AHC - Have the Turks decisively defeat Italy in 1912. What happens after that.

Italy is most likely neutral in WW1, maybe but just maybe on the CP side.

However apart from prestige, there isn't enough social upheaval to anticipate the 1922 event.
 

Cook

Banned
A Turkey that can decisively defeat Italy in 1912 isn't going to look like easy prey to the Balkan vultures, so you are unlikely to see a war in the Balkans in 1912 or 1913, and the military intelligence of a much smaller Serbia is likely to be far less confident, and consequently less likely to sanction and support terrorist actions by Serbian nationalists in Bosnia; that butterflies away the First World War.
 
A Turkey that can decisively defeat Italy in 1912 isn't going to look like easy prey to the Balkan vultures, so you are unlikely to see a war in the Balkans in 1912 or 1913, and the military intelligence of a much smaller Serbia is likely to be far less confident, and consequently less likely to sanction and support terrorist actions by Serbian nationalists in Bosnia; that butterflies away the First World War.

You're a little too late to prevent Serbia from conducting its... state-sponsored subversive programs, and romantic nationalists like The Black Hand tend not to be quite as directed by strict calculations of national interest. Granted, the assasination of F.F and the tumble that followed was such an unlikely series of events that any butterfly is likely to blow it away, but its hardly as though tensions between A-H and the Balkan nations could be kept down indefinately, especially with "Preventive wars on everybody!" Conrad in charge of the Viennese general staff.

Still, you're certainly right the Balkan League woulden't pounce on the Young Turks government in this case, saving quite a bit of Ottoman blood, treasure, and prestige while dealing a solid blow to Italy's reputation. In such a case, the Balkan League would probably retain its (nominally declared) Anti-Austrian defensive stance, and once King Carl croaks a few years later in Romania could possibly integrate Romania into its ranks. Without the fallout of territorial divisions in the region, we also likely don't see the relationship between Bulgaria and Serbia sour (And Bulgaria would still have Dobruja, which does wonders for her agricultural production and removes an irritant between them and Romania). This gives the Ottomans the breathing space they need to do some reorganization/reforms and parlay their military success into maybe getting one of the Great Powers into seriously consider integrating them into the alliance system (Depending on how the 1912 elections pan out and just who ends up on the top, this could be Germany or France... not likely Britain given the personalities in charge at the time).

Italy, on the other hand, would end up with a much more bruised military, its government having lost quite a bit of cash in the expensive debacle, and all of this during a period where the left is getting increasingly vocal. Indeed, one way you could bring this scenario about is by having labor unrest in the "Industrial Triangle" of the north flare up (Perhaps due to Italy introducing conscription after botching the initial invasion? Or deciding if they're going to go after Triopolitania they might as well snatch Albania too and thus will need more manpower?). Even if it dosen't, the traditional powers in Italy are going to be on the back foot relative to the Socalists after the failed campaign, and could go off in one of two directions; either they try to pull a real "Rally round the flag" effort and align with the Balkan League to try to salvage their Great Power reputation by pushing the Irridentist issues on Vienna, or they decided to pull inward and stomp on the Reds.
 

mad orc

Banned
Wow. I got some very good answers on the second part.
But what about the challenge itself, how is Turkey gonna win decisively?
 
Wow. I got some very good answers on the second part.
But what about the challenge itself, how is Turkey gonna win decisively?

Wait out. Italian expenditures were much more than the reserved budget they had. Italy can no longer fund the war and the Italians in the coastal towns can't go further. Wait until Britain and Germany says stop it.

Without a decent Navy there is no chance off* effectively beating Italy soon. So using the time and strategy you have is the best thing the Ottomans have left.
 
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mad orc

Banned
Wait out. Italian expenditures were much more than the reserved budget they had. Italy can no longer fund the war and the Italians in the coastal towns can't go further. Wait until Britain and Germany says stop it.

Without a decent Navy there is effectively beating Italy soon. So using the time and strategy you have is the best thing the Ottomans have left.
Good answer
 
Wait out. Italian expenditures were much more than the reserved budget they had. Italy can no longer fund the war and the Italians in the coastal towns can't go further. Wait until Britain and Germany says stop it.

Without a decent Navy there is effectively beating Italy soon. So using the time and strategy you have is the best thing the Ottomans have left.

There's already ten days of overlap between the Balkan League attacking and the OTL end of this war. Playing for time won't be intimidating enough to scare those countries off, so how long can the Turks afford to wait with that threat breathing down their necks?
 
There's already ten days of overlap between the Balkan League attacking and the OTL end of this war. Playing for time won't be intimidating enough to scare those countries off, so how long can the Turks afford to wait with that threat breathing down their necks?

With a different strategy the Ottomans can beat the League.

There will be a Great Power Intervention eventually.
 
If the original expeditionary force had been utterly annihilated, which was possible for a short moment, then Italy is basically going to have to start again, even if then they throw in tens of thousands more (like how they expanded). But you could get a Chechnya situation where the first assault is ignominiously defeated, and in this scenario it's possible that this would trigger a mass outbreak of unrest in Italy itself
 
With a different strategy the Ottomans can beat the League.

There will be a Great Power Intervention eventually.

The issue is that whole "Italy gets Libya" deal was something that France conceded to beforehand as part of "compensation" for Italy accepting/supporting French hegemony in Morocco, and Russia is likely to to lean in on their side in any international conference on the issue, while Britain was very lukewarm. Unless they can demonstrate some military advantage, the Ottomans don't exactly have a good chance of winning at the negotiating table.

If the original expeditionary force had been utterly annihilated, which was possible for a short moment, then Italy is basically going to have to start again, even if then they throw in tens of thousands more (like how they expanded). But you could get a Chechnya situation where the first assault is ignominiously defeated, and in this scenario it's possible that this would trigger a mass outbreak of unrest in Italy itself

Well, just the lose is unlikely to trigger massive unrest; vitriol from the Left, perhaps, but you'd need something like conscription riots in order to have it spiral down to the point Italy would be unable to project power (That, or AH rattling its sabers sufficently)
 
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