With a POD no later than 1900, make Hungary and Romania have no real tensions between them, even among their nationalistic parties.
AHC: Hungary and Romania as friendly with each other as US and Canada
- Thread starter Achaemenid Rome
- Start date
Zagan
Donor
Well... There are no real tensions between Romania and Bulgaria now, although there were before 1940. Why? Because there were many Bulgarians in Romania (Southern and Northern Dobruja) and very few Romanians in Bulgaria. The Bulgarians wanted Dobruja (all of it or only its Southern part to join Bulgaria). In 1940, Romania cede Southern Dobruja (the Cadrilater) to Bulgaria and a population exchange was performed sending all Romanians (and Aromanians) from Southern Dobruja to Romania and all Bulgarians from Northern Dobruja to Bulgaria. While the forced population exchange was horrible for the people involved (my Grandparents lost their home, lands and livelyhoods and were improperly compensated), it assured a permanent end of Romanian-Bulgarian animosity.
The same thing could have been tried with Hungary in 1919 for example. Draw the border further east (let's say to include Oradea, Satu Mare, Sălaj, Baia Mare, etc in Hungary) and perform a population exchange between the Romanians living in Hungary (in the above mentioned territories and other parts of OTL Hungary with a Romanian minority) and the Hungarians (and Szeklers) living in the rest of Transylvania. Romania could have been compensated with other coveted territories such as Western Banat and Northern Maramureș (with Romanian minorities and Serbian / Ukrainian pluralities / majorities). After a couple of generations, in the absence of trans-border ethnic minorities, the irredentist claims would become the staple of fringe ultranationalist parties scorring less than one percent in elections.
Note: I do not endorse involuntary population exchanges. While they may long-term solve ethnic problems, they are horrible for all those involved.
Is Canada really all that friendly with us? I think of Canada as the level-headed guy who makes nice with his loud, crazy neighbor in order to keep the peace.
Roughly 1941 borders at Trianon, with a population exchange. It's not gonna be pretty, but still better overall for the people on the long run. There's probably going to be bad blood for a few decades, but it might pass. Especially if both countries stay away from the Soviet bloc and become developed economies. Wealth does wonders for these things. TBH, this could also help with relations with (Czecho)Slovakia and Serbia on the long run.
There are precedents elsewhere for compromise borders and forced population exchanges eventually resulting in neutral to positive relationships. I'm reminded of the post-Soviet relationship between Poland and Ukraine, almost unexpectedly friendly, largely as a result of the thorough Stalin-era population exchanges and imposition of a sealed boundary in what had been a contested border region, perhaps aided by mutual concern over common enemies.
In the context of Hungary and Romania, if Hungary had somehow been able to break from Nazi Germany before Romania, it might well have been allowed by Stalin to keep (most of) the territories it gained as a Soviet satellite. There probably would have been population exchanges between Hungary and Romania, followed by the Soviet imposition of a forced peace. Eventually, I suppose that the post-Communist countries would have been left facing the question of whether fighting over border changes imposed decades ago would have made sense.
All this said, I'm not sure that this sort of scenario necessarily requires "fair" boundaries. Instead of a division of Transylvania, I can imagine a simple brutal population exchange, Stalin forcing Transylvania's Magyars to move to Hungary without any corresponding territorial compensation for Hungary. It's not clear to me that this would be likely--Czechoslovakia was not able to deport more than a small proportion of its Magyars to Hungary, perhaps because Nazi satellite Slovakia did not have any clear moral or other advantages over Nazi satellite Hungary--but I suppose it could happen.
Failing this, brutality in the past eventually receding far enough in the past to allow for normal relationships, I suspect that a POD in 1900 is simply too recent. I mentioned Poland and Ukraine above, but the present positive Polish-Ukrainian relationship exists only because Poles and Ukrainians wanted it to exist.
In the context of Hungary and Romania, if Hungary had somehow been able to break from Nazi Germany before Romania, it might well have been allowed by Stalin to keep (most of) the territories it gained as a Soviet satellite. There probably would have been population exchanges between Hungary and Romania, followed by the Soviet imposition of a forced peace. Eventually, I suppose that the post-Communist countries would have been left facing the question of whether fighting over border changes imposed decades ago would have made sense.
All this said, I'm not sure that this sort of scenario necessarily requires "fair" boundaries. Instead of a division of Transylvania, I can imagine a simple brutal population exchange, Stalin forcing Transylvania's Magyars to move to Hungary without any corresponding territorial compensation for Hungary. It's not clear to me that this would be likely--Czechoslovakia was not able to deport more than a small proportion of its Magyars to Hungary, perhaps because Nazi satellite Slovakia did not have any clear moral or other advantages over Nazi satellite Hungary--but I suppose it could happen.
Failing this, brutality in the past eventually receding far enough in the past to allow for normal relationships, I suspect that a POD in 1900 is simply too recent. I mentioned Poland and Ukraine above, but the present positive Polish-Ukrainian relationship exists only because Poles and Ukrainians wanted it to exist.
CaliGuy
Banned
You mean Nazi satellite, correct?
I think that Zagan and rfmcdonald have the right idea here. Specifically, you have to do a population exchange between Hungary and Romania similar to what Greece and Turkey did. Then, if pragmatic leaders come to power in Hungary and Romania, they might be able to make relations between their two countries as good as, say, Polish-German relations are today (indeed, not even the far right in Germany appears to be advocating territorial revisions today!).
CaliGuy
Banned
Yeah--specifically, this could cause Hungary to demand a corridor to this enclave--with Romania vehemently resisting this Hungarian demand!
CaliGuy
Banned
The Romanians are not going to like the Hungarian salient which will result from this, though.
If you look at the map, it's not that much of a salient, it's practically all of Northern Transylvania. I think it could work. An exclave would clearly not, see how that turned out in the Caucasus.
I believe noone assumes that there will be no bad blood. After all, both sides claimed the whole on Transylvania as their ancestral land (they still do, apparently). The above is the most workable compromise which might lead to calming of tensions, which will take at least a generation, no doubt.
No its not. Thats the product of Nazi idiocy. They simply drew a near stright line in the middle of Transylvania with the idea that it will be decided after the war which side gets the whole. It wasnt completly stright because they wanted to give the territory between Kolozsvár and Marosvásárhely for Romania as it had important resources and they judged the Romanians more thrustworthy.
The problem with Transylvania is that in most of it the population was and partly still is mixed usually with a clear romanian majority.
Optimal would have been IMO: They should have given more territory along OTL border - especially around Arad to Hungary and Romania should get more of Transylvania than they got on that map - especially around Beszterce. I would give a corridor around/including Kolozsvár/Cluj to the Szekler territories. And a population exchange would have been necessery.
Or they could have created an independent Transylvania with the stipulation that it cant join neither Romania nor Hungary with all the nationalities including the saxons having their rights guaranteed.
Where would this corridor be? Would that mean a Romanian exclave north of it?
No, a lot of the territory north of Cluj/Kolozsvár would go to Romania - this would be connected to the modavian part of Romania. So no exclave on either side.