AHC: Hillary '04

Being more moderate than Kerry, and of course having Clinton as the secret campaigning weapon, she'd beat Bush.

08...depends on what happens to the economy. Seeing how Bush's second term turned out, it might have been better in the long run for Bush to win a second term.
 
It's possible she would have won. Kerry came awfully close.

The problem is in what would have happened had she won. Unless she found some people for her economic team who weren't in the Rubin/Summers orbit, she would have fallen victim to the same orthodoxy that led to large red economic flags being ignored by the Bush people. They might have been a little quicker to react, but my own sense is that the scope of the problems in housing and finance was so large that anyone who followed an orthodox approach to economics would have been caught up in a debacle. Preventing the housing crash would have required massive intervention in 2005 and doing so would have run counter to all of the prevailing conventional wisdom of the time. There were warnings: Edward Gramlich, a Clinton Fed appointee who ran the post-9/11 airline bailout, thought the housing bubble was unsustainable, but credible people who publicly said much about it were far and few between. Moreover, even by 2005, there was so much bad CMO paper on the market that a crash may have been inevitable anyway.
 
Hillary definately wins in 2004, but I agree that the economy still probably crashes. She likely has a much more agressive response, but she still probably looses to someone like Romney in 2008.
 
Definitely would have won, as would Kerry, had he gone on offense early not been such a wet towel of a campaigner. With HRC at the helm, expect to see Bush get knocked off his pedestal like his dad. No Bush can handle the Clinton machine. ;)
 
She probably would have won, the she is very polarizing to some people. Also, who would her VP be? Evan Bayh?

I'm guessing the economy still goes down hill in 2008, which means we would Probably have President McCain right now. He was the runner up in 200 after all.
 
The main issue with Clinton in 2004, as with Obama in 2008 would be the experience issue. But with that put aside it's fairly easy to imagine her beating Bush. I think she certainly wins in Iowa and New Mexico. Those states were very close as is, and Clinton's more moderate stances, as well as the fact that Bill will almost certainly be campaigning heavily for her, probably will be enough to switch those states over.

The election probably comes down to Ohio, if Hillary can switch Ohio she wins the election. If not, she either loses the race, or she pulls off victory in Florida. But I think it is easy enough to imagine Clinton winning Iowa, New Mexico, and Ohio. That means she wins 284 electoral votes and therefore the Presidency.
 
No. Bush is the first true Southern Republican President and he has the entire region locked up. Hillary is to her husband's left. If her husband was that helpful, she'd have won more Southern states in 2008.
 
I think we're forgetting that Hilary has huge and permanent negative poll numbers, something above 30 percent, and, for a big chunk of 2007 and 2008, those numbers were either more than or very close than the number of people who merely had a favorable opinion of her.

I can't quite remember the term used, it's something along the lines of a "negative Q rating", but it refers to people who will not vote for her no matter who her opponent is. Run the gay, meth-addicted, lifelong welfare recipient, Muslim, love child of Stalin & Hitler against her and these folks would still vote for Adolph-Ioseb "Sugar Tushie" bin Laden rather than her.

During the 2008 election cycle, the Dems were very concerned about this negative Q rating as it meant that only 70 percent or so of the vote would supposedly be in play. Clinton would be handing any opponent in the general election a huge, almost insurmountable, lead and this led many Democrats to throw their support to Obama once he began to be seen as a plausible alternative.
 
I don't think Clinton really needs to win a southern state to win the election anyway. If she can pull off a win in Ohio, she can lose every state Kerry did and still end up President. Ohio might be tough for Clinton to turn. But if she doesn't win there, she probably has to win in Florida, which is tougher going by the OTL results.
 
Remember the existence of her husband-could Hillary nab Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, etc?

Maybe not nab them, but at least put them in play. As a Kentuckian, I'll tell you straight up that the Clintons are very popular here. Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and West Virginia will all be in play in a Clinton '04 scenario. If Clinton does well enough in Kentucky, expect Dan Mongiardo to beat Jim Bunning as well.
 
Best bet is campaign saying how bush screwed up the economy while her husband mad it boom and gave a surplus to u.s budget promising to continue her husbands policies....... She has a shot ithink.
 
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