Have the Kazakh Khanate survive to the present-day--preferably with a PoD of 1700 or later.
For the record, this AHC interests me since present-day Kazakhstan styles itself as the successor of the Kazakh Khanate (for instance, take a look at Kazakhstan's "550th" birthday celebrations in 2015!).
Anyway, any thoughts on how to realistically do this?
It is rare for someone to be interested in the history of my country, well this is what I can tell you....Kazakh Khanate in the beginning of eighteenth century experienced a period of civil strife after the death of Tauke Khan, who ruled from 1680 to 1715. He managed to keep the three Jüzes(a jüz is a large tribal division of the Kazakh people) united, as from before his rule this tribal differences begun to be accentuated and strive for autonomy. Before 18th century most of the Kazakh khanate had one Khan, and the country was united, this disunity was one of the main causes of disastrous Kazakh defeats in the 18th century. This period in Kazakh history is called "Ақтабан шұбырынды, Алқакөл сұлама"-Aqtaban Shuburyndy Alqaköl Sulama. After his Death the three Jüzes were basically separate entity with a separate Khans. And it prompted the Khans of each Jüz to strife for supremacy, in order to become the only Kazakh Khan. It was the call for Russian suzerainty from the Khan of Lesser Jüz (The territories Western Kazakhstan) Abulkhayr, that set the foundation for early Russian involvement with the Kazakh Khanate. He sent an official diplomatic mission to Saints Petersburg in 1730, and in 1731 he pledged his allegiance to the Russian Empire. This was done in order to gain Russian assistance in fighting the Zhungar threat and least officially, and in order to help him in becoming the Khan of Kazakh Khanate. However later this turned against him. This event is regarded as the beginning of Russian Imperialism in Central Asia in Kazakh historiography.
If we somehow avoid the feudal disintegration of the Khanate, we can see it turning into protectorate instead of a colony of Kazakhstan. Death of Abülkhayr at the hands of Zhungars in earlier battles may postpone actual Russian involvement with Kazakhs, as it was his initiative that lead Russian to be involved in Kazakhstan so early. Central Asia until the second part of 19th century was not that important for Russian foreign policy and imperialism, and the large groups Russian settlers only start to move here after the Emancipation of Serfs. Maybe if we make the Tzardom of Russia more invested in European affairs and the settlement of Siberia that they were already were, then would be less willing to spend resources in the Steppe at least in the 18th century. The Kazakh Khanate was also a Elective Monarchy, thus if the succession would be changed into hereditary, it may make the Khanate itself more stable, because otherwise all Genghizid Sultans had rights to be elected a Khan. In Kazakh Khanate a Sultan was a position below a Khan. With the eventual fall of Zhungars and the Qing expansion into the Central Asia, the prudent khan balance between Qing and Russia, as the Khan Abylai(1771-1781) done. Thus, it could become some sort of a buffer between those powers or a protectorate, instead of vassal and survive to present day, becoming a sovereign state and maybe a constitutional monarchy of some sorts, with Küriltay as its legislative body. The Kazakh Khanate unlike its some of its predecessors, was a state that valued oratory skills and council, with the tradition of people's judges Biys, who functioned as both administrators and judges in smaller administrative divisions of the Khanate. They also provided Khan with council, however depending on a Khan he could favour different base of power. Khan Abülkhayr favoured the military elite of Batyrs to Biy's for example. I apologise if so of my ideas are convoluted or confusing.