AHC: Hundred Days, keep Napoleon on the French throne

Curtain Jerker

Donor
Napoleon came back from exile on Elba on March 1, 1815, landing in the south of France. He was declared an outlaw by the Congress of Vienna and the major European powers each pledged troops and money to depose him and restore the Bourbon dynasty to the French throne soon after Napoleon made landfall.

He ruled France til June 22 when he abdicated and was later sent packing to St. Helena in the South Atlantic.

Your challenge is this: Given a POD no earlier than Louis XVIII abdicating March 20, 1815 when Napoleon entered Paris, ensure that he stays on the throne of France despite the myriad challenges.
 

FillyofDelphi

Banned
Given Europe was explicently declaring a war on him personally as the ultimate threat to European peace (Not France under Napoleon: the man himself) and France is already militarily tapped out after decades of multinational war, I give him statistically insignicant odds. The Allies won't willingly can't be forced to accept his position.
 

alexmilman

FillyofDelphi said:
Given Europe was explicently declaring a war on him personally as the ultimate threat to European peace (Not France under Napoleon: the man himself) and France is already militarily tapped out after decades of multinational war, I give him statistically insignicant odds. The Allies won't willingly can't be forced to accept his position.
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Yes, you’d need a complete reverse of the political course by at least 2 of the Great Powers and one of them better be Prussia (to exclude its part in 100 Days campaign; but keeping in mind their prevailing attitudes close to impossible). With the Brits being probably completely unrealistic, this leaves Russia and Austria. Russia is probably more productive scenario in the military terms but this would need Alexander being hit on a head really hard to recognize potential national interests.
 

jb3

Ivan Lupo said:
Destroying the allies at Waterloo (or somewhere else) would be the first thing he would need to do.
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I just do not see how to make this challenge happen.

Even a "victory" at Waterloo would be Pyrrhic. The French would sustain major losses they could not recoup in any case and the Allies were not going to surrender after having declared unified war on him personally. In 1815, France no longer had the demographic or military edge it did when Napoleon was quashing the various Coalitions. The Hundred Days was a major exercise in hubris not just from Bonaparte but from the Marshals (many of whom had pledged themselves to Louis XVIII and quickly switched sides) and army vets (who were the real source of his return) since they never had a chance and France became an occupied power, pretty much losing any of the gains they had kept after Napoleon's first abdication in the new peace.

Also, unlike previously Napoleon had no allies from which he could call forth foreign troops, no foreign countries to loot to pay French soldiers or refill the French treasury, and a significant royalist presence in places like Bordeaux and the Vendee where he had to re-send troops he could ill-afford to lose to pacify. In the end France had to call upon teenagers to defend the homeland because there were not enough able-bodied men. He was in no position to tell the Allies to keep him on the throne or else (in reality the Allies thought about not putting Louis back on the throne and replace him with the Duke of Orleans, but there was no longer even a thought about a Napoleon II regency under Marie Louise any more as there had been the first time around).
 
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Curtain Jerker

Donor
The more I think about it the tougher it gets. If I'm reading things right even if Napoleon wins the Waterloo campaign going away he's still got to deal with a massive Russian and Austrian army breathing down his neck.

Even if he pulls an Austerlitz out of his bag of tricks that's probably not enough right?
 

Ivan Lupo

Realistically, he's facing a gauntlet match of large armies from the other European powers in quick succession without much opportunity to reinforce his army with men and supplies. A crushing victory over Wellington and Blucher probably results in a total British blockade of France while Austria and Russia tag in to finish the job. And if he manages to crush them, there will be even more armies behind them. However, without first crushing Wellington (and he has to crush him to the best of his ability), there won't even be a sliver of hope to grasp onto.

Turning that sliver into a long-term win is exceedingly difficult and improbable, but not necessarily impossible.
 

Jan Olbracht

Napoleon escape and his100 days should be delayed a bit, that is first condition. Second one: Polish-Saxon Crisis had to lead to war. So we have war between Prussia and Russia on one side, UK, Austria and Bourbon France on the other side, then Nappy escapes, deposes Louis XVIII and France switches sides to Russo-Prussian camp, which in such situation would win the war with 100% certainty.
 

BellaGerant

Jan Olbracht said:
Napoleon escape and his100 days should be delayed a bit, that is first condition. Second one: Polish-Saxon Crisis had to lead to war. So we have war between Prussia and Russia on one side, UK, Austria and Bourbon France on the other side, then Nappy escapes, deposes Louis XVIII and France switches sides to Russo-Prussian camp, which in such situation would win the war with 100% certainty.
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That would require Tsar 'sees Napoleon as "the oppressor of Europe and the disturber of the world's peace" and 'let's start a Holy Alliance to stamp out secularism and liberalism in Europe'' Alexander I to accept Napoleon I onto his side rather than put practical interests to the side, make a temporary peace with Austria and the UK, and attack France to overthrow Napoleon again. In order words, I think you'd need a different Tsar on the throne.
 

jb3

BellaGerant said:
That would require Tsar 'sees Napoleon as "the oppressor of Europe and the disturber of the world's peace" and 'let's start a Holy Alliance to stamp out secularism and liberalism in Europe'' Alexander I to accept Napoleon I onto his side rather than put practical interests to the side, make a temporary peace with Austria and the UK, and attack France to overthrow Napoleon again. In order words, I think you'd need a different Tsar on the throne.
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Probably one of the only ways this challenge could have a chance of happening is if Alexander is replaced with a very different Tsar (Constantine?) before or during the Hundred Days.
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

My suspicion was that Napoleon's escape from Elba was due to intelligence he had received that he would be poisoned or otherwise assassinated there. Otherwise it makes no sense, even for a gambler like himself. Better the 99.9% chance of the Hundred Days thing failing than the 100% chance of being assassinated. The marshals joined because it was Napoleon!

You could maybe do some stuff with a POD before March 1st, 1815, such as removing Provence (Louis XVIII) as the legitimist candidate. After March 1st, the best I can come up with is that Napoleon is captured by the French army before he gets to Paris, put on trial, puts on a good enough of a defense to get public support, is then sent to a French prison instead of being executed (because he wasn't executed IOTL AFTER Waterloo and all he did was return to France), and then without the Waterloo campaign the Congress of Vienna collapses. In the War Among the Coalition, France takes the losing side and a Russian army marches into Paris and takes Louis XVIII back to Russia and installs Orleans as a puppet. Hand wave hand wave hand wave, in the second War Among the Coalition Napoleon gets out of prison and leads a national army of liberation against the Russian occupiers, and is supported by Austria, and there is nothing much the British can do about it. Even here he probably winds up as Constable of France with his son as the nominal Emperor, but this is the best I can do.
 

Curtain Jerker

Donor
Galba Otho Vitelius said:
My suspicion was that Napoleon's escape from Elba was due to intelligence he had received that he would be poisoned or otherwise assassinated there. Otherwise it makes no sense, even for a gambler like himself. Better the 99.9% chance of the Hundred Days thing failing than the 100% chance of being assassinated. The marshals joined because it was Napoleon!

You could maybe do some stuff with a POD before March 1st, 1815, such as removing Provence (Louis XVIII) as the legitimist candidate. After March 1st, the best I can come up with is that Napoleon is captured by the French army before he gets to Paris, put on trial, puts on a good enough of a defense to get public support, is then sent to a French prison instead of being executed (because he wasn't executed IOTL AFTER Waterloo and all he did was return to France), and then without the Waterloo campaign the Congress of Vienna collapses. In the War Among the Coalition, France takes the losing side and a Russian army marches into Paris and takes Louis XVIII back to Russia and installs Orleans as a puppet. Hand wave hand wave hand wave, in the second War Among the Coalition Napoleon gets out of prison and leads a national army of liberation against the Russian occupiers, and is supported by Austria, and there is nothing much the British can do about it. Even here he probably winds up as Constable of France with his son as the nominal Emperor, but this is the best I can do.
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That's pretty good actually. Would be a fun timeline to read. Still involves a lot of handwavium but Napoleon was in a bad spot in 1815.
 

alexmilman

Jan Olbracht said:
Napoleon escape and his100 days should be delayed a bit, that is first condition. Second one: Polish-Saxon Crisis had to lead to war. So we have war between Prussia and Russia on one side, UK, Austria and Bourbon France on the other side, then Nappy escapes, deposes Louis XVIII and France switches sides to Russo-Prussian camp, which in such situation would win the war with 100% certainty.
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Indeed. I proposed this combination but the problem is that the whole threat of a war was a bluff to which Alexander caved. Austria would be too vulnerable to go to such a conflict and I doubt that Louis would find a lot of enthusiasm for a new major war (for the Saxonian interests or Polish, does not matter). But if push came to shove, Nappy has a perfect opening.
 

eltf177

FillyofDelphi said:
Given Europe was explicently declaring a war on him personally as the ultimate threat to European peace (Not France under Napoleon: the man himself) and France is already militarily tapped out after decades of multinational war, I give him statistically insignicant odds. The Allies won't willingly can't be forced to accept his position.
Click to expand...

jb3 said:
I just do not see how to make this challenge happen.

Even a "victory" at Waterloo would be Pyrrhic. The French would sustain major losses they could not recoup in any case and the Allies were not going to surrender after having declared unified war on him personally. In 1815, France no longer had the demographic or military edge it did when Napoleon was quashing the various Coalitions. The Hundred Days was a major exercise in hubris not just from Bonaparte but from the Marshals (many of whom had pledged themselves to Louis XVIII and quickly switched sides) and army vets (who were the real source of his return) since they never had a chance and France became an occupied power, pretty much losing any of the gains they had kept after Napoleon's first abdication in the new peace.

Also, unlike previously Napoleon had no allies from which he could call forth foreign troops, no foreign countries to loot to pay French soldiers or refill the French treasury, and a significant royalist presence in places like Bordeaux and the Vendee where he had to re-send troops he could ill-afford to loose to pacify. In the end France had to call upon teenagers to defend the homeland because there were not enough able-bodied men. He was in no position to tell the Allies to keep him on the throne or else (in reality the Allies thought about not putting Louis back on the throne and replace him with the Duke of Orleans, but there was no longer even a thought about a Napoleon II regency under Marie Louise any more as there had been the first time around).
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All the points I brought up in my own thread NAPOLEON WINS WATERLOO, WHAT NEXT?

France is bankrupt and bled white. The only way for Napoleon to stay in power is politically, not militarily. And NO one is willing to make any sort of deal with the Ogre of Europe. So it's just not going to happen, he is either killed or exiled a second time...
 
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