AHC: How Bad Could the 70s Oil Shock(s) Get?

Short of nuclear war or other global catastrophe, how bad could the oil shocks of the 70s get, with a PoD of 1945 or later? Specifically, measured in terms of how high oil prices stay for how long.

(Changing when and how the oil shocks start is allowed.)
 
It depends on several factors:

  • Whether OPEC emerges in a post-colonial era to maintain price discipline
  • How many people are consuming at a First-world energy consumption pattern.
  • What caused the oil bust in the 1980's was Iraq and Iran needed to sell every barrel they could pump to feed their war. If they weren't at each other throats from 1980-1988, prices wouldn't have dropped as much.
  • However, if prices stayed high through 1980- Western fuel-economy/power consumption measures would have forced a price drop UNLESS Brazil, India or China develop a lot faster and farther for their oil demand to make up for US/Europe/Japan.
 
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