AHC have Spain replace France as a power

Your objective is to have Spain be more of a power than France by 2010

being more specific, Spain must have either a higher GDP or HDI than France

To make things more challenging, the PoD is 1965, and you are not allowed to "nerf" France, like "Simple, France falls into civil war". I choosed this date because it is in the middle of the spanish miracle and it gives you time to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis (when Spain was the 9th largest economy of the world)

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Given that France has been a Great Power for centuries, and Spain hasn't; that France was an early adopter in the Industrial Revolution, and Spain wasn't; that Spain was a dictatorship; that France's population is about half again Spain's; given all those facts, this is really, really hard. Oh, and France has much better agricultural land.

So... Franco has a brainstorm and sets up Economic Incentive zones (basically trying to emulate Singapore and Hong Kong), and jump starts at least portions of the Spanish economy. Meanwhile, he starts allowing democracy (if only at a local level to start with), and with the promise of a full transition to democracy, negotiates a trade agreement with the EEC. (Probably joining EFTA, or equivalent, rather than the EEC itself to start with). Meanwhile, the Spanish government negotiates free trade agreements with several large nations in the Americas (starting probably with Mexico and Argentina; but then expanding to Brazil and the US). With trade agreements with both Europe and the Americas, Spain becomes the conduit for transatlantic trade and finance, rivalling (although in a different sphere), the function of the UK.

Meanwhile, the increasingly democratic governments manage to avoid the pitfalls of both over-regulation and under-regulation, and labour and industry work smoothly together. (Yeah, OK, so maybe this is a total pipedream).

By 2016 the Bolsa is the largest stock exchange on the Continent, behind only London in Europe, and Spanish ports are the transshipment / entry points for many of the goots entering Europe (second only to Rotterdam, say).

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Close to ASB, but perhaps not there.
 
France-screw is the easier way to get here than a Spain-wank. If Germany decided to Carthage France, especially by killing all of the industrial, scientific, and highly-skilled folks on their way out (or if Petain took a persecutory approach to the weak, corrupted elites) then that could be a solution.
 
Your objective is to have Spain be more of a power than France by 2010

being more specific, Spain must have either a higher GDP or HDI than France

To make things more challenging, the PoD is 1965, and you are not allowed to "nerf" France, like "Simple, France falls into civil war". I choosed this date because it is in the middle of the spanish miracle and it gives you time to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis (when Spain was the 9th largest economy of the world)

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France-screw is the easier way to get here than a Spain-wank.
Yeah, but the OP disallows that easier path.
 
AFTER 1965? This is impossible. You can theoretically get Spain to vastly improve its economic importance post-1975, but its economy is simply not going to be larger than France's.

I don't know how a country can prepare for the upcoming oil crisis especially one lacking in native energy sources like Spain. Let's say that the Franco government was still concerned about the Spanish economy being able to be independent even though it had initiated reforms. As a result of far sighted leadership, the government enacted to have petroleum reserves (as well as other essential commodities were critical to Spanish growth) just in case. It then invested in an early form of energy efficiency to reduce the need of spending foreign currency on imported oil. It could then use the additional savings for investment in Spain. It also decided to increase power generation to be done through coal and nuclear for the same reason, thinking economic integration specifically with Europe would be better than the Arab oil. This substantially reduced the need for oil and provided a cushion once the oil crisis hit. Spain therefore weathered the crisis much better than OTL.

To compensate for this more mercantile policy, the Opus Dei technocratic reformers invested more in future value added industries. Besides becoming a source of automotive manufacture, chemicals, and textiles, electronics became important as well. The Spanish government also divested from its state owned enterprises at the height of their boom, allowing them to be further refined by market forces, and the used to proceeds for further investment in other areas. Importantly, Spain just doesn't establish industry, it modernizes the economy so that it avoids the need for reforms during the oil crisis that temporarily cripples growth for the decade following 1975.

As part of the transition planning, Franco accepted that some form of democratization was going to happen after his death, and that early entry into the EEC was essential. Or perhaps Franco had some kind of stroke, and the technocrats were able to take power from the hardline Francoists, perhaps using Juan Carlos as a figurehead. (I admit, this is a huge challenge for a realistic departure). Then when Franco dies, the democratic transition occurs much more smoothly, and because Spain is doing relatively better in the oil crisis than their economic competitors, the new government defers economic judgment to the same technocrats. Spain enters the EEC earlier - say 1980, benefits from development funds, and is able to take better advantage of EC market.

As a result, Spain continues to raise up in the economic rankings. However, I still don't think this causes it to bypass France in terms of GDP. Perhaps GDP per capita, but it'll be close.
 
As a result, Spain continues to raise up in the economic rankings. However, I still don't think this causes it to bypass France in terms of GDP. Perhaps GDP per capita, but it'll be close.

Not even with a PoD 51 years ago? I mean, just before the oil crash Spain was the 9th largest economy in the world, almost reaching the same level as France, UK and Germany
 
Not even with a PoD 51 years ago? I mean, just before the oil crash Spain was the 9th largest economy in the world, almost reaching the same level as France, UK and Germany

Spain used to be 9th, now it is like 14th. France is still 6th. Some of Spain's loss in ranking is only because other countries with far larger populations finally bypassed it (China, South Korea and Brazil) so it's decline in ranking is really not as bad as it looks compared to the old G7 + Russia. But France still has an economy about double that of Spain ($2.4 trillion to $1.2 trillion) and a larger population (65 million to 45 million). So Spain not only has to reach France's GDP per capita, it has to exceed it by about 50% if its GDP is to surpass France.

Spain can increase its economic growth from OTL, but it can only keep growing at extremely high rates for a limited time. Spain used to have the second highest growth behind Japan, but even Japan's growth slowed eventually. Just as China's growth is beginning to slow as did all the Asian Tigers and other economic miracles of the NIEs once they hit a certain level. High growth is only possible when you first industrializing and taking care of the easy productivity growth. The easy growth years for Spain can't last much longer once it hits middle/high income, even if it outperforms the French economy, it won't be by much after the mid-eighties. Eventually the extra one percent a year will add up, but it is going to take a long time to surpass total GDP.

I also dispute that Spain's economy in 1975 was "almost reaching the same level as France, UK, and Germany." A 9th ranking still puts it below Italy and Canada. A "super Spain" can pass Canada (with only 35 million), perhaps even Italy (which has around 60 million people), in total GDP by 2010, but I don't see it bypassing France. France is growing too during this time from a much higher base, and it enjoys one of the world's most productive work forces.

Outside the decade of 1975-1986, Spanish economic growth wasn't bad. It really picked up in the 1990s and boomed in the 2000s before the 2008 crash. It briefly passed Italy's per capita GDP at one point. The only real era of major improvement we can do is in the decade between Franco's death and EEC entry when a combination of the oil crisis, structural economic reform, and a government that prioritized political stability over economic growth lead to a period of overall stagnation of growth. Fixing that doesn't lead Spain to overcome France in 50 years.
 
Spain used to be 9th, now it is like 14th. France is still 6th. Some of Spain's loss in ranking is only because other countries with far larger populations finally bypassed it (China, South Korea and Brazil) so it's decline in ranking is really not as bad as it looks compared to the old G7 + Russia. But France still has an economy about double that of Spain ($2.4 trillion to $1.2 trillion) and a larger population (65 million to 45 million). So Spain not only has to reach France's GDP per capita, it has to exceed it by about 50% if its GDP is to surpass France.

Spain can increase its economic growth from OTL, but it can only keep growing at extremely high rates for a limited time. Spain used to have the second highest growth behind Japan, but even Japan's growth slowed eventually. Just as China's growth is beginning to slow as did all the Asian Tigers and other economic miracles of the NIEs once they hit a certain level. High growth is only possible when you first industrializing and taking care of the easy productivity growth. The easy growth years for Spain can't last much longer once it hits middle/high income, even if it outperforms the French economy, it won't be by much after the mid-eighties. Eventually the extra one percent a year will add up, but it is going to take a long time to surpass total GDP.

I also dispute that Spain's economy in 1975 was "almost reaching the same level as France, UK, and Germany." A 9th ranking still puts it below Italy and Canada. A "super Spain" can pass Canada (with only 35 million), perhaps even Italy (which has around 60 million people), in total GDP by 2010, but I don't see it bypassing France. France is growing too during this time from a much higher base, and it enjoys one of the world's most productive work forces.

Outside the decade of 1975-1986, Spanish economic growth wasn't bad. It really picked up in the 1990s and boomed in the 2000s before the 2008 crash. It briefly passed Italy's per capita GDP at one point. The only real era of major improvement we can do is in the decade between Franco's death and EEC entry when a combination of the oil crisis, structural economic reform, and a government that prioritized political stability over economic growth lead to a period of overall stagnation of growth. Fixing that doesn't lead Spain to overcome France in 50 years.


Ok, thank very much
 
Your objective is to have Spain be more of a power than France by 2010

being more specific, Spain must have either a higher GDP or HDI than France

To make things more challenging, the PoD is 1965, and you are not allowed to "nerf" France, like "Simple, France falls into civil war". I choosed this date because it is in the middle of the spanish miracle and it gives you time to prepare for the 1973 oil crisis (when Spain was the 9th largest economy of the world)

begin

I think first off all the reasons that led to the civil war need to go and this would require a POD in the other forum far earlier than 1900
 
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