How could we invent a realistic situation in which a nation-state (or even just a centralized enough East Asian kingdom) dominated ethnically and politically by the Hmong-Miao people manages to emerge? IIRC, the Hmong population, unlike a number of other ethnicities in Southeast Asia and Southern China, never truly coalesced around a single territory that they could more or less call "theirs", in the vein of post-Westphalian ideology. So far, by looking at a few maps, the only region in which they really constitute a majority is the northern part of the Laos-Vietnam border. So, where, when, and how could a Hmong state be created?
Perhaps if the French authorities in Indochina opt for creating an autonomous entity for them before they leave? Or if pro-US forces manage to defeat the Pathet Lao in the Laotian Civil War, diminishing the possibility of there being an equivalent to the ethnic cleansing suffered IOTL by the Hmong at the latter's hands, paving the way for an autonomous republic under Laotian tutelage?
 
Or if pro-US forces manage to defeat the Pathet Lao in the Laotian Civil War, diminishing the possibility of there being an equivalent to the ethnic cleansing suffered IOTL by the Hmong at the latter's hands, paving the way for an autonomous republic under Laotian tutelage?
General Vang Pao had a monopoly on the Hmong's military, food supply, and access to wider markets. A parastate within Laos emerging under his leadership seems to be the likely outcome of beating the Pathet Lao.
 
I sensed it would be in OTL Chinese provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi (and easternmost Guangdong aka Chaoshan-Hakka region); Hubei would also be part of this hypothetical Hmong nation-state would be possible as well.

The earliest potential PoD would be the successful northward expansion of the Chu (楚國), vassalizing other states and establishing a new Chinese royal dynasty.
 
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I sensed it would be in OTL Chinese provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi (and easternmost Guangdong aka Chaoshan-Hakka region); Hubei would also be part of this hypothetical Hmong nation-state would be possible as well.

The earliest potential PoD would be the successful northward expansion of the Chu.
What would prevent Chu China from wanting to expand south, though? I'm afraid a better PoD for preserving Southern China's Hmong population would be having Central/Han China remain divided for longer periods of time (with an early PoD, such as Qin failing to unify the Warring States, being the most preferable).

Returning to post-1800:
One question i'm curious about is, what sort of writing script would the Hmong have to adopt once they see themselves having to form a nation-state of their own? IIRC, OTL's Hmongic languages don't have a "native" script, mostly using ones invented by foreign influences, such as missionaries. Could they, like Vietnam, end up selecting a Latin script?
 
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