AHC: Hitler begins WWII with a surprise attack on the west

raharris1973

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Challenge - have Hitler begin WWII with a surprise attack on the west, without any of the western countries having DoW'ed Germany. At a minimum this means attacking the Low Countries and France.

Germany could have had a war or two with an eastern neighbor beforehand, or not, but this had not led to a French or British DoW on Germany, so any eastern war was completely separate.
 
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Challenge - have Hitler begin WWII with a surprise attack on the west, with any of the western countries having DoW'ed Germany. At a minimum this means attacking the Low Countries and France.

Germany could have had a war or two with an eastern neighbor beforehand, or not, but this had not led to a French or British DoW on Germany, so any eastern war was completely separate.

this reads as though "any western countries" have declared war on Germany prior to "surprise attack" was that your intention?
 
Hitler invades Poland like in OTL but France and UK doesn't declare war so it would be just German-Polish War. Then Germany would invade Low Countries and France without touching to Denmark and Norway.
 
I think it would have to be a harder line response to the invasion of Bohemia, that wasn't war. But one that makes Germany turn its sights west before heading back east, and one where Germany is reasonable confident there won't be a Polish or Soviet Union through Poland attack. Or one they are confident of fending off.

Hiding Germany is preparing for War in the west is a bit hard, so both sides are going to be mobilised. Germany performance in the west was already quite high OTL, so not sure where any improvements would come. Britain might only have a token BEF in France, so even that getting pocketed won't do much else, and the Wallies have a year less of war preparation. Germany not changing its invasion plans, not having the Polish experience and doing it in 1939 meanwhile could make it costlier or take longer.

The Soviet Union might kick up its expansion a year earlier, taking the Baltic states and attempting to browbeat Finland. Poland would know they are next, but the speed of France falling might shock them into complying with German demands to stave off demands. Poland is generally in a terrible situation, as the USSR has claims on their eastern territories and Germany isn't at all friendly. So ceding Danzig and corridor rights, along with economic subjugation to avoid a full on invasion. Perhaps this is enough for Hitler to focus against the Soviets, thought it won't be as much of a surprise thought it could start much further east. But against the prepared Soviet lines, instead of half built ones.
 

raharris1973

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Could an order to attack west, without the west having declared war on Germany and started a blockade, lead to a coup by Wehrmacht leadership thinking, "WTF, why are we going to war in France and Flanders again?" Even if not a coup, could it lead to pushback and insistence on more time to prepare for the fight?
 
this is a very difficult scenario, absent the Allies simply abandoning their guarantees to Poland.

possibly Germany could annex Austria earlier, gaining the oil and industry, make an ally of Hungary and puppet regimes in Slovakia and Lithuania?

maybe they would feel secure enough vs. Poland to strike West? under the theory?? that the French are preparing (or threatening) to reoccupy some of the German industrial region(s) or they would when Germany invades Poland?
 

raharris1973

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possibly Germany could annex Austria earlier, gaining the oil and industry, make an ally of Hungary and puppet regimes in Slovakia and Lithuania?

This should be quite manageable for Germany. And you're suggesting it may then lead to ....

maybe they would feel secure enough vs. Poland to strike West? under the theory?? that the French are preparing (or threatening) to reoccupy some of the German industrial region(s) or they would when Germany invades Poland?

Those could be part of a German theory to rationalize a "strike west first" move". Another piece of it could be if the time for Franco-German tensions rises in a period when France and the Soviet Union are considered friendly to each other, but the Polish-German nonaggression Pact is still in effect. Berlin rationalizes Poland is an obstacle to Soviet forces marching by land to the aid of France.

this is a very difficult scenario, absent the Allies simply abandoning their guarantees to Poland.

This would be a minimum condition, because if the WAllies have declared war on Germany it is against the premise of the OP. So one of the three following conditions must obtain: a) Hitler has not threatened or attacked Poland, b) regardless of Hitler's threats or actions, the WAllies never guaranteed Poland, or c) if Hitler attacked Poland despite a western guarantee, the Allies abandoned those guarantees.
 
The problem is, in order to attack "west" the Germans have to move forces, lots of them, to their jump off positions. In the peacetime before OTL's attack on Poland, moving those forces across the Rhine simply can't be done "secretly". The Japanese had the Pacific Ocean to hide in, and avoided known shipping lanes. They probably could not have gotten much closer to Hawaii without being spotted. Yes the Germans could move their forces in to jump off positions over time, but while it avoids the "one big movement" alarm bell, folks will ask "why have the Germans been moving all these forces close to our borders the last few weeks/months?" The Ardennes attack in 1944 came as a surprise because, under wartime conditions, the Germans could make sure nobody who might report things saw anything, they moved only at night, and were lucky with weather. Unless Germany expels or severely restricts all foreign nationals they can't hide these sorts of movements, and if they do that unless the "west" is composed of complete dolts they will wonder what is up.
 

raharris1973

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The problem is, in order to attack "west" the Germans have to move forces, lots of them, to their jump off positions. In the peacetime before OTL's attack on Poland, moving those forces across the Rhine simply can't be done "secretly". The Japanese had the Pacific Ocean to hide in, and avoided known shipping lanes. They probably could not have gotten much closer to Hawaii without being spotted. Yes the Germans could move their forces in to jump off positions over time, but while it avoids the "one big movement" alarm bell, folks will ask "why have the Germans been moving all these forces close to our borders the last few weeks/months?" The Ardennes attack in 1944 came as a surprise because, under wartime conditions, the Germans could make sure nobody who might report things saw anything, they moved only at night, and were lucky with weather. Unless Germany expels or severely restricts all foreign nationals they can't hide these sorts of movements, and if they do that unless the "west" is composed of complete dolts they will wonder what is up.

Yes, I guess that is a good reason why they could not achieve genuine strategic surprise.

Could they attack the west first, and fail to achieve strategic surprise, but still get to start shooting/bombing before France DoWs?
 
think to be at all realistic the German army would need a preparatory conflict, that occupying the rest of Czechoslovakia would not have been enough? there would have been a coup/mutiny as previously suggested?

my suggestion for a German puppet regime in Lithuania (and Slovakia), there might be some border war(s) drummed up against Poland? including a German-Soviet pact? leave a rump Polish state instead of the historical General Government?

still think it is doubtful no DoW by Allies, and some of the particulars are doubtful, but not ASB.
 
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