AHC: Huguenot/ Huguenot dominated France with POV after 1559

Death of Henry II in July 10th 1559 was beginning of the bloody conflict that pitched Huguenots against the Catholics for next 30 or so years. With Henri IV winning the throne, ultimate winner of the war was the Politiques, a moderate Catholics and royalists. Now, the challenge is to make the Huguenots ultimate winner of the war and make Calvinism dominant religion of France at least by 1650s with POV after Henry II’s death. “France” should not lose significant territories in the process. Bonus, if you can pull this off without significant foreign intervention on either side. Bigger Bonus, if you can pull this off with relatively small and bloodless conflict. :p
 
Here's a proposal: kill off all of Henry ii's sons faster than otl (within a year or two of henry's death). Then, the next in line for the throne in Antoine de bourbon, the father of otl henry IV, who as I seem to recall was a stricter protestant that his son.

Now, I do expect this succession to be challenged by the de guise family or other hard-line catholics. However the only plausible catholic heir of Henry ii at this point is his eldest daughter Elizabeth, who is married to the king of Spain. The catholic's invite Felipe in to take the French throne jure uxoris, but as Spain is still france's most hated enemy at the time, the French people rise up in favor of Antoine de bourbon.

A long war ensues between the supporters of Antoine and those of Felipe (antoine would have to live a decade or so longer in this proposal). The result is that catholicism is dicredtied as the religion of the Spanish oppressor, and many who didn't embrace protestantism otl would do so in this scenario.
 
Ack, just realized I confused antoine de bourbon with his brother Louis!

So then you'd have to kill off antoine and his heirs (otl henry iv) to get Louis de bourbon as the next in line....
 
Wars of Religion were as much religious (but you probably figured that much without my help) than political. Bourbons were usually protectors of Protestantism while other families as de Guise weren't at all (It's definitely more complex than that, but we need to simplify).

Some families, as the Montmorency, while not Protestants, sometimes allied themselves against nobles families that embraced Ligue, as Guise.

Valois' policy depended of their interests, not tolerating what was after all a lese-majesty offense at times, temporizing at others because it was convenient, etc. When they warred, they campaigned usually against places more close, taking back Protestants strongholds.

While royal power could be significantly weakened, it would certainly be at the benefit of Catholic princes, allied of Habsburgs, not Protestant ones.
Basically, you'd need to break both royal and catholic nobiliar power, which seems quite contradictory as the constant truel (Valois playing the balance tip) that usually beneficied either of these, rarely Protestants as such.

You'd at least need a much earlier PoD, where France is let in various pieces during worst Wars of Italy, meaning more possibilities for powerful nobles and principalities to exist (as Bourbon, that was absorbed by Francis I) to harbour Protestant protectors, and even that isn't bound to happen due to the proximity of strong Catholic powers, that would be strengthened ITTL.

I'm going to disagree with telnyk : a Protestant king wouldn't be accepted by most of the population, Three Henry's War point as much this. While a Spanish ruler would be as much unacceptable (see how it went during the Siege of Paris), it would mean deadlocked situation until someone decides to compromise as Henri IV did.

If not, any protestant Bourbon would be likely ignored by everyone up to finding a Catholic Bourbon supported by both part of Catholics, Malcontents and/or Politics.

Rather than a Calvinist France, you'd have more chance with a Gallican Church, evolving more or less similarly to what happened in Britain with Anglicanism (while probably more "high church" than in England) that would integrate some humanist/reformations beliefs and maybe not that radically cut from Rome.

But outright Calvinist, when it depended from a relatively marginal (geopolitically speaking) nobility support to blossom? I don't think that's quite likely.
 
Thanks for disagreeing with me! You're much more of an expert than I am....

And good point about the likely outcome being a Gallican church. I was thinking of huguenot=french protestant (and usobg a wide definition of protestant) rather than huguenot= french Calvinist

While I do still think a protestant (broadly speaking) france is possible if the only (apparent) choice is between a protestant bourbon and a Spanish catholic, it would take a long and bloody conflict much more intense than otl's wars of religion for france to convince itself that a Catholic french king was not a possibility. And you'd have to repeatedly kill off every bourbon willing to convert for the throne in the meantime.

So I agree that my scenario is nor very plausible but I will hold out that it is still possible....


Wars of Religion were as much religious (but you probably figured that much without my help) than political. Bourbons were usually protectors of Protestantism while other families as de Guise weren't at all (It's definitely more complex than that, but we need to simplify).

Some families, as the Montmorency, while not Protestants, sometimes allied themselves against nobles families that embraced Ligue, as Guise.

Valois' policy depended of their interests, not tolerating what was after all a lese-majesty offense at times, temporizing at others because it was convenient, etc. When they warred, they campaigned usually against places more close, taking back Protestants strongholds.

While royal power could be significantly weakened, it would certainly be at the benefit of Catholic princes, allied of Habsburgs, not Protestant ones.
Basically, you'd need to break both royal and catholic nobiliar power, which seems quite contradictory as the constant truel (Valois playing the balance tip) that usually beneficied either of these, rarely Protestants as such.

You'd at least need a much earlier PoD, where France is let in various pieces during worst Wars of Italy, meaning more possibilities for powerful nobles and principalities to exist (as Bourbon, that was absorbed by Francis I) to harbour Protestant protectors, and even that isn't bound to happen due to the proximity of strong Catholic powers, that would be strengthened ITTL.

I'm going to disagree with telnyk : a Protestant king wouldn't be accepted by most of the population, Three Henry's War point as much this. While a Spanish ruler would be as much unacceptable (see how it went during the Siege of Paris), it would mean deadlocked situation until someone decides to compromise as Henri IV did.

If not, any protestant Bourbon would be likely ignored by everyone up to finding a Catholic Bourbon supported by both part of Catholics, Malcontents and/or Politics.

Rather than a Calvinist France, you'd have more chance with a Gallican Church, evolving more or less similarly to what happened in Britain with Anglicanism (while probably more "high church" than in England) that would integrate some humanist/reformations beliefs and maybe not that radically cut from Rome.

But outright Calvinist, when it depended from a relatively marginal (geopolitically speaking) nobility support to blossom? I don't think that's quite likely.
 
Thanks for disagreeing with me! You're much more of an expert than I am....
Thanks, but full stop there. I'm not an expert on these things (let's say an enlightened enthusiast at very best), and even if I was, I don't get to "win" threads merely by posting on it.

You have opinions and arguments that I can respect or understand even if I disagree with, as long we can discuss it on actual evidence avaible without any self-appeal to authority (which would be, frankly, ridiculous).

Anyway.

I was thinking of huguenot=french protestant (and usobg a wide definition of protestant) rather than huguenot= french Calvinist
The latter being essentially equivalent, tough. Lutheranism had a limited appeal on France, more as an influential feature within french Catholicism (with gallican overtones and not that distinguished from humanism) than an outright movement of its own.

So I agree that my scenario is nor very plausible but I will hold out that it is still possible....
Well, it is possible, but as you said, would imply such a radicalization that a Protestant king of France would probably be dominating only part of the kingdom, probably against a Catholic claimant (Bourbon, or otherwise related to Capetian main line, and you'd always find one) during a TYW equivalent, which would probably make Hapsburg gaining the upper hand.

That said, you could end, by some eventuality that I won't discuss there to keep it open, having a Catholic king of France reigning over Protestant/Protestantized entities. Such as Provinces de l'Union : roughly, Protestant assembly in Languedoc declared an autonomy of the province, with Henri de Condé as lieutenant, while still abiding by Valois' authority. It was short-lived IOTL, but with a French War of Religion going really worse, maybe it could evolve into something more stable.

If you couple that with a maintain of a Valois dynasty, but a weakened one after ATL Religious War, which could imply a nobility and parlementarian elite calling for regular Estates Generals as the rule and no longer the exception; and an increase of Parlementarian and Provincial Estates power...

Rather than a Protestant dominated France, you'd have Protestant-dominated (politically, rather than numerically) provinces and assemblies within the kingdom. How long could it last is anyone's guess (my own is, not that long) but it could lead to an interesting ATL development of modern and late modern French royal state.

Thinking about it, it could be a stepstone for a Gallican, half-Royal/half-Catholic/half-Protestant (yes, you read that right) mindset; or just a respise before Royal power in France recovers and pulls a "cujus regio, ejus religio ".
 
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