I've been planning a detailed scenario for this And here it is:
Obama doesn't give "A More Perfect Union" speech. Instead he tries to evade the Wright issue and shakes it off, but it lingers on and he loses his mojo. Heading into Pennsylvania, Obama has been having a very bad time. He had a bad debate in which he kept getting skewered, media coverage gives him much more scrutiny, fears he is unelectable are rising, he makes his 'bitter gaffe', and questions about Wright keep lingering. All the while, Hillary the underdog has her mojo back. Perhaps if need be the whole Bosnia lie can be avoided also.
Pledged delegate count before Pennsylvania
Obama: 1,533.5
Clinton:1,427.5
Pennsylvania
Clinton-59% 95 delegates
Obama-41% 63 delegates
Pledged delegates after Pennsylvania
Obama: 1,596.5
Clinton: 1,522.5
It is a shocking landslide, the sheer magnitude of which debilitates Obama's campaign. The flow of superdelegates to Obama stalls to almost nothing. Polls start showing that more Democrats want Hillary as their nominee, albiet by narrow margins, or Democrats are still undecided. The media pumps up the upcoming North Carolina and Indiana contests. If Obama wins one or both, then he is still in fine position. If not, it would be a sign he is damaged goods.
Guam caucuses
Clinton-52% 2 delegates
Obama-48% 2 delegates
Obama tries to pivot to North Carolina, saying Indiana is 'made for Hillary' and North Carolina is a better signal. However, Hillary knows North Carolina is a state with a lot of black voters, so she tries to add weight to Indiana. They needn't have bothered.
Indiana
Clinton-58% 43 delegates
Obama-42% 29 delegates
North Carolina
Clinton-50% 58 delegates
Obama-48% 57 delegates
Pledged delegate count
Obama: 1,704.5
Clinton: 1,642.5
Tim Russert says that night "This race is up in the air. Either Senator Obama or Senator Clinton could be the Democratic nominee." Superdelegates begin fleeing Obama and going to Clinton, who regains a lead in superdelegates. Polls show Clinton doing better in a general election.
Obama is in a bad position. He can't regain momentum with primary wins, because except for Oregon every state on the map is a state made for Clinton. He appeals to the superdelegates against making Clinton the nominee, pointing to his pledged delegate lead and saying "We can't let this victory be stolen." The last lot of voters say, in a bitter mockery "Yes we can."
Kentucky
Clinton-68% 38 delegates
Obama-31% 13 delegates
Oregon
Obama-55% 30 delegates
Clinton-45% 22 delegates
West Virginia
Clinton- 70% 21 delegates
Obama-23% 7 delegates
Puerto Rico
Clinton-70% 39 delegates
Obama-30% 16 delegates
Montana
Clinton-51% 9 delegates
Obama-46% 7 delegates
South Dakota
Clinton-60% 9 delegates
Obama-40% 6 delegates
The two bright spots for Obama in those terrible weeks is his Oregon victory and the close call in Montana, which Obama uses to say he still appeals to a wide electorate. But the race is now truly in the hands of the superdelegates, and Obama is not in their good books anymore.
Pledged delegate count
Obama: 1,925.5
Clinton: 1,865.5
Obama has a delegate lead, but only 60 delegates, enough to be overturned easily by hundreds of superdelegates. After South Dakota, Clinton declares "They doubted me, and they doubted you. Yet that glass ceiling, the highest glass ceiling has 18 million cracks in it and it is about to shatter. I can tell you, I am the comeback kid! In fact, we're all comeback kids! Let that be a lesson. We kept fighting and now we are going to win."
No candiadte has the 2,117 delegates needed to win. Obama urges superdelegates to obey the 'will of the people', but Clinton says the people want her, as most counts of the popular vote show her narrowly ahead. Obama points to his pledged delegate lead, but Clinton calls on the supers to "fulfill your responsibility to the party and make the right choice." A divided party struggles to choose but at Denver, Colorado, after months of back and forth and division, it does just that. By a margin of 50 votes, it chooses the first female President. It chose Hillary Clinton. And now, sitting in the Oval Office doing the finishing touches on her legacy, Clinton is glad they did. The party is pretty sure they made the right decision.
There. That is it. Hope you like it.
