AHC/Help req'd: A different WWI, a different Austria-Hungary

[Rum Medeniyeti]

Hello, people! I would like to ask you of how you'd view a different WWI, in which Austria-Hungary is stronger than OTL and allied with Britain. Who would be in which camp? How can I balance the 2 camps?

But first off let me tell you what I have in mind:
My POD is way back in the 1200's and as a result Poland is a bit stronger and Moldavia is much stronger. Moldavia is not conquered by the Ottomans and instead it becomes closely integrated with Poland-Lithuania and develops similar legislation and constitutional traditions. After the Deluge Poland is weakened as per OTL, but Moldavia emerges stronger. Because Moldavia wants to avoid being a puppet of Russia, in 1711 it elects Maria Theresia of Austria to be their Queen. Afterwards, the Bar Confederation in Poland elects Maria Theresia to be Queen of Poland.

The War between the Bar people and Russia goes on as per OTL and Poland is partitioned as per OTL but 1) Poles and Romanians (at least) feel strongly attached to the Habsburg dynasty; 2) Non-germanic Aristocracies (Polish, Moldavian, Croatian, Hungarian) are much more involved in running the Empire than in OTL and thus said ethnicities are less attracted to ethnic nationalism later on; 3) Polish constitutionalism influences the Habsburg legislation and there is a Bill of Righs as well as some constitional provisions for a (not-too-powerful) Parliament early on, during Maria Theresia's reign; 4) Austrian efficiency and strong bureaucracy, as well as the fact that the Crown has much, much more power than the Polish Crown had, mitigate or eliminate the less efficient parts of Polish Constitutionalism; 5) The Habsburg Monarchy's border with Russia is on the Dniester River.
As a result of all this Austria is much more powrful and more stable than in OTL.

Also, in unrelated developments: during the Spanish War of Succession, it is the Habsburgs that capture Gibralatar (they later acquire Ceuta and Tangier). Also after this war or after the Seven Years War, Austria takes Mozambique and Goa from the Portuguese. When Napoleon conquers the Netherlands it is the Austrians and not the British that take over the Cape Colony as well as Malacca from the Dutch.

In this TL, the Austrians are thus pretty powerful in regards to their Navy, but the British are still the best. However, the British are not the unrivaled masters of the oceans by the late 19th century as they were in OTL. I'm not sure on the details of how all this will come about: maybe the French will have a much stronger colonial empire as well, maybe the "Diplomatic Revolution" never happens and Austria does not break its alliance with Britain in the 18th cent.

In any case, in the 1900's, Austria has the following colonial empire: The Ionian Islands, indirect control over Malta, Gibraltar, Ceuta, Tangier, Sinai Peninsula (the British are in Egypt and basically they have joint control of the Suez canal), Djibouti Northern Yemen, Madagascar, Southern Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Goa, Ceylon, Malacca, the whole island of Borneo, Taiwan, New Zealand. Ok something along these lines.
The British have everything they had OTL, minus what's now in Austrian hands.

A word on Southern Africa: in my TL, the colonisation patterns of Southern Africa will be similar to those of Northern America (i.e. the natives will be largely igradually pushed back into the interior). Also the 3 500 000 - 3 700 000 people who in the second half of the 19th century emigrated to the US in OTL, in my TL go to Southern Africa. Thus Southern Africa is a very stable and powerful colony similar to Britain's Canada, only with more people and more resources.

Also important: the Prussian-Austrian War of 1866 lasts longer than in OTL, is much more bloody and brutal and the Prussians still win. After the Prussians burn Linz, there is no way in hell Austria will be allied with them ever again. Sentiments similar to those between Yankees and Southrons in the US develop between Northern Germans and German-speakers of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire.

The German Empire is formed as per OTL though, they overtake Austria-Hungary in industrial porduction (A-H is no.2 in this TL), and as per OTL, they are closing in on Britain, almost overtaking them as well. The Austrian-Prussian war was longer, but not long enough so that people would loose that "let's-go-to-war, this-will-be-such-an-adventure feeling" that contributed to WWI starting. The Germans will also build a fleet better and larger than in OTL.

So WWI eventually starts with the following camps:

Camp 1
British Empire
--(Canada)
--(India)
--(Aus)
--(etc.)
Austria-Hungary
--(Southern Africa)
--(Ionian Islands)
--(Borneo)
--(NZ)
--(etc.)
Greece

Camp 2
German Empire
(I'm thinking) Russian Empire (not sure)
Serbia
Ottoman Empire

My QUESTION(S):
In which camp would be the other powers and countries? I would like the two sides to be roughly balanced (at the moment, even with Russia on the side of Germany, they're kind of imbalanced).

Here are some countries I don't know in which camp to put:
-French Republic
-Denmark
-Sweden (yes, I'd like these two to participate, if possible on different sides, if possible Denmark being on the British side)
-Netherlands
-Italy
-Persian Empire
-Japanese Empire
-Chinese Empire
-Romania, Bulgaria (or Romania-Bulgaria, a possible state that was actually considered OTL; given that in this timeline Moldavia is part of Austria-Hungary, and only Wallachia constitutes Romania, it's possible that a Bulgarian-Romanian union would be formed)
-(possybly) Cyprus (I'm conisidering having Cyprus as an independent realm in this TL, due to unrelated developments
-Luxembourg
-others

Again, I want the two sides to be roughly equal in capacity. You can meddle with any countries' power if you'd like.

Also what interests would push these countries in one camp or another. Maybe business relations, maybe sphere-of-influence considerations. I am really at a loss as to which country to put in which camp....

Word to the wise: Please, please be constructive. I know, I know, I have a tendency to mirror OTL. I actually like timelines that feature only slight diffrences from our timeline and do not wildly differ from it. So yes, this TL will feature a WWI, and a WWII, if timelines that mirror OTL are not your thing, please understand this is what I'd like to have.

That being said, obviously there will be some differences and probably this diffreneces will be significant after WWII (maybe different developments in Russia either after WWI or WWII).

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

No one? Come on, guys...

 

[iddt3]

A POD in 1200 where there is still a WW1 strains plausibility, even with your disclaimer.

 

[Detlef]

Well, iddt3 has a point.
With a POD in the 1200s, expecting that 19th century borders in Europe stay the same is a bit far fetched. you know?

Anyway, several points:

The Germans will also build a fleet better and larger than in OTL.

They won´t or better said can´t.
With a potentially hostile France in the West and Austria-Hungary in the South, more money needs to be spend on the army. No way they can afford a fleet "better and larger than in OTL".

As a result of all this Austria is much more powrful and more stable than in OTL.

How did you get rid of nationalism?
The "Austrian" side here is even weaker - population wise - than in OTL. And unless you have changed the Hungarian nobles they´ll still try to get the best deal for them. Not for Hungary, not for Austria-Hungary, for them.

Also, in unrelated developments: during the Spanish War of Succession, it is the Habsburgs that capture Gibralatar (they later acquire Ceuta and Tangier). Also after this war or after the Seven Years War, Austria takes Mozambique and Goa from the Portuguese. When Napoleon conquers the Netherlands it is the Austrians and not the British that take over the Cape Colony as well as Malacca from the Dutch.

The British won´t be happy. Because Austria-Hungary here controls all sea approaches to India, the jewel of the crown (Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, Cape colony, Ceylon, Malacca / Borneo).
I´m not sure if the British Empire would have stayed allied with a country which gradually - over the 18th and 19th century - managed to grab all that.
Basically British sea trade now depends on good relations with Austria-Hungary. Quite simply put - given all the Austrian-Hungarian colonies and naval bases around the world - the A-H fleet using cruiser warfare could strangle the British isles.
British politics allowing this over 2 centuries seem slightly unlikely to me?
(If that really happened in a TL, the British Empire quite likely would have joined Prussia in 1866 because Austria-Hungary was a much greater threat to the British Empire than Prussia or a united Germany.)

There is also the fact that Britain´s oldest ally, Portugal, lost Mozambique and Goa to Austria-Hungary somehow?

And anyway, how did Austria-Hungary manage to take over all these colonies? In OTL - during these 2 centuries - they fought wars against France, Italy, the Ottoman Empire and Prussia. And somehow they find the resources to also build a sizable navy? Allowing them to grab numerous colonies in Africa and Asia?

In which camp would be the other powers and countries? I would like the two sides to be roughly balanced (at the moment, even with Russia on the side of Germany, they're kind of imbalanced).

Here are some countries I don't know in which camp to put:
-French Republic
-Denmark
-Sweden (yes, I'd like these two to participate, if possible on different sides, if possible Denmark being on the British side)
-Netherlands
-Italy
-Persian Empire
-Japanese Empire
-Chinese Empire
-Romania, Bulgaria (or Romania-Bulgaria, a possible state that was actually considered OTL; given that in this timeline Moldavia is part of Austria-Hungary, and only Wallachia constitutes Romania, it's possible that a Bulgarian-Romanian union would be formed)
-(possybly) Cyprus (I'm conisidering having Cyprus as an independent realm in this TL, due to unrelated developments
-Luxembourg

Russia:
Put Russia in the camp opposing Austria-Hungary. Balkan rivalries and the Austrian border "with Russia is on the Dniester River" will ensure it.

French Republic:
If Germany still grabbed Alsace-Lorraine France will be in the Austrian-British camp.

Denmark:
Would like Northern Schleswig back from Germany. So pro-British. On the other hand, Denmark is a small country that shares a land border with Germany. Since they´re not suicidal, they´ll stay neutral.

Sweden:
Some pro-German feelings, on the other hand some anti-Russian feelings. Will stay neutral if possible while still selling iron ore to Germany.

Netherlands:
Some pro-German feelings. Because of the Cape colony and Malacca / Borneo probably some anti-Austrian feelings. Did they keep any colonies at all in South East Asia? Probably neutral with pro-German policies.

Italy:
Poor Italy.
Lost Savoy and Nice to France in 1860. Austria-Hungary still owns some Italian territories. Austria-Hungary also owns parts of the Balkans, the Ionian Islands and controls Malta. Greece - allied to Britain and Austria-Hungary - also has some Balkan interests.
Italy will seethe with resentment but they are surrounded by potential enemies. And reliant on British coal.
They´ll stay neutral. If the Austrian-Hungarian side looks to be losing though, they´ll jump in.

Persia:
Bothered in the North by Russia, in the South by the British.
They´ll try to stay neutral. Maybe join the winning side late in a war.

Japan:
Good relations to both Germany (military advisers for the army) and the British Empire (military advisers for the navy).
In OTL they joined the Entente because it allowed them to grab German Kiautschou and the German Pacific islands. On the other hand Austria-Hungary owning Taiwan will bother them a lot too.
Slight advantage for the Austrian-British alliance for now. The German colonies seem to be easier targets.

China:
Neutral until pushed by the stronger side to join the war.
(See OTL. China had real grievances with Czarist Russia, Japan and France. The German treaty port of Kiautschou compared to that was minor. Still China joined the war on the Entente side.)

Romania, Bulgaria (or Romania-Bulgaria):
Generally pro-Russian, anti-Ottoman Empire. They´d like some Ottoman territory. Here though Austria-Hungary is stronger and more threatening.
Neutral at first. Then probably joining the German-Russian side.

Cyprus:
Anti-Ottoman Empire, pro-Greek. Will join the Greek side.

Luxembourg:
Luxembourg is neutral while still being a member of the German customs union. In OTL till 1919. Till 1867 it was also a member of the German Confederation and a Confederation fortress.
Would like to stay neutral. Will be occupied by whoever gets there first. German or French.
(Gut feeling: A French occupation might trigger a stronger Dutch public reaction than a German occupation.)

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

Thank you very much for your response. Here are my thoughts on your points

With a POD in the 1200s, expecting that 19th century borders in Europe stay the same is a bit far fetched. you know?

Possibly. But that is generally my style. I believe most readers relate better to things they find familiar. Of course us geeks (well I, at least) can entertain scenarios that are wildly different, but most of the time I found that it helps if one retains familiarty even at the cost of credibility.

And then there's the whole other thing of fate. I believe that there is a sense of ... destiny in the greater scheme of things, that History has a tendency to stick to is current timeline as much as possible. Obviously that's probably a very silly thing. But if you think about it, all we do here is speculation. We can't really ascertain how "butterflies" will change history, we can't even begin to imagine. Can we track the lives of all people involved? Or know what personality will come to life as a result of even a minor change and then modify history the way Alexander or Napoleon did? I don't think we really can. So what we can do is basically tell a good story. Anyway, just my take on AH style and for the record I have enjoyed quite a few stories that diverged very much from OTL so I don't at all claim to be "right" or that this is the only way to write AH. Just an explanation of my style....

They won´t or better said can´t.
With a potentially hostile France in the West and Austria-Hungary in the South, more money needs to be spend on the army. No way they can afford a fleet "better and larger than in OTL".

I think you're right in regards to this, but is it not at all possible for France to be friendly or at least to have a neutral attitude to Germany? If I recall correctly, the general opinion in France as late as the 1890's was that most probably the next war would be with England. And the sentiment in Britain was the same; I even recall that novels were written (bad ones) at the time about a possible attack on Dover by way of an underground tunnel under the Channel. So yeah, people were pissed in France about the Alsace-Lorraine thing but for a long time most of them realised that their main rival was Britain imperialism-wise.

Also wasn't the whole point of France's diplomatic isolation the desire by the Germans that they shouldn't have to worry about it as much? Or at least that's what Bismark seems to have intended...

How did you get rid of nationalism?
The "Austrian" side here is even weaker - population wise - than in OTL. And unless you have changed the Hungarian nobles they´ll still try to get the best deal for them. Not for Hungary, not for Austria-Hungary, for them.

Ethnic nationalism will still exist, but it will be rivaled by 2 other things: loyalism and civic nationalism (in the same way that you didn't see Scots or Welsh rebel in the UK in 1848). Basically a tradition of liberty and limited constitutionalism (as mentioned) will exist after Maria Theresia in the Habsurg lands. And while some rulers like Francis II/I will excercise a lot of personal power, there will not be the same feeling of lack of control over one's destiny as certain things such as the censorship that existed OTL will not exist in my TL. Also after Matternich's political system will collapse (and this system itself will be slightly different in this TL because in my TL there is already a Parliament, though with very limited powr), the Habsburgs will react better to the opposing forces, mainly due to better advisors and to Windisch-Graetz's wife not dieing in Prague.

If I recall correctly even in OTL the German and Czech revolutionaries in Prague in 1848 initially were friendly to each other and they both asked for a constitutional monarchy. Then WG's wife accidentally dies in a firefight and WG orders his troops to fire on protesters. Because of how the whole 1848 thing ended, basically the Old Czechs lost their hold on the Czech people to the Young Czechs. Same with the Old and Young Slovenes (though the SLovenes were generally much less radical and more willing to accomodate the Monarchy's demands).

However, in my TL, due to differing and better circumstances, things work out differently and among some ethnicities (like the Czechs and Slovenes and the Croats and the Serbs) an idea similar to OTL's Austroslavism will prevail (that they can realise their national ideals inside the Monarchy). Other people like the Moldavian Romanians as well as the Poles are fervently loyalist.

The Hungarians and the Transylvanian Romanians and the Slovaks are more ambiguous but basically in 1848 there will be a mini civil war between Hungarians (who rebel) and everyone else in the Crown of St Stephen (Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Serbs). Those other nationalities will fight for the Crown or in the name of the Crown (as they largely did in OTL). However, unlike OTL, not only the Croats but the other ethnicities as well will have (limited) recognition from the Crown. I.e. in my TL the Romanians' Avram Iancu will be made a Baron or at least Edler or Ritter for services to the Crown (in OTL, by comparison he was under secret police supervision his entire life despite having fought in the Emperor's name). Also even before this the Monarchy will have behaved better towards its ethnicities before 1848 as well (better responses and reactions to things like Supplex Libellus Valachorum, the Romanians' Momorandum or the Slovaks' demands for more Slovak schools and cultural authonomy)

Dualism will still take place, because of the Hungarian nobles' influence and because the Habsburgs will attempt basically a balancing act. However, while Cisleithania will evolve towards a federalist model where most power resides with the Crown Lands (and even within some Crown Lands there are districts with large authonomy such as the Slovene parts of Styria), with the central government controlling things like the military, external politics, the post office, maybe railroads and certain other things (I'll base my model on Switzerland and the early US), well, Transleithania (Hungary), as in OTL will try to become a centralised Magyar state and will attempt Magyarisation. After WWI, there will be another mini Civil War in Transleithania and during this war the Hungarian Soviet Republic will be proclaimed. After that the Crown will intervene in force to dissolve the "Soviet Republic" and basically integrate Transleithania within the model that worked in Cisleithania. So we'll have one parliament till 1860's then 2 parliaments till 1920 or so and then again 1 parliament. More on what will happen next in the TL itself....

The British won´t be happy....

I've thought about this. My take is that if France will be more powerful in regards to their colonial empire or if the Prussians develop a serious colonial empire of their own, the British-Austrian alliance started due to European realpolitik and necessity in regards to the seas (as both British and Austrians can hurt each other in basically the same ways and disrupt each other's access to their colonies), well this alliance will continue once they will have one or two serious contenders, especially in Africa.

There is also the fact that Britain´s oldest ally, Portugal, lost Mozambique and Goa to Austria-Hungary somehow?

And anyway, how did Austria-Hungary manage to take over all these colonies? In OTL - during these 2 centuries - they fought wars against France, Italy, the Ottoman Empire and Prussia. And somehow they find the resources to also build a sizable navy? Allowing them to grab numerous colonies in Africa and Asia?

Several things. The Habsburgs and Venice will have a much different relationship in my TL than in OTL, due to complex factors. As a result of that and other things Venice's fleet will be better maintained and also the Habsburgs will have a moderately effective fleet of their own; both of these fleets will be the ones that will capture Gibraltar and Ceuta during the Spanish War of Succession (istead of the Dutch and British capture of Gribraltar -- accidental capture might I add OTL), and the 2 fortresses will be staffed with Habsburg troops. This will open up a route for Venice and the Habsburgs to the high seas.

Also during the Spanish War of Succ., the Portuguese will choose the wrong side (the Bourbons) and this is how they will loose at least some of their colonies.

To tell you the truth I haven't yet thought exactly how the Seven Years' War will develop. I have even considered putting Austria and Britain on opposing sides in this one war. I have considered the opposite as well, obviously (them being allies again after the Spanish War of Succ., and the "Diplomatic revolution" never taking place). The thing is as a result of the 7 Years War the Habsbugs loose Silesia (they don't loose it in the Austrian War of Succ. in my timeline), but they gain some colonies, for example Mozambique and whatever they didn't already win from the Portuguese during the Spanish War. (the Portuguese will keep Angola and their American possessions, though, and maybe some other things...)

As mentioned before the Dutch colonies will be taken over when Napoleon takes over the Netherlands.

I generally envision the long British-Austrian alliance, even in the case it's interrupted at some point and then re forged, to be one of necessity. Other rivals appear and they will feel they first should take care of those instead of being involved in a general war with each other that could potentially disrupt each other's access to their colonies. I do admit I still have a lot of thinking to do on the specifics, but obviously a lot will depend on other factors, determined by what's different in Europe and beyond as a result of my very early POD.

Russia:

Agreed. So we'll have a German-Russian alliance. But because of the Ottoman-German alliance the Russians will find themselves allied with the Turks.
Well things are a lot different in this TL anyway in regards to the near east, especially in regards to the demographics of the place (I'll have more Greeks and Armenians and generally non-Muslims living there, so even if there is for any reason an Armenian genocide or Greek massacres, there will be enough left after the war).

French Republic:

I'm not so sure about this one. Is there no chance whatsoever that France will decide to follow its colonial interests instead? I'm really not sure about this one. If I'm not mistaken, what pushed both France and the UK into the Entente was the Moroccan crisis and Germany's behaviour during that.

Denmark:
Sweden:

Well, you're right, but here an AHC: if you can somehow have Denmark allied with Britain and Sweden with Germany, with fighting and trenches going on in Southern Sweden and with Denmark receiving Norway and its former provinces after the War from Sweden, well, that will be sth.
(But I think one might need to meddle with the demographics of the place as well to complete that AHC, i.e. if there is still a significant Danish minority in Southern Sweden, maybe that could push things to the breaking point...)

Netherlands:
Some pro-German feelings. Because of the Cape colony and Malacca / Borneo probably some anti-Austrian feelings. Did they keep any colonies at all in South East Asia? Probably neutral with pro-German policies.

In my TL, there is a Branch of the Habsburg dynasty ruling in Belgium. It descends from a liberal Prince who was very much at odds with his family and Belgium is in this TL neutral as in OTL. But still the Dutch will probably perceive it as the Catholic Austrian Netherlands. So yes, the Dutch will have both geopolitical as well as emotional reasons to be on the German side.

That being said, Belgium, despite the "Duchy of Burgundy" rhetoric of its monarchy and the Habsburg name of their Kings is not at all a pawn of Austria or in any other way in the Austrian sphere. It is a neutral country with strong relations to both the UK and France as it was in OTL.

Italy:

Venetia is still part of Austria in this TL, as Manin and his band fought for and not against the Emperor in my story (Venetian localism played a large role in that, as well as the fact that constitutionalism does exist in the Empire in this TL and the Habsburgs respond better to demands etc. everything already mentioned). So yes, Italy is almost guaranteed to ally with Germany. But then there is the coal thing. Maybe if France jumps in the German side as well? I don't know.

Persia:

right...

Japan:

China:

i'm still thinking about these ones...

Romania, Bulgaria (or Romania-Bulgaria):

Indeed, probably on the German-Russian side. So poor little Greece with Serbia and Bulgaria-Romania and the Ottomans jumping at her.

Cyprus:

I haven't thought on the history of Cyprus yet, but they will be under a surviving Lusignan dynasty converted to Orthodox Christianity. At some point they would have been forced to be vassals of the Ottomana and at some point they had regained their independence. Maybe at some point they will also (re)gain Little Armenia in Cilicia and Seleucia, so that will be a thorn in the Ottomans' side.

So thanks again for all the input....

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

Sorry for the double post.

Ok so here we go, I've thought about this and basically this is what I have so far:

Camp 1
British Empire
--(Canada)
--(India)
--(Aus)
--(etc.)
Austria-Hungary
--(Southern Africa)
--(Ionian Islands)
--(NZ)
--(etc.)
Denmark
Greece
Cyprus(-Cilician Armenia)

Camp 2
German Empire
Russian Empire
Ottoman Empire
Japanese Empire
Sweden
Netherlands
Romania-Bulgaria
Serbia



Italy, Persia and China will stay neutral at first and maybe join the war later on (I'm thinking Persia and China for the British-Austrian side and Italy for the German-Russian alliance).
Belgium will want to stay neutral, but it will be drawn into the war into the British-Austrian camp.

The big question is France. I feel that if I put France in the Austrian-British camp it will be too unbalanced. Remember in this TL Austria-Hungary is way way more powerful than in OTL so even with having the Germans allied with the Russians, the fact that Austria-Hungary and its colonial empire joins forces with the British Empire which is still the most powerful empire of them all, means that the 2 camps are already slightly unbalanced.

Again, as mentioned before, it's not that unthinkable, even in OTL that France would have chosen to pick a fight with the Brits over their colonial empires insted with the Germans over Alsace-Lorraine.

But if put France in the German-Russian side then I feel that I make that particular camp too powerful.

So what do you guys think, where should France go to make things balanced? We can move players from one camp to another as long as Austria-Hungary and Germany are on opposing sides.

 

[Detlef]

Sorry for the double post.

Ok so here we go, I've thought about this and basically this is what I have so far:

Camp 1
British Empire
--(Canada)
--(India)
--(Aus)
--(etc.)
Austria-Hungary
--(Southern Africa)
--(Ionian Islands)
--(NZ)
--(etc.)
Denmark
Greece
Cyprus(-Cilician Armenia)

Camp 2
German Empire
Russian Empire
Ottoman Empire
Japanese Empire
Sweden
Netherlands
Romania-Bulgaria
Serbia



Italy, Persia and China will stay neutral at first and maybe join the war later on (I'm thinking Persia and China for the British-Austrian side and Italy for the German-Russian alliance).
Belgium will want to stay neutral, but it will be drawn into the war into the British-Austrian camp.

The big question is France. I feel that if I put France in the Austrian-British camp it will be too unbalanced. Remember in this TL Austria-Hungary is way way more powerful than in OTL so even with having the Germans allied with the Russians, the fact that Austria-Hungary and its colonial empire joins forces with the British Empire which is still the most powerful empire of them all, means that the 2 camps are already slightly unbalanced.

Again, as mentioned before, it's not that unthinkable, even in OTL that France would have chosen to pick a fight with the Brits over their colonial empires insted with the Germans over Alsace-Lorraine.

But if put France in the German-Russian side then I feel that I make that particular camp too powerful.

So what do you guys think, where should France go to make things balanced? We can move players from one camp to another as long as Austria-Hungary and Germany are on opposing sides.

Camp1 loses and loses badly.
I mean just look at it?

1. Germany gets all of the supplies and food it needs from Sweden and Russia.
2. France is neutral, Russia an ally. So Germany can concentrate on Denmark, Belgium and Austria-Hungary as needed.
3. The Erzgebirge (ore mountains) will seriously hamper any Austrian-Hungarian offensives into Germany. Denmark will be conquered early on, Belgium will never ever dare to declare war on anyone.
4. Austria-Hungary will be in serious trouble in the Balkans. With Russia, Romania-Bulgaria, Serbia and the Ottoman Empire allied against them. Not to mention that the only sizable A-H ports are in the Northern Adriatic. Their supposed colonial Empire is entirely useless here. Just how are alleged A-H colonial troops supposed to even reach Austria-Hungary?
5. Just how is a surrounded Austria-Hungary expected to survive?
6. And likewise how is Denmark expected to survive?

Denmark and Belgium are dead the moment they declare war against Germany. It´s obvious so they would never do it in any sane TL.
Following your alliances Austria-Hungary should be pretty worried in this TL. They are surrounded by countries all looking for a piece of A-H territory. Lots of wolves and the allies far, far away.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

Ok So France goes into Camp 1 with looking to get back Alsace-Lorraine and thus Germany will fight on two fronts as before.

Italy will probably still join Camp2 but Persia might join Camp 1 and open a 3rd front for the Ottoman Empire. Also Colonial troops reach Europe by the Suez Canal which is jointly controlled by Austria-Hungary (Sinai) and Britain (Egypt). It's also a factor I think the fact that the pattern of colonisation being different in Southern Africa than in OTL, Southern Africa is a pretty powerful colony, capable of sending lots of troops to Europe.

Are the 2 camps roughly equal now with France in Camp 1? At least in Europe... I do need Camp 1 to eventually win. If things as they stand do lead to a Camp 2 victory even with France joining the British-Austrian entente, then Japan will go in camp 1 as well, but then won't things be unbalanced, even with the Swedish Ore and most of Eastern Europe controlled by Russia and Germany?

I've also thought of a Norwegian revolt against the Swedes that might give them some headache....

But the main point is that in this scenario, beyond the Swedes and the Danes and the Dutch etc. the main difference is that Russia and Austria-Hungary have their alliances flipped. However, in this TL Austria-Hungary is more powerful, not less, then Russia and this is why things seem kind of unbalanced.

ALSO: A-H also has a port at the Black Sea, Cetatea Alba / Akkerman (today in OTL Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi). The border with Russia is on the Dniester, remember...

 

[Detlef]

This TL is really difficult.
Just to repeat myself:

1. In your TL the British isles basically allow Austria-Hungary to control all the sea lanes important to the British Empire? Personally I just can´t see that.
   Quote British Lord Palmerston: "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests."
2. And second, a more powerful Austria-Hungary interested in colonies would result in problems with the British Empire to say the least. No way a 200 year alliance would survive (see above).
3. And third despite fighting numerous wars in Europe and not having the best coastal locations Austria-Hungary somehow gets an impressive colonial empire. Just building the navy and merchant fleet for that would require a long period of peace in Europe to free up resources. And politicians and merchants following that policy for decades. It didn´t happen in OTL so why did it happen here?

But let´s disregard my doubts and come back to your last post.

Look at a map! Austria-Hungary is basically encircled.
That port in the Black Sea is basically useless once the Ottoman Empire declares war. The Austrian-Hungarian ports in the Northern Adria are equally useless once Italy declares war.
Any Austrian-Hungarian colonial troops now either land in Suez (war against the Ottoman Empire) or Greece (war against all other Balkan countries).

The problem is that with your alliances Russia is pretty free from any pressure. European Russia will feed allied Germany and produce some needed resources. Likewise allied Germany will surely have invested in allied Russia before the war (kind of like what France did in OTL before WW1). And of course the Russian army is somewhat "underemployed". Their one close enemy is Austria-Hungary while Austria-Hungary has to defend against:
a) Germany
b( the Balkan countries
c) Russia
d) Italy

Austria-Hungary is dead!

And the Russians will still have some armies left over to either defend the Far East against Japan or worry the British in Persia.

And without having to defend against the Russian, the Ottoman Empire will also deploy more troops South (Suez, Basra).

I should also mention that Norway became an independent country in OTL in 1905. Civilized and quiet. A plebiscite voted for an independent Norway and Sweden accepted the result. So I don´t quite see why a Norwegian revolt would happen here?

Oh, and Denmark - if they were really insane enough to declare war - are dead too. Too close to Germany to even contemplate sending several hundred thousand British soldiers there and keep them supplied. Won´t happen.

 

[Rum Medeniyeti]

This TL is really difficult.
Just to repeat myself:

1. In your TL the British isles basically allow Austria-Hungary to control all the sea lanes important to the British Empire? Personally I just can´t see that.
   Quote British Lord Palmerston: "Nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests."
2. And second, a more powerful Austria-Hungary interested in colonies would result in problems with the British Empire to say the least. No way a 200 year alliance would survive (see above).

Well, it's certainly no friendship, just as there has been no friendship between France and England, but in fact they were competitors in regards to their colonial empires and a long times they thought there would be a war between them. But there wasn't because the circumstances of the moment dictated otherwise.

Here are a couple of reasons why a war between the Habsburgs and the Brits didn't happen (of course, again, I haven't thought out at all how the Seven Years War would go, except that Austria would loose Silesia in it and it will gain some colonies; but except for that):

a) the fact that both have pretty strong navies (though the Brits have the best one), means that both their commercial activities would be really threatened in case of war. Now I would imagine that means there are some pretty strong interests on both sides that there would be no war.

b) first they preferred to deal with the weaker competition from France and Russia

c) secondly they were very alarmed by the German-Russian alliance

And third despite fighting numerous wars in Europe and not having the best coastal locations Austria-Hungary somehow gets an impressive colonial empire. Just building the navy and merchant fleet for that would require a long period of peace in Europe to free up resources. And politicians and merchants following that policy for decades. It didn´t happen in OTL so why did it happen here?

I think I outlined the basics of that in my previous posts. Obviously this TL is in a very incipient phase. But the capturing of Gibraltar and a very strong alliance/relationship with Venice would help the Habsburgs. Most of this happens after the War of Spanish Succession, but obviously there would be processes that start long before that. And a lot of that would have to do with an easier situation for the Habsburgs in Central Europe, not only due to a different attitude of regional elites, towards the regime, but also because of the fact that said attitude would change the nature of the Habsburgs' regime into something that would be more acceptable for everyone (as outlined in my previous posts).

Look at a map! Austria-Hungary is basically encircled.
That port in the Black Sea is basically useless once the Ottoman Empire declares war. The Austrian-Hungarian ports in the Northern Adria are equally useless once Italy declares war.
Any Austrian-Hungarian colonial troops now either land in Suez (war against the Ottoman Empire) or Greece (war against all other Balkan countries).

Quite true. Except that the Ottomans have another front in Cilicia if Cyprus got Cilicia back previously after an alt-1877 war between the Ottomans and who knows who else (Russia, Austrians, both... haven't decided yet). If Persia joins the war as well, that would creat 3 fronts for the Ottomans (though Persia is admittedly very weak). Also Greeks are better in this TL due to both better demographics as well as different political evolutions sice the Greek Revolution.

There will also be fighting in Central Asia between the Russians and the English and the English would win. And of course I'm still thinking where Japan will go.

But the most important thing here is that Russia still has all the problems that it had in OTL, while Aus.-H. does not have most of the problems that it had in OTL (and even in OTL, the A-H military resisted united for a remarkable amount of time with remarkably few desertions). This means that Russia will eventually crack, while the Br-AH-Fr Entente would not.

I should also mention that Norway became an independent country in OTL in 1905. Civilized and quiet. A plebiscite voted for an independent Norway and Sweden accepted the result. So I don´t quite see why a Norwegian revolt would happen here?

Oh, and Denmark - if they were really insane enough to declare war - are dead too. Too close to Germany to even contemplate sending several hundred thousand British soldiers there and keep them supplied. Won´t happen.

Ok thanks for pointing that out. This means that I'll have to change some of that in my TL. Somehow this has to be different. In my TL either the Swedes will offer more resistance and thus the Norwegians will revolt during WWI, or Denmark-Norway is somehow re-created before the war and Norway thus enters the war on the British side as well. We'll see.

Again, thanks a lot for all the help, it's nice to have someone to bounce these ideas off of.