AHC: How can the Shah act differently in 1973-1979 to ensure maximum continuity in Iran ?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
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What could the Shah have done to ensure maximum continuity with his policies of the 60s and early 70s and to minimize the chances of revolutionary upheaval in Iran?

Constraints:

1) PoD must be *after* October 1973 Arab-Israeli War
2) You can't change the Shah's health and death date, so he needs some systems/institutions intact that can survive his death.
 
What could the Shah have done to ensure maximum continuity with his policies of the 60s and early 70s and to minimize the chances of revolutionary upheaval in Iran?

I think he should have convinced the US that, after communism, the most important threat to their power is Islamism. That would have maybe made the US support him in the 1979 revolution against the revolutionaries. The same goes with the USSR: he could have approached the USSR and gave them some concessions (for example a naval base on the Indian Ocean), and in turn, the Persian communists could have started to support the Shah by order of Moscow - include the Communists in the single party regime. Then, a joint invasion of Afghanistan by both the Soviets and Persia is possible.

Also, try to improve the living standard of the middle class. The wealth from oil export mostly benefited the Iranian elite and thus strengthened the communist and islamist opposition. Maybe after the White Revolutions of the 60's (women's suffrage, land reform) try to implement a comprehensive social system funded with oil money.

Also, don't force the merchants of the bazaars to enter the single party. Also, From the spring 1978, he stopped to appear in public due to his cancer, which lead to an image of weakness and a power vacuum - avoid this by giving more public responsibility to his son (or his wife, if his son is too young) once he realizes that he's going to die soon.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
These are all some interesting alternatives, though they are also high stakes gambles. Switching to Soviet protection and invading Afghanistan are huge geopolitical moves. Leaving his wife as successor also leads Islamists into a tizzy all by itself. The other domestic reforms are probably less risky.
 

Ak-84

Banned
Islamists have no problem with having a female Head of State. Their opposition is to the monarchy itself, man or woman.
 
Assassinate Ayatollah Khomeini when he loses his refuge in Iraq in 1978 and is in Paris.
Sometime it's better to have a dead martyr than a living revolutionary
 
What could the Shah have done to ensure maximum continuity with his policies of the 60s and early 70s and to minimize the chances of revolutionary upheaval in Iran?

Constraints:

1) PoD must be *after* October 1973 Arab-Israeli War
2) You can't change the Shah's health and death date, so he needs some systems/institutions intact that can survive his death.
These pics show what life could be like today if the Shah had carried on, http://imgur.com/gallery/0a69e
 
My understanding is that what caused the Revolution in Iran was a combination of factors that included (but were not limited to):

Massive levels of personal corruption in which individuals at the top amassed unbelievable fortunes while at the same time imposing massive austerity on the middle-classes.
Enforcement of political corruption (such as making it compulsory to join one particular party and pay party dues that, unsurprisingly, filter upwards and not downwards).
Trampling over religious sensibilities.
Pissing off the agricultural workers of poor by removing safety nets.
Allowing inflation and unemployment to run at astonishing levels.

He could probably have got away with this had he ruled with a fist of iron, but he also tried to be acceptable to the West, and then got confused and clamped down, and then relaxed again.

Basically, if his intention was to start a revolution, he couldn't have improved on what he did.
 
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