AHC: Have Vichy France resist the Japanese invasion of Indochina

[La Rouge Beret]

The Vichy French colonies of Indochina were in a difficult situation in September 1940 being isolated from their homeland and facing a numerically superior enemy with shorter lines of communication. In your opinion what POD is required to have the French fight their occupation by the Japanese? And if the Vichy French fight Japan what impact would that have on the Pacific Campaign?

 

[Emperor-of-New-Zealand]

I'm also interested in what Hitler's Germany would do in this situation! Sorry I can't add to an answer, but I added to the question

 

[lothaw]

Fight them with what? All they would have in place at the time to resist Japan moving in, is a few colonial troops.

Given their military restrictions, coupled with navy's inability to project power on that side of the world, it would end in disaster for them if they tried. The one carrier they have isn't exactly top of the line.

Still, if Petain made an effort to resist the move, such as the French fleet and some troopships setting sail, Hitler probably would just flat out tell Petain to let Japan do what they want or else.

 

[mcdo]

Fight them with what? All they would have in place at the time to resist Japan moving in, is a few colonial troops.

Given their military restrictions, coupled with navy's inability to project power on that side of the world, it would end in disaster for them if they tried. The one carrier they have isn't exactly top of the line.

Still, if Petain made an effort to resist the move, such as the French fleet and some troopships setting sail, Hitler probably would just flat out tell Petain to let Japan do what they want or else.

I don't suppose this could actually result in France losing more territory to the Empire of Japan, could it? Let's say the French resist, and Japanese forces take some losses. Is there any way the Axis forces the French to hand over bases in Madagascar, too? Or is that too unlikely?

 

[pwarner328]

I don't suppose this could actually result in France losing more territory to the Empire of Japan, could it? Let's say the French resist, and Japanese forces take some losses. Is there any way the Axis forces the French to hand over bases in Madagascar, too? Or is that too unlikely?

be a bitch of a supply line, and, I think if Japan tries to take madagascar, the Brits invade

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Certainly sailing a fleet 1/2 across the world against a disciplined, highly motivated enemy fleet is reminiscent of Tsushimina. I would think that for this decision to be taken that it would require a stronger military presence in Indochina prior to WWII. As for their conduct a retreat into the interior after surrendering the coastline would be the most feasible strategy.

How about if the Governor of French Indochina states that he will resist the occupation of Indochina and if necessary will defect to the Free French in order to receive any available materials.

 

[Grey Wolf]

This gives an idea of the forces France has available

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco-Thai_War

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[lothaw]

be a bitch of a supply line, and, I think if Japan tries to take madagascar, the Brits invade

They did anyways without the Japanese.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

They did anyways without the Japanese.

Lothaw is correct - this is a non-starter.

The French Navy just got interned/trashed (Mers El Kebir), and even if it hadn't, it lacked the firepower to take on the IJN - even if the logistical issues of projecting power that far away are taken into account.

The best that could be managed is De Gaulle saying 'Non!' (despite the fact that the French in IndoChina where following orders from Vichy), and for some insane reason the Brits (perhaps to placate De Gaulle and get the Free French more actively on Britain's side) decide to back that with an ultimatum and maybe deploy some Indian or ANZAC troops to Hanoi.

This is almost ASB in my mind, however.

Mike Turcotte

 

[lothaw]

Lothaw is correct - this is a non-starter.

The French Navy just got interned/trashed (Mers El Kebir), and even if it hadn't, it lacked the firepower to take on the IJN - even if the logistical issues of projecting power that far away are taken into account.

The best that could be managed is De Gaulle saying 'Non!' (despite the fact that the French in IndoChina where following orders from Vichy), and for some insane reason the Brits (perhaps to placate De Gaulle and get the Free French more actively on Britain's side) decide to back that with an ultimatum and maybe deploy some Indian or ANZAC troops to Hanoi.

This is almost ASB in my mind, however.

Mike Turcotte

Even Churchill isn't brazen enough to start a war with Japan on his own hook at this point. De Gaulle might well be crazy enough to try something like that, but that would dimish his standing with the allies even more at this point.

Not to mention if the British Empire are seen as the aggressors, that would paint an entirely different picture in America leading up to the election of 1940.

 

[John Farson]

A France Fighting On from the Empire could theoretically have resisted the Japanese when they asked to put bases there, since the MN would still be intact and on the Allied side. But the power disparity would have been so great that it wouldn't have prevented the Japanese from taking over. At best, maybe a month's time could have been bought. Though that could have had butterflies with regards to Japan's other campaigns and Singapore in particular.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

A France Fighting On from the Empire could theoretically have resisted the Japanese when they asked to put bases there, since the MN would still be intact and on the Allied side. But the power disparity would have been so great that it wouldn't have prevented the Japanese from taking over. At best, maybe a month's time could have been bought. Though that could have had butterflies with regards to Japan's other campaigns and Singapore in particular.

I think in a stand-up fight between the IJN and MN in 1940 or 1941, the IJN wins in a walk. I think the IJN intercepts the MN well short of the South China Sea and utterly trashes it.

In addition to being outnumbered (and massively outnumbered in CVs), the MN is outclassed (way outclassed, actually), on a ship-to-ship basis as well.

BEARN (assuming it even gets that far) can not stand up to AKAGI, KAGA, HIRYU, SORYU, ZUIKAKU, SHOKAKU, etc. PARIS and BRETAGNE can not even BEGIN to stand up to FUSO and HYUGA - to say nothing of YAMATO if the Japanese get it out quickly enough.

Mike Turcotte.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

Even Churchill isn't brazen enough to start a war with Japan on his own hook at this point. De Gaulle might well be crazy enough to try something like that, but that would dimish his standing with the allies even more at this point.

Not to mention if the British Empire are seen as the aggressors, that would paint an entirely different picture in America leading up to the election of 1940.

Agreed. As I said, basically ASB - but the best I could up with. Maybe Churchill sees this as a way to get the USA in? Kind of backdoor-ish - get the Americans involved in a war with Britain and against Japan in the Pacific to make them de facto - and eventually actual -Allies in Europe against Germany?

I mean, it's nuts, but maybe Churchill is desperate? Rommel does a bit better, and the PM starts looking for a way - any way - to get the US in?

Naw - still too nuts.

Mike Turcotte

 

[pwarner328]

They did anyways without the Japanese.

EXACTLY Besides I would like to see the japanese try to run a supply line through indonesia and around Singapore against British resistance. is it doable? maybe. Is it worth it? I doubt it

 

[The Vulture]

Might this lead to ties between the Thais and Japanese?

 

[lothaw]

Might this lead to ties between the Thais and Japanese?

Japan already strongarmed Thailand into their alliance OTL. Only difference this would make is Thailand might enter such an alliance a bit more willingly. Which basicly means they don't get off as light when they lose the war.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

I think we agree on the impossibility of a successful naval action at this late stage, however if the French looking at the overwhelming strength of the IJN / IJA opt to wage a guerilla war. What are the consequences over the long term if the IJA is forced to commit a larger number of troops in pacifying Indochina? How will this affect the campaign in the Pacific or the war in China?

 

[Cook]

In your opinion what POD is required to have the French fight their occupation by the Japanese?

The only conceivable POD would be for the Governor of French Indochina throwing in his lot with the Gaullists rather than Vichy. Given Indochina’s isolation from the other Vichy possessions and the proximity of British colonies this wouldn’t be a too wild decision.

Vichy was keen to make Hitler happy and Hitler wanted the Japanese in Indochina because it put pressure on the British Empire in the Far East, so there is no possibility of anything more than token opposition to Japanese occupation if Indochina is a Vichy possession.

Had Indochina gone over to the Free French early the changes would be considerable. A Japanese move against Indochina would have been tantamount to war against Britain; so occupation in September 1940 is unlikely. Without the occupation the American sanctions of Strategic materials may have been delayed or not been as severe.

Alternatively the Japanese may have brought forward plans to seize the Southern Resource Region in its’ entirety.

They did anyways without the Japanese.

The British invasion of Madagascar was prompted by the decrypting of messages between Berlin and Tokyo suggesting the use of the port facilities at Antisiranana as a Japanese submarine base.

Unlike Dakar and Syria there was no token Free French element to the invasion force and de Gaulle was not informed prior to the invasion taking place; this was a purely British action against a French colony to prevent its’ use as a Japanese base.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Cheers that helps me out... I may need some help in working out how Japan would respond to Indochina throwing their lot in with the Free French. It would also be interesting to see how the British would respond, would we see Buffalo's over Vietnam?