AHC: Have the Germans win in the East but lose in the West
- Thread starter metra
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The US doesn't join and the entente fail to break german lines, so there is an status quo in the west and Germany keeps all their gains in the east
They lost likely lose all their overseas territories
If you can get Japan to launch an all-out assault on Russia at the right moment, you can stop the Soviets from getting Lend-Lease Aid through the ports of Vladivostok. Getting Japan to act in the necessary manner at just the right time would be tricky though.
Most plausible I guess would be something like this:
Germany has a better Barbarossa. Historically I think they had something like 90-95th percentile luck in Summer 1941 with their attack. Moving that up to 96th to 99th percentile, they manage to take Leningrad early, which pisses Hitler off because he wanted to starve and liquidate its population. But a German commander gets lucky and uses initiative. Zhukov getting killed here in transit is probably helpful, the Soviets scuttle their fleet (an order Zhukov overrode if I recall). This allows the Germans to improve their supply situation in general. They do a little better in the south, requiring less help from Army group Center. The Center goes a little better than historically. They don't take Moscow, but they're close and better prepared for the 1941 Winter. 1941 winter was particularly nasty if I recall too, maybe it gets degraded to just an 'average' Russian winter (which is still plenty bad).
In 1942, Case Blue goes better. Northern route Lend Lease has been substantially degraded and Southern route really isn't up to speed yet. Germany plans to cut the Volga at Stalingrad while only using modest forces to head towards Baku. Their air force is directed to attack those oil fields and help deny that oil to the USSR. Less resources are used in African theater, especially oil. The general staff puts every effort to exploiting the oil that is actually available to them now and puts availability of Russian oil from Baku at 1943 at the earliest. In the fall of 1942, the USSR peaces out or gets couped and then peaces out, facing serious guns versus butter problems that they didn't have historically. They were able to mobilize more because they got food and industrial goods and stuff that they otherwise would have had to mobilize less to get.
From here the hard part is getting Germany to lose in the West. It's not that the US and the UK couldn't win. They have plenty of population and plenty of resources. It's that they, particularly the US, don't likely have the casualty budget to do so. There doesn't exist unlimited will in the US for a war against Germany. Likely what happens is Japan gets plowed under and a peace arrangement gets made with Germany. The US probably isn't willing to suffer 3-4 Million casualties to free continental Europe.
Germany has a better Barbarossa. Historically I think they had something like 90-95th percentile luck in Summer 1941 with their attack. Moving that up to 96th to 99th percentile, they manage to take Leningrad early, which pisses Hitler off because he wanted to starve and liquidate its population. But a German commander gets lucky and uses initiative. Zhukov getting killed here in transit is probably helpful, the Soviets scuttle their fleet (an order Zhukov overrode if I recall). This allows the Germans to improve their supply situation in general. They do a little better in the south, requiring less help from Army group Center. The Center goes a little better than historically. They don't take Moscow, but they're close and better prepared for the 1941 Winter. 1941 winter was particularly nasty if I recall too, maybe it gets degraded to just an 'average' Russian winter (which is still plenty bad).
In 1942, Case Blue goes better. Northern route Lend Lease has been substantially degraded and Southern route really isn't up to speed yet. Germany plans to cut the Volga at Stalingrad while only using modest forces to head towards Baku. Their air force is directed to attack those oil fields and help deny that oil to the USSR. Less resources are used in African theater, especially oil. The general staff puts every effort to exploiting the oil that is actually available to them now and puts availability of Russian oil from Baku at 1943 at the earliest. In the fall of 1942, the USSR peaces out or gets couped and then peaces out, facing serious guns versus butter problems that they didn't have historically. They were able to mobilize more because they got food and industrial goods and stuff that they otherwise would have had to mobilize less to get.
From here the hard part is getting Germany to lose in the West. It's not that the US and the UK couldn't win. They have plenty of population and plenty of resources. It's that they, particularly the US, don't likely have the casualty budget to do so. There doesn't exist unlimited will in the US for a war against Germany. Likely what happens is Japan gets plowed under and a peace arrangement gets made with Germany. The US probably isn't willing to suffer 3-4 Million casualties to free continental Europe.
How about Germany trashed the Soviet Union as you said but nuke development goes as OTL in the United States? So Germany won in the east only for the Americans and British to rain nukes on their cities in the aftermath.
You can't really 'rain' nukes until sometime in 47 or so, and it can be pretty hard to get air supremacy over a Germany that has the kind of resources they'd have at that time.
While an annoying Japanese attack on USSR is credible, a successful one requires cooperation and planning between Japanese armed forces that is hard to credit. Plus a reason why the poorly mechanised Japanese forces will defeat the Soviet forces. It's not like the Soviet forces need T34s to pretty much wipe out any Japanese attack - BT7s will do the job very well, and even BT2s and BT5s are good enough.
Years ago a friend did a simple graph of German losses 1941-1942 when they were winning. Extrapolating those losses into 1943 with continued offensives & more combat concentrated in the east shows German military crippled in latter 1943/ Even if they cripple the Red Army as well & drive it out of Europe.
I've never revisited that analysis to try to prove or disprove it. But, assuming it does fall out that way, with the USSR effectively eliminated from Europe & incapable of significant counter offensives in the next 3-4 years, but at the cost of the Wehrmacht severely damaged, Italy dropping out of the war, and greater loss of strategic points in the west for 1943. Then a combination of Allied logistics, airpower, improving experience, ect gets the allies to a victory.
Groves reported in 1944 the production capability for Plutonium bombs was aimed at 36 combat capable devices in 1946. Assorted bits of reality in building the production facilities at Haniford probably reduced that, but we can never be certain since production was halted September 1945 to rework the reactors to improve efficiency and correct construction mistakes. Rhodes in 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb' indicated one core was enroute to Titian island in August 1945, three more cores were under construction at Los Alamos, or the Plutonium readied at Haniford & Plutonium for a fifth core available in November. So perhaps five more Fat Man devices could be delivered September - December. Rhodes goes on the estimate a low ball figure of eighteen Fat Man devices could have been built & used in 1946. So, at the low end 26 nukes on Germany 1945 - 1946 if the two used against Japan are used against Germany instead. Conversely if any problems at Haniford are resolved then 30, 35, or 40 might have been in play. So I guess it depends on your definition of "Rain".
I've never revisited that analysis to try to prove or disprove it. But, assuming it does fall out that way, with the USSR effectively eliminated from Europe & incapable of significant counter offensives in the next 3-4 years, but at the cost of the Wehrmacht severely damaged, Italy dropping out of the war, and greater loss of strategic points in the west for 1943. Then a combination of Allied logistics, airpower, improving experience, ect gets the allies to a victory.
Groves reported in 1944 the production capability for Plutonium bombs was aimed at 36 combat capable devices in 1946. Assorted bits of reality in building the production facilities at Haniford probably reduced that, but we can never be certain since production was halted September 1945 to rework the reactors to improve efficiency and correct construction mistakes. Rhodes in 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb' indicated one core was enroute to Titian island in August 1945, three more cores were under construction at Los Alamos, or the Plutonium readied at Haniford & Plutonium for a fifth core available in November. So perhaps five more Fat Man devices could be delivered September - December. Rhodes goes on the estimate a low ball figure of eighteen Fat Man devices could have been built & used in 1946. So, at the low end 26 nukes on Germany 1945 - 1946 if the two used against Japan are used against Germany instead. Conversely if any problems at Haniford are resolved then 30, 35, or 40 might have been in play. So I guess it depends on your definition of "Rain".
That is a long term effect. The Trans Pacific route was nearly shut down in latter 1941 & most of the Soviet cargo fleet transferred to the Persian or northern routes. It was gradually ramped back up 1942-43, with 80% of the cargo sent via the Far East ports taken in after mid 1943.
This topic has been beaten to death, resurrected and then beaten to death a dozen times more. Here are threads where the matter was discussed in detail. With the USSR knocked out of the war at Moscow in 1941 or Stalingrad in 1942 the WAllies could plausibly defeat the Reich as long as their political will remains intact but it would take much longer than IOTL and be extremely difficult, bloody and costly. The real question is how likely is it that the WAllies will have the political will and public support to defeat the Greater Germanic Reich right after defeating Imperial Japan (most likely through bombing and blockade rather than a ground invasion).
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Barbarossa starts in mid-May instead of late June.
Moscow falls in November 1941 but is recaptured in January 1942, the effort to do so and supply drain weakens Leningrad enough for it to fall in May 1942.
With Leningrad fallen, the Germans cut off Murmansk as a supply route into the USSR and redeploy troops to help take Stalingrad in September 1942 and retake central Moscow in October 1942.
Soviet army forces fight fiercely for control of the capital during the winter but slowly lose to a reinvigorated and now-fuelled German war machine.
By July 1943 the Red Army is falling back to the Urals - a peace treaty finalized that October spares Soviet Asia but leaves European Russia in the hands of the Germans.
Germany relocates much of its industry to northern Russia away from Allied bombers and gains 'inspiration' from various Soviet and loaned Allied equipment, including the SVT-40, T-34, and Pe-8
D-day proceeds as scheduled though progress in Italy and Southern France is much slower, eventually Italy becomes a way to tie down German troops as the breakout from Normandy and Provence face more numerous and better-equipped German forces.
German forces slowly recede across France and Central Italy while Yugoslavia largely frees itself by year's end. Keeping troops on the Urals border in case of trouble with Soviet Siberia, where a bitter Stalin is certainly rebuilding his army, Germany still sinks over half its army into Russia for defense and occupation.
Berlin falls in early 1946 but a rump German state holds out in former Poland, the Baltic States, and Soviet Europe. Only with the fall of St. Petersburg in 1947 does organized German resistance end, many Nazis fleeing to Finland as the Allies parcel out technogical achievements from the Type XXXV Uboat prototypes to the Stg46/Gerat-06(H) rifle to the Z6 computer and A9/A10 missile system et al.
Germany manages to send a man into space on a suborbital reconaissance mission in late 1946 via the Sagner Silverbird, unfortunately due to insufficient heat shielding he slowly cooks alive over Hawaii and the Eastern Pacific on re-entry. They also achieve development of a prototype integrated circuit as well as a robust synthetic polymer/oil industry.
European Russia is returned to the Soviet Union, who invaded in mid-1946, only after the Allies have picked the country clean for any advanced technology. The Iron Curtain excludes the satellite states and Eastern Europe with the US and European Community beginning a cold war less than a decade later.
Moscow falls in November 1941 but is recaptured in January 1942, the effort to do so and supply drain weakens Leningrad enough for it to fall in May 1942.
With Leningrad fallen, the Germans cut off Murmansk as a supply route into the USSR and redeploy troops to help take Stalingrad in September 1942 and retake central Moscow in October 1942.
Soviet army forces fight fiercely for control of the capital during the winter but slowly lose to a reinvigorated and now-fuelled German war machine.
By July 1943 the Red Army is falling back to the Urals - a peace treaty finalized that October spares Soviet Asia but leaves European Russia in the hands of the Germans.
Germany relocates much of its industry to northern Russia away from Allied bombers and gains 'inspiration' from various Soviet and loaned Allied equipment, including the SVT-40, T-34, and Pe-8
D-day proceeds as scheduled though progress in Italy and Southern France is much slower, eventually Italy becomes a way to tie down German troops as the breakout from Normandy and Provence face more numerous and better-equipped German forces.
German forces slowly recede across France and Central Italy while Yugoslavia largely frees itself by year's end. Keeping troops on the Urals border in case of trouble with Soviet Siberia, where a bitter Stalin is certainly rebuilding his army, Germany still sinks over half its army into Russia for defense and occupation.
Berlin falls in early 1946 but a rump German state holds out in former Poland, the Baltic States, and Soviet Europe. Only with the fall of St. Petersburg in 1947 does organized German resistance end, many Nazis fleeing to Finland as the Allies parcel out technogical achievements from the Type XXXV Uboat prototypes to the Stg46/Gerat-06(H) rifle to the Z6 computer and A9/A10 missile system et al.
Germany manages to send a man into space on a suborbital reconaissance mission in late 1946 via the Sagner Silverbird, unfortunately due to insufficient heat shielding he slowly cooks alive over Hawaii and the Eastern Pacific on re-entry. They also achieve development of a prototype integrated circuit as well as a robust synthetic polymer/oil industry.
European Russia is returned to the Soviet Union, who invaded in mid-1946, only after the Allies have picked the country clean for any advanced technology. The Iron Curtain excludes the satellite states and Eastern Europe with the US and European Community beginning a cold war less than a decade later.
The UK and France let Hitler take Poland and let the Nazis attack the USSR, and Barbarossa goes better then in OTL.
In short, Barbarossa wears itself out in the mud. When the weather improves in June it faces increasing resistance by hastily reorganised Soviet forces.
When the German offensive stalls in late 41, Soviets have suffered high combat casualties but few large POW hauls are taken because German attrition, mud-related vehicle wear and fuel shortage hinder encirclements.
Fall Blau's 1942 objectives of reaching Moscow, fully besieging Leningrad and securing a launch point for the 1943 attack on Caucasian oilfields are frustrated by large but poorly coordinated Soviet attacks which are often strongly supported by T34s ( plus Lend lease tanks in the north).
In later years, Alt-history discussions will wonder if delaying Barbarossa until the mud had dried out would have allowed mass encirclements before the Soviet forces could regroup, since this would have prevented the spoiling attacks in 1941 and 1942. Fierce debates rage on whether a faster advance could have threatened the main armaments factories west of the Urals, leading to complete collapse in 1942.
What guarantees the T-34 still goes into production if Germany invades in May 1940? When war broke out in OTL the SVT-40 went to the back burner in favor of Mosin-Nagant rifles. Only in May 1940 did the T-34 complete its 1200 mile trip from Kharkov to Moscow and there were still those trying to push for more tanks of older design or wait for a more refined design. A USSR waiting on a T34-M or laden with gasoline-based T-26s instead is still in deep trouble.
If invading in 1940, the German forces are down tens of thousands of trucks they took from France and also don't have the 8,000 abandoned BEF vehicles. Their armoured forces still use Panzer 2 as a front line tank, and have a lot of Panzer 1 still making up the numbers. They'll be getting a few Panzer 3 with short 50mm just in time, and the PaK should be ready in a year.
It doesn't sound promising, but the most important factor is likely to be what state the Soviet army is in - still based on the Stalin line? Purged? Reorganising or about to reorganise?
I still can't see it going any better than I'd described.