AHC: Hohenstaufen dynasty rules italy but looses control over Germany
- Thread starter LeCHVCK
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The Welfs controlled both Bavaria and Saxony, with the right motivation and opportunity they have the means to kick the hohenstaufens out of Germany
"Whole Italian peninsula" is the difficult part here. Having a descendant of Frederick II maintain Sicily while losing Germany seems eminently plausible, but a unification of Italy via Sicily (or via anything, really) is not easy to manage in that period.
You could achieve this briefly in the context of some sort of "Hohenstaufen total victory" scenario, in which Frederick II wins the war against the Lombards and crushes the Pope under his heel only for Germany to rebel and elect some non-dynastic challenger after his death, but the nature of Papal policy of this era was to bitterly oppose any one power that threatened to dominate Italy, so in short order you would have an alliance of Germany, the Pope, and probably some of the Lombard cities as well trying to force the Hohenstaufen from Lombardy. A Hohenstaufen king that is weak enough to lose Germany to a rebellion is probably not strong enough to keep Lombardy from such a league arrayed against him.
Edit: This assumes a Frederick II scenario; a Frederick I scenario is also possible, but you're starting out without Sicily, so you'd not only have to have a "Hohenstaufen total victory" against the Lombards and the Pope but a successful invasion of Sicily as well (and at a time when the Byzantines were still relevant and would be backing the Lombards and Sicilians). Perhaps not strictly impossible, but very difficult.
You could achieve this briefly in the context of some sort of "Hohenstaufen total victory" scenario, in which Frederick II wins the war against the Lombards and crushes the Pope under his heel only for Germany to rebel and elect some non-dynastic challenger after his death, but the nature of Papal policy of this era was to bitterly oppose any one power that threatened to dominate Italy, so in short order you would have an alliance of Germany, the Pope, and probably some of the Lombard cities as well trying to force the Hohenstaufen from Lombardy. A Hohenstaufen king that is weak enough to lose Germany to a rebellion is probably not strong enough to keep Lombardy from such a league arrayed against him.
Edit: This assumes a Frederick II scenario; a Frederick I scenario is also possible, but you're starting out without Sicily, so you'd not only have to have a "Hohenstaufen total victory" against the Lombards and the Pope but a successful invasion of Sicily as well (and at a time when the Byzantines were still relevant and would be backing the Lombards and Sicilians). Perhaps not strictly impossible, but very difficult.
I think the easiest way to do this would be to have Henry VI avoid his assassination, thus allowing the Hohenstaufen to divide between Germany and Sicily. Eventually when the northern dynasty dies out (and assuming that this division of resources allows them to crush the Pope and the Italian city states) the Sicilian branch manages to press their claim to Italy (and stop the new German king from crossing the Alps) but fail to keep Germany itself. Say that this branch has land in the North (Spoleto, Milan, Provence) inherited/exercised as imperial vicars or medieval Habsburgs or the like.
This isn't especially easy bit it's not impossible IMHO, if one give the Hohenstaufens a century or so to consolidate royal power. This also has the benefit of seeing the communes decline and be replaced by the strongmen.
This isn't especially easy bit it's not impossible IMHO, if one give the Hohenstaufens a century or so to consolidate royal power. This also has the benefit of seeing the communes decline and be replaced by the strongmen.
Suppose Manfred of Sicily decisively wins Battle of Benevento in 1266.
Would that make him a ruler of Germany?
Would that make him a ruler of Germany?
A slightly more successful Conradin who fails to retain Germany could see a Hohenstaufen (Altastaufer, Ghibelino, or Svevi?) Sicilian Empire versus Imperial German Kings both claiming Italy and the Imperial title.
I would point out that Norman Sicily, if it can be free of italian/German entanglements, is exceedingly likely to get involved in Greece, hell I could even see Frederick II claiming the Latin Empire by right of conquest and given his attitude towards native muslims I think he could win enough support to make it stick while he's alive. Add to that Tunisia (he is after all grandson of Roger II the man who conquered Africa), and whatever he can gain from the Crusades, Reconquista, marriage deals (say inheriting Provence in place of the Anjou) thats quite a mediterranean empire.
The Pope is the biggest obstacle here- they were pretty consistently hostile to the Hohenstqufwn and especially would desire to keep the emperor out of Italy.
Long term I think for this to last the Hohenstaufen need yo annex the former Exarchate of Ravenna territories, nipping the Papal states in the bud, and then supporting allied clients in Lombardy.
Long term I think for this to last the Hohenstaufen need yo annex the former Exarchate of Ravenna territories, nipping the Papal states in the bud, and then supporting allied clients in Lombardy.
What were the ongoing entanglements of Manfred in Greece?
Nothing beyond that the Fourth Crusade happens to coincide with the rule of a certain fellow named Frederick II, who unlike OTL won't have to really bother with northern Italy (let alone Germany) and can rely on his uncle's support regardless if the Pope makes a fuss.
Philip was all in all a fairly competent ruler who had the misfortune to get shanked by an utter jackass (this because he broke his daughter's betrothal with said jackass after hearing that he was, well, an utter jackass.
The Hohenstaufens have this annoying tendency of dying right on the peak of their power. Frederick I drowned on the Crusade, Henry VI died of malaria right after securing Sicily, and Philip of course was assassinated at his cousin's wedding even as the war with Otto was winding down.
Turns out Manfred was allied to Despotate of Epirus through marriage to Helena Doukaina.
So if Manfred wins at Benevento in 1266, what are the butterflies in Greece?
So if Manfred wins at Benevento in 1266, what are the butterflies in Greece?
This was already discussed in another thread some months ago, IIRC.
The bride chosen by Manfred makes sense only if he had already in mind a scenario where he would not context central and northern Italy as the Hohenstaufen champion,but rather would reach an agreement with the pope (which would have been quite possible between say 1258 and 1263) and consolidate his hold on the kingdom of Sicily before looking for glory and lands in Greece. Under such hypothesis, there would be no Anjou invasion (the king of France was not even in favour of it), and obviously no Benevento.
The problem is that Manfred had quite a large window of time to choose between a Greek scenario and an Italian scenario (which would have required to promote contacts with the Ghibelline partisans in central and northern Italy, and above all to use the imperial faction in Rome to ensure a political control of the city and the nomination to Senator), but he appears to have been completely unfocused: all the time was frittered away in squashing minor insurrection in Puglia and hunting a lot.
Manfred is a bit later than I was thinking- my thought was that Frederick II of Sicily, deprived of the Holy Roman Empire by his uncle's survival, would console himself by invading and conquering the Latin Empire in the 1220s.
I would not expect Manfred to intervene in Greece without being secure in Italy; I am not especially knowledgeable of his reign but the Papacy's policy from the reign of Frederick Barbarossa was consistently hostile to the Hohenstaufen ambitions.
Hence my suggestion of PoD being Philip not getting assassinated- it ensures that the Imperial title is held by a different line, who will naturally be cooperative with the Sicilian branch, and if the two cooperate IMHO they can succeed in asserting royal power in both the German and Italian theaters.
I would not expect Manfred to intervene in Greece without being secure in Italy; I am not especially knowledgeable of his reign but the Papacy's policy from the reign of Frederick Barbarossa was consistently hostile to the Hohenstaufen ambitions.
Hence my suggestion of PoD being Philip not getting assassinated- it ensures that the Imperial title is held by a different line, who will naturally be cooperative with the Sicilian branch, and if the two cooperate IMHO they can succeed in asserting royal power in both the German and Italian theaters.
So take a PoD where there IS the Anjou invasion, and Benevento, but Manfred wins.
What happens next in Italy? How is papacy and Guelfs in Northern Italy affected in 1266 if Charles is killed and Manfred victorious?
Taking your POD, Manfred is still ruling the kingdom of Sicily (although he has not been anointed by the Pope). Depending on how Benevento battle develops, he may or may not have suffered high losses (high losses would still weaken his position and possibly result in additional plots and/or outright rebellions of the barons). Even in the best possible outcome, Benevento would not be a decisive victory: he'll be forced to remain near the border with the Patrimonium Petri, his influence in Rome has already been frittered away (he never managed to become Senator as I already said) and it is quite likely the Anjou will be back for a second round, this time with some real support from the king of France. Ten years before Benevento he might have been able to unite the Hohenstaufen partisans in northern Italy as the heir of Frederick II, but by 1266 any good will has certainly evaporated.
I would assume that the situation in northern Italy will not be different, and possibly the pope will try to set up a Mark II Lombard League which might make very difficult for Conrad the Younger to ride toward Rome.
Manfred was a big disappointment to me: a good subordinate under a real ruler but not focused enough to become a ruler himself and lacking in strategic vision.
Charles won´t be back as per PoD, which is that he´s dead at Benevento battlefield.
Does Pope (Clement IV) have another claimant ready up his sleeve? If yes, who?
What did Guelfs do OTL in 1268?
And how would the 1266 campaign go after Benevento? Charles is dead as per PoD, but Clement lives, and Guelfs of Northern Italy are still around.
The obvious claimant would be Charles II, who is still underage. If Louis of France listens to the pope, there may be another expedition in a couple of years time (Charles would be 14, and according to French succession laws should be of age).
The second expedition would coincide with Conrad the Younger expedition in Italy, which would increase the fun level (in particular if Manfred does not submits to the true heir).
Other than that I don't expect that the situation in northern Italy would substantially differ, although the separation between Guelfs and Ghibellines was always a bit blurred
But Charles I does not have any legitimate claim. He´s pulled out of Pope´s ass - Popes had proposed Richard of Cromwall and Edmund of Lancaster before and after Charles I.
With Charles of Anjou dead at Benevento, the 11 year old Charles the Lame is heir to failed attempt to usurpation alone. While 13 year old Conradin in Germany has much more Staufen legitimacy. And Manfred is the adult winner at the field.
OTL, there was no outside Ghibelline army in Northern Italy from early 1266 (Manfred crushed) till mid-1267 (Conradin crosses Alps). TTL, Manfred, having crushed Charles, may go on offence into Central and Northern Italy in 1266-1267. But what could he accomplish?
Why should Charles lack a legitimate claim to the kingdom of Sicily?
The pope was the overlord of the KoS, and as such was within his rights to appoint a new king, since the old one had died.
It is irrelevant that other candidates were approached before (and anyway it mostly happened because Louis IX was against this adventure): Charles I arrived in Rome on 20 May 1265, was nominated Senator on 21 June, proclaimed king a week later. On 5 January 1266 he was crowned king of Sicily. He was the rightful king according to ecclesiastic and feudal law.
His minor son Charles the Lame is the rightful heir. Conrad the younger's claim is much weaker since his father was never crowned KoS by the pope, and was excommunicated. Manfred is a bastard, and has no claim at all on the crown (he might have been crowned king, had he accepted the papal proposal, but that's another story).
Manfred - had he been a different and better man - would have moved to control Rome and support the Ghibelline cities in Tuscany before 1260: it would have been well within his grasp, and would have put him in an unassailable position. By the time of Benevento, he's no winning options, even if Charles is defeated