Your challenge is to create a plausible POD where Germany, much like in WW1, wins against Russia in the East but loses in the West.
The US doesn't join and the entente fail to break german lines, so there is an status quo in the west and Germany keeps all their gains in the eastYour challenge is to create a plausible POD where Germany, much like in WW1, wins against Russia in the East but loses in the West.
From here the hard part is getting Germany to lose in the West. It's not that the US and the UK couldn't win. They have plenty of population and plenty of resources. It's that they, particularly the US, don't likely have the casualty budget to do so. There doesn't exist unlimited will in the US for a war against Germany. Likely what happens is Japan gets plowed under and a peace arrangement gets made with Germany. The US probably isn't willing to suffer 3-4 Million casualties to free continental Europe.
You can't really 'rain' nukes until sometime in 47 or so, and it can be pretty hard to get air supremacy over a Germany that has the kind of resources they'd have at that time.How about Germany trashed the Soviet Union as you said but nuke development goes as OTL in the United States? So Germany won in the east only for the Americans and British to rain nukes on their cities in the aftermath.
... You can't really 'rain' nukes until sometime in 47 or so, ...
If you can get Japan to launch an all-out assault on Russia at the right moment, you can stop the Soviets from getting Lend-Lease Aid through the ports of Vladivostok. Getting Japan to act in the necessary manner at just the right time would be tricky though.
In short, Barbarossa wears itself out in the mud. When the weather improves in June it faces increasing resistance by hastily reorganised Soviet forces.Barbarossa starts in mid-May instead of late June.
In short, Barbarossa wears itself out in the mud. When the weather improves in June it faces increasing resistance by hastily reorganised Soviet forces.
When the German offensive stalls in late 41, Soviets have suffered high combat casualties but few large POW hauls are taken because German attrition, mud-related vehicle wear and fuel shortage hinder encirclements.
Fall Blau's 1942 objectives of reaching Moscow, fully besieging Leningrad and securing a launch point for the 1943 attack on Caucasian oilfields are frustrated by large but poorly coordinated Soviet attacks which are often strongly supported by T34s ( plus Lend lease tanks in the north).
In later years, Alt-history discussions will wonder if delaying Barbarossa until the mud had dried out would have allowed mass encirclements before the Soviet forces could regroup, since this would have prevented the spoiling attacks in 1941 and 1942. Fierce debates rage on whether a faster advance could have threatened the main armaments factories west of the Urals, leading to complete collapse in 1942.
If invading in 1940, the German forces are down tens of thousands of trucks they took from France and also don't have the 8,000 abandoned BEF vehicles. Their armoured forces still use Panzer 2 as a front line tank, and have a lot of Panzer 1 still making up the numbers. They'll be getting a few Panzer 3 with short 50mm just in time, and the PaK should be ready in a year.What guarantees the T-34 still goes into production if Germany invades in May 1940? When war broke out in OTL the SVT-40 went to the back burner in favor of Mosin-Nagant rifles. Only in May 1940 did the T-34 complete its 1200 mile trip from Kharkov to Moscow and there were still those trying to push for more tanks of older design or wait for a more refined design. A USSR waiting on a T34-M or laden with gasoline-based T-26s instead is still in deep trouble.