“The Stalin—Hitler Pact opened up the prospect that Stalin might do a similar deal with japan, with China a second Poland. Indeed, at this very moment, the Kremlin signed a ceasefire with Japan, bringing to a halt fighting that had been going on between the Soviet Red Army and the Japanese on the border of Outer Mongolia and Manchukuo. The Poland scenario caused Chiang Kai-shek acute concern, which he raised with Moscow. Mao's reaction, however, was one of delight. His whole strategy for the war with japan was aimed at prevailing on Russia to step in. Now a real chance appeared that Stalin might occupy part of China, and put Mao in charge. In late September that year, when Edgar Snow asked Mao how he felt about a Soviet—japanese pact, Mao's reply was enthusiastic. He said that Russia might sign such a pact 'as long as this does not hinder its support for . . . the interest of the world liberation movement [i.e., Mao himself and the CCP]'. Asked whether 'Soviet help to China's liberation movement may take a somewhat similar form' to Russian occupation of Poland, Mao gave a very positive reply: 'it is quite within the possibilities of Leninism'. The Poland scenario was now Mao's model for China.”
“Again, Mao was hoping that Russia would partition China with japan. Mao even had an ideal demarcation line, the Yangtze, which flows across the middle of China. To his inner circle, Mao dreamed of 'drawing a border . . . at the Yangtze. with us ruling one half . . .' Replicating the Poland scenario was indeed at the front of Stalin's mind, and Russia began talks with japan in September 1939, right after the signing of the Nazi—Soviet Pact, with the future of China very much at the centre of the negotiations.”
“The terms Japan offered on China did not begin to match Stalin's expectations. Tokyo would agree only to “a Russian sphere of influence in Outer Mongolia and Xinjiang,” which was hardly alluring to Stalin, as these two places were already in his pocket. japan also considered 'recognising and accepting the three northwestern provinces (Shaanxi, Gansu, and Ningxia) remaining a Chinese Communist base' - on condition that Russia agreed to 'restrain the anti—japanese activities of the Chinese Communists'. But this idea was again not nearly enough for Stalin, as the CCP was already occupying a much larger territory than these three provinces. Moscow's failure to strike a deal with Tokyo meant that Stalin's priority remained staving off the possibility of a japanese attack on Russia — and that meant Mao could not have his all—out war on Chiang yet. Stalin wanted a united China which could continue to bog down the japanese.”