AHC: How Powerful of a Nation can be the Republic of Ireland be?.

AHC: How Powerful of a Nation can be the Republic of Ireland be?.

Say if Ireland was a United Republic from Independence.

Or the British Give Ireland the same sort of Home Rule status New Zealand had in 1900?.
 

Decius00009

Banned
Barring a massive culture change, not very. Ireland has no real resources other than gas, and not even a hell of a lot of that. She had (actually still has) a high birth rate, but there was massive emigration throughout the 20th century until the Tiger boom of the 90s, which was largely the result of European structural funding and deregulation of banking. The economy through the 20th century was insular and heavily agricultural, coming too late to industrialisation to have any meaningful manufacturing. She actually went from heavily agricultural to post industrial in about 10 years from the late 80s. When people had money to invest, they tended to invest in land (or pubs) rather than speculative business ventures - Irish people are risk averse in general and begrudging of the success of others, or were until recently. You also have the problem of Church dominance of education, which delivered first class literacy and numeracy but little in the way of vocational education. By the way, I'm nor being nasty about the Irish, being Irish myself
 
Ireland is actually probably at her geopolitical zenith at the moment! At independence, around 80% of Irish imports came from Britain and 90% of exports went to Britain. Over a century, this dependence has reduced to 30% of imports and 60% of exports. A united 32 county Ireland would give her more (not hugely profitable, agriculture isn't making a lot of money) territory (see below) but, at the same time, severely reduce her foreign policy influence on what is still her principal trading partner as she would no longer have a land border with same nor would Britain have any continued interest in co-operation to make Northern Ireland governable. Her soft influence in America is still large but beginning to decline as descendants of earlier generations of immigrants are now marrying outside their ethnicity and less avid churchgoers than hitherto. Fewer Irish Americans and more plain Americans as time goes by. Happening with the other groups like Italian Americans and Polish Americans too.

Now things could have been a bit different 1900-1950 had it been possible to persuade Ulster into Home Rule (four province federal Home Rule perhaps?) and the Ulster Scots more inclined to vocational and non denominational education. But post 1950, Ulster would have been an economic drain on the rest of the country as the textile mills closed and the shipyards (I imagine more effort to keep Workman & Clark going as well if it was one of the Dominion of Ireland's only two shipyards than when it was 2% of the total UK capacity) making sustained losses. Currently about 20% of the Northern Ireland (Six Counties) GDP is derived from subsidies from the rest of the UK.
During the two World Wars and the Cold War, Britain would have had a strong motive to keep Ireland onside. But post 1982, airborne early warning would have rendered radar bases and listening posts obsolete and, post 1989, the lack of a Warsaw Pact would drive the closure of any army and air force bases (as happened with Bishopscourt, Shackleton, Gilnahirk and Aldergrove OTL -they did NATO stuff rather than Troubles related). And I'm not being nasty about the Irish either, despite being the other sort of Irish;)!
 
If there was a communist revolution in Great Britain in the early 20th century, but the revolution was crushed in Ireland, wouldn't Ireland end up more powerful than OTL because of the integration of British refugees and their capital?
 
If there was a communist revolution in Great Britain in the early 20th century, but the revolution was crushed in Ireland, wouldn't Ireland end up more powerful than OTL because of the integration of British refugees and their capital?
While I enjoy Rast's TL, no, definitely not more powerful. More prosperous possibly in that a lot of refugees would be engineers and industrialists, but what capital? The communists have confiscated all the land and nationalised all the banks. Lots of intellectual capital but who in Ireland is going to put money into it? Lord Nuffield might be a good bet but Murphy of the three pubs isn't going to have the capital to start him up again. And where is the market? Ireland only one seventh the population. And jewels and Old Masters would be going at fire sale prices like those sold by Russian refugees 1917-20 OTL.
Plus Ireland is a bit close to its four times its size and seven times its population neighbour. You will note that OTL the White Russians didn't congregate in the Baltic States for much the same reasons. And 90% of Ireland's export trade is to Britain so they probably wouldn't want the provocative presence of British emigres in case of either a trade blockade or an outright invasion (sorry, gesture of fraternal solidarity to the Irish proletariat). British refugees more likely to head for the USA or Canada, Australia or New Zealand
And remember, 90% of export trade in the early 1920s is to Britain. If the British Communist regime either goes for autarky to ensure full employment or buggers up its economy badly Ireland is in dire trouble. Germany and France have farm sectors of their own to protect, Spain and Portugal are poor. Russia doesn't (usually) want the peasants revolting. And if America introduces prohibition as OTL the Irish whiskey exports are also done for.
By not indulging in the idiocies of Communism, Ireland would have more personal liberty and a slightly more efficient economy than its larger neighbour. Possibly individual prosperity per head would be slightly greater but they would be constantly struggling to stay afloat and to do nothing to antagonise the Comrade Secretary General
 

Decius00009

Banned
I think you need to go back further to make ireland a stronger nation. development in 1700s and 1800s.
The absolute latest you could wank Ireland would be 1796, when Lazare Hoche's fleet foundered off Bantry. Had he managed to land his 15,000 veterans, linking with a coordinated rebellion, they would have had a chance to free themselves from the British. Hordes of butterflies, though, because Hoche knocking Britain out of the war (which the loss of Ireland certainly would) relegates Bonaparte to a footnote. Things would also have to go precisely right for the Irish afterwards, with a disloyal Protestant minority in the North (though the United Irishmen were non sectarian, their successors might not be), probable loss of access to the British market and no native iron or coal for industrial expansion
 
I was more thinking in terms of a course of action that enables Ireland to industrialise & modernise, or crucially southern ireland. Northern Ireland developed heavy industry, even though it didn't have the iron and coal like the south. Perhaps a political leaderin ireland with power & influence who wants to make sure southern ireland does modernise ( Japan doesn't have much coal or iron, but it managed to do develop)

Two useful articles about the industrialisation of Ireland

http://www.academia.edu/15008091/Did_Ireland_under-industrialize

http://www.irishtimes.com/culture/h...-the-past-you-might-not-know-we-had-1.2324451
 
De Valera did try to modernise but the problems of lack of indigenous resources and technically capable people restricted this. Ulster had higher levels of secular/non-denominational education and strong craft and engineering traditions from the Scots and Huguenot influxes. And lots of rivers to build mills beside. Now Munster and Leinster had those too but, by the time the South was ready to industrialise on a big scale (there were a few linen and woollen mills in Southern Ireland as well), textiles were a mature industry on the verge of decline. Possibly someone in the old Irish Parliament in the 1770s/1780s?. I think a surviving Thomas Drummond in the 1830s/1840s would be probably the latest you could hope for.
 
Yeah there's no way in hell the British would allow that, as they explicitly ruled out even External Association during the Anglo-Irish Treaty negotiations.

Perhaps the OP meant a United Free State?
In terms of possible options, if a peaceful Home Rule was achieved (with intentions of moving towards a Dominion eventually) and a better relationship with the UK, then there might be options. In terms of economy, no Civil War avoids the infrastructural damage of OTL, not getting into a Trade War with the main trading partner would be beneficial as well. There was a mention of the Irish Whiskey industries issue with Prohibition, at the time the Irish industry dwarfed the Scottish one but they used the Empire to deal with the disruption, while the Irish didn't, if that was used for the Irish as well then you would have rural knock on's.

Presuming that Global events play out like before (ie WW2) then there's the potential for the UK to invest in factories in Ireland as well, and with war you have the chances of much more investments (Airbases, upgrade to Port infrastructure, Roads etc) things that the Republic had to pay for (or wait for the EU funding) a lot earlier than OTL with knock on's there (and the US forces that would end up in Ireland and the money/investments that would bring), of course the down side is the losses that would happen if Ireland was involved in the War. At the same time it might mean more Marshall funding to Ireland post War and the impact that might bring.
 

Wallet

Banned
If Ireland is a united and peaceful republic that stays neautral in both world wars, it could become a center of finance like Switzerland.

Realistically Ireland doesn't have the size, population, nor resources to become a global power. But neither does Switzerland or Luxembourg. Establish a banking culture.

Have the British send lots of capital to Dublin for safe keeping during the wars. A Irish wank would have the UN, NATO, European Union, IMF, Interpool, or World Bank have their HQ here.

Any of this would greatly increase Ireland's global influence
 
If Ireland is a united and peaceful republic that stays neautral in both world wars, it could become a center of finance like Switzerland.

Realistically Ireland doesn't have the size, population, nor resources to become a global power. But neither does Switzerland or Luxembourg. Establish a banking culture.

Have the British send lots of capital to Dublin for safe keeping during the wars. A Irish wank would have the UN, NATO, European Union, IMF, Interpool, or World Bank have their HQ here.

Any of this would greatly increase Ireland's global influence

Well if the current thoughts on the Gold finds turns out to be true and were found earlier (I have no idea how deep they are) then you could have more financial strength.
 
Interesting idea

From last year:
Irish gold mining firm Conroy Gold and Natural Resources has found four new gold zones on its Glenish target in Monaghan.

The discovery was made in a 150 metre-wide structural corridor in the western part of the Glenish gold target.

It included intersections of 2.25 metres grading 2.65 g/t gold, at a depth of 18 metres, 2 metres grading 1.59 g/t gold at a depth of 27.75 metres; 2.75 metres grading 1.43 g/t gold at a depth of 36 metres and 3 metres grading 1.76 g/t gold at a depth of 64.25 metres.

The Glenish gold target spans 147 hectares.
 

Decius00009

Banned
I have thought about this for a very, very long time, and I believe the worst thing that ever happened to Ireland was Agricola being recalled by Claudius. He was of the opinion that a single Legion and some auxileries would be enough to conquer, though Gibbon has a wonderful quote about Irish writers being jealous of their national honour disputing this. Had the Romans conquered Ireland, they would have founded cities, which mean commerce and trade, money, industry etc.Far enough off the beaten path of invasions by the Anglo Saxons, Ireland could have developed as a centralised State in the Early to High Middle Ages
 
If Ireland is a united and peaceful republic that stays neautral in both world wars, it could become a center of finance like Switzerland.

Realistically Ireland doesn't have the size, population, nor resources to become a global power. But neither does Switzerland or Luxembourg. Establish a banking culture.

Switzerland also has mountains that help protect its neutrality in war (Ireland is surrounded by water, but that is no barrier to the Royal Navy). It also had a banking culture since the 1700s and the legal laws and culture that prized banking secrecy until recently. It would be hard for Ireland to establish itself as a rival banking sector without those several centuries of banking heritage and trust that the Swiss enjoyed.

Given that so many Irish revolutionaries were attracted to socialism, this is a non-starter.
 
A good POD might be if Michael Collins had lived and been able to lead Ireland for the next few decades as opposed to Eamon De Valera. His chapter on "Building Up Ireland" in his book The Path to Freedom shows a very pragmatic approach to develop the Irish economy while avoided laissez faire capitalism and state socialism. He doesn't have pie in the sky plans. He wants to develop existing Irish industry by bringing in technical experts, invest in infrastructure, and utilize Irish energy sources like peat coal and hydropower. He wants Ireland to attract foreign capital and serve as a trade entrepot between North American and Europe.

If Collins lives and leads that path, he'll help Ireland avoid the long period of stagnation it had under De Valera. There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be at the same level of development as Denmark and the Netherlands.
 

Decius00009

Banned
I don't know why people always assume that things would have been that different had Collins lived. DeValera ran rings around him politically. While it's possible he could have made a difference, I actually think it more likely that, after 1932, Dev still comes to power and Collins is nothing more than a better looking opposition leader
 
Top