and a large number of labourers/temporary workers.

3. Proponderance of natural disasters, whether it be earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions that have a habit of knocking the stuffing out of places just when they're getting better.

4. American, and later Soviet, interventionism, which has contributed significantly to creating political instability during the 20th century for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Grenada and Central America, as well as leading to stuff like the Cuban blockade.

Now, there's stuff which can be done to help here- tourism is starting to see some improvements, Montserrat would be massively better off it the Soufriere Hils eruption of 1995 hadn't led to the evacuation/flight of two thirds of the population, the Haitian Earthquake of 2010 hammered them hard, and Cuba's economy is only just starting to recover from the loss of trade when the USSR collapsed. CariCom is leading to pretty good returns in terms of economic integration across the Caribbean and looks likely to be able to create some transnational investment. Perhaps it the Federation of the West Indies had been made to work it could have helped get a lot of this sorted earlier, but it's a long shot.

Fundamentally though there's just not the space on most of the islands for much manufacturing beyond luxury goods and some agriculture, so what you need is more sustained economic growth in the west to keep the services industry going.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
You need fewer people living on these islands. They are overpopulated for the amount of natural resources available. Take away a large share of the population (say 60%), and you will still have the tourist industry, fishing industry, agriculture. You will be missing large potions of the poorer slums.

Now how to accomplish this item? Probably have the Dominican Republic attempt to become a USA state be approved by the USA senate. With full citizenship, you will see a lot of these people move to the USA for various economic booms. You have a good chance of getting something as prosperous as the Hawaii. You will also see major, major USA military bases in the area.
 
I think that's a highly naieve statement to make. There's no real reason at the moment why people can't move to the US for jobs, but they don't. Not to mention that unemployment levels on the islands are comparable to large parts of Europe, so it's highly unlikely that the same level of industry could be supported with such a large population drop. Unless you think the solution to Portugal's economy or Lithuania's is to deport over half the population as well.
 
Somehow give Cuba, after the end of Spanish rule, a lasting pattern of honest government (and one without coups)?
 

Deleted member 67076

Don't know about the others, but Hispaniola is rather easy

France cancels the Haitian debt during its independence, or on account of Napoleon, who never decides to create a French Empire in the New World. Instead he tries to turn Haiti into a French Client. As well, butterflies ensure that the French Empire is more successful in Europe, and wins the Napoleonic wars. French Hegemony should ensure (or at least deter) no interference towards Haiti.

As a result, the Haitians do not increase taxes on the Dominican part of the island, and they don't revolt. Due to that, the Haitian economy has much less of a burden (along with greater land and tax base) and is able to grow much better than in OTL. As well, make sure stable government is the norm in Haiti, with no to very little civil wars/coups.

The increased wealth, foreign investment and stability should be able to increase living standards (although I have a hunch much of the wealth will be concentrated in the hands of a few elite)
 
There are parts of the Antilles that aren't that bad.

Trinidad and Tobago has a GDP per capita similar to Mediterranean Europe, Barbados has a HDI higher than Portugal's and I'm sure that the French and the Dutch possessions are only slightly poorer.
 
There are parts of the Antilles that aren't that bad.

Trinidad and Tobago has a GDP per capita similar to Mediterranean Europe, Barbados has a HDI higher than Portugal's and I'm sure that the French and the Dutch possessions are only slightly poorer.

In fact, in general the Caribbean Islands have HDIs on par with Eastern Europe, Russia and Brazil. Turkey's got a lower HDI than everyone except the Dominican Republic.
 
With full citizenship, you will see a lot of these people move to the USA for various economic booms. You have a good chance of getting something as prosperous as the Hawaii. You will also see major, major USA military bases in the area.

Hawaii prosperous? Probably when one looks at it from afar. Its population is way larger than it can support, tho few regions in the world (in general) are not. It is dependent upon one industry and when that suffers the whole economy dips.
 
Somehow give Cuba, after the end of Spanish rule, a lasting pattern of honest government (and one without coups)?

indeed. If we can avoid Castro's revolution and keep American investment in the island going strong, Cuba is likely to thrive. It would likely to be a major vacation site for Americans, Canadians, and Europeans....
 
POD: No 2010 Haitian earthquake
Result: Significantly higher standards of living, median income, and GDP in Haiti

Haiti was a humanitarian disaster long before the earthquake. That's what made the earthquake so devastating in the first place - there was massive overcrowding of poorly-constructed buildings in Port-au-Prince prior to the quake. By contrast, there was an earthquake of similar magnitude just off the coast of Martinique in 2007, and it led to only one death.
 
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I think that's a highly naieve statement to make. There's no real reason at the moment why people can't move to the US for jobs, but they don't.

Actually, they do, in large numbers, in OTL. There are large Cuban, Dominican, Jamaican and Haitian immigrant communities in the U.S., especially around New York and Florida. Canada, the UK and France all have substantial West Indian immigrant populations as well.
 
Actually, they do, in large numbers, in OTL. There are large Cuban, Dominican, Jamaican and Haitian immigrant communities in the U.S., especially around New York and Florida. Canada, the UK and France all have substantial West Indian immigrant populations as well.

I don't think that he's arguing against that, but against Malthusian answer (or "there's too many people there!" argument) to the Caribbean problem which I also see as very naïve and far to simplistic.
 
Actually, they do, in large numbers, in OTL. There are large Cuban, Dominican, Jamaican and Haitian immigrant communities in the U.S., especially around New York and Florida. Canada, the UK and France all have substantial West Indian immigrant populations as well.

I don't think that he's arguing against that, but against Malthusian answer (or "there's too many people there!" argument) to the Caribbean problem which I also see as very naïve and far to simplistic.

Indeed I was. In general, you get immigration from everywhere to everywhere else really (see British expats moving to the West Indies to get better weather. The net migration is certainly towards Britain, but it's not the whole picture).

Basically, if it was as simple as just needing enough people to move to the states, then the problem would have sorted itself out with the natural forces of migration. Obviously as there's not been a massive depopulation and unemployment isn't that far beyond the European average, the causes must be elsewhere.
 
indeed. If we can avoid Castro's revolution
I was definitely thinking of an earlier POD than that: Certainly before the Batista regime, too, for example...
(I don't know enough about Cuba's previous history to say offhand what other OTL governments would have to be avoided, but probably at least the one that Batista himself had replaced.)
 
For Cuba survival of Jose Marti might be a POD. He was able, respected and seemingly honest. If he was first president, he might set a good example and maybe would have been followed by less self-serving and corrupt governments. All OTL Cuban governments were corrupt, in fact first Batista-backed ones after 1933 probably were the least corrupt of all.

Also if cubans actually had won their War of Independence instead of being freed from Spain as a result of US-Spainish war and subsequently turned into US client state. It would not help them much in the beginning, but in the long run with differently constructed ties with US Cuba may turn more prosperous.
 
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