AHC: Have Russia be more pro-west, pro-EU

[Grey Wolf]

Russia was invited into counsels it had long been excluded from. It was rebuilding an international reputation with the West.

What the problem was that it was throwing millions of its own citizens into poverty, and had no clear plan how to change this

The "oligarch" thing was not just profit-taking by jumped-up bureaucrats who found they could own huge industries. It was part of an attempted strategy to create viable large RUSSIAN-OWNED private industries that would not simply be swallowed up by the Western conglomerates.

The world would have benefitted by a far-sighted Russian leader and his team being in a joint council with a magnaminous US president, EU, etc who agreed that for the mutual benefit of the entire world, the resources of the World Bank etc would be deployed to help Russia deal with the shock of the change.

The problem is that Western [sic] global organisations like the IMF have "standards" rooted in vulture capitalism (look at Greece) and not in creating a viable mutual plan to help Russia become a member of the club.

 

[trainvoi]

How about Georgia and Ukraine never made any effort to distance away from Soviet legacy? There wouldn't any Russian aggression if both countries have friendly relations with Russia, which means the EU and the US wouldn't have anything to sanction Russia. By time, Russia would be integrated into the EU through trade and commerical links, which means Russian population would hope for pro-EU policy.

 

[Meordal]

March 10, 1995: In another gesture to Western opinion, President Boris N. Yeltsin agreed today to allow a human-rights mission from the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe to maintain a presence in the secessionist Chechnya republic with the full co-operation of the Russian authorities.

The OSCE Assistance Group to Chechnya began working in Grozny on 26 April 1995

.
Breaking news (POD)

GROZNY, June. 14 (Reuters) -- Today Chechnya experienced its first suicide bombings. At least 96 people have been killed and dozens of others injured in the Chechen capital Grozny when an unidentified bomber driving a KamAZ truck packed with one ton of explosives targeted the OSCE mission in the capital at dawn. The massive explosion completely destroyed the delegation building, collapsing it on its occupants. Other, less successful attacks in Grozny, Urus Martan and Novogroznensky agaisnt Federal forces later resulted in the government losses of 16 killed and 43 missing, according to official reports. It was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks. Chechen Republic of Ichkeria linked foreign Islamic Muhadjeens usually stage similar attacks.

....

Those ITTL attacks occur the same day as the Budyonnovsk hospital crisis (14 June to 19 June 1995), where a group of 80 to 200 Chechen separatists led by Shamil Basayev attacked the southern Russian city of Budyonnovsk. They took hostage between 1,500 and 1,800 people in city hospital. In OTL, this incident resulted in a ceasefire between Russia and Chechen separatists, and peace talks (which later failed) between Russia and the Chechens.

In OTL, the government's handling of the Budyonnovsk crisis was perceived as inept by many Russians who considered Yeltsin too weak to govern. It can be seen as the turning point that tilted Russia toward the "authoritarian" rule of President Vladimir V. Putin, now in power for two decades. At the time, Mr. Putin was an unknown municipal official in St. Petersburg, but four years later he became master of the Kremlin, propelled there by yet another Chechen war.


To be continued if you like it enough ...

 

[MUC]

When Serbia is using killing for the sake of ethnic cleansing, yeah, I want to do something.

We all despise ethnic cleansing. The only problem is that the West doesn't intervene everywhere where ethnic cleansing takes place, but rather there where the West feels it should, based on interests. Ethnic cleansing has been going on in Africa & Asia for decades and the West has only intervened a few times.

 

[Pyramus]

.
Breaking news (POD)

GROZNY, June. 14 (Reuters) -- Today Chechnya experienced its first suicide bombings. At least 96 people have been killed and dozens of others injured in the Chechen capital Grozny when an unidentified bomber driving a KamAZ truck packed with one ton of explosives targeted the OSCE mission in the capital at dawn. The massive explosion completely destroyed the delegation building, collapsing it on its occupants. Other, less successful attacks in Grozny, Urus Martan and Novogroznensky agaisnt Federal forces later resulted in the government losses of 16 killed and 43 missing, according to official reports. It was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks. Chechen Republic of Ichkeria linked foreign Islamic Muhadjeens usually stage similar attacks.

....

Those ITTL attacks occur the same day as the Budyonnovsk hospital crisis (14 June to 19 June 1995), where a group of 80 to 200 Chechen separatists led by Shamil Basayev attacked the southern Russian city of Budyonnovsk. They took hostage between 1,500 and 1,800 people in city hospital. In OTL, this incident resulted in a ceasefire between Russia and Chechen separatists, and peace talks (which later failed) between Russia and the Chechens.

To be continued if you like it enough ...

Please do continue!

 

[GeographyDude]

Considering Crimea and the whole "South Ossetia" thing, I have severe doubts that the Russians would choose trade over annexations and "publicly supported rejoining" without first significantly changing the way Russia is lead.

Basically this thread devolve in: if we give the Russia everything they want and throw everyone else to the wolfs, they will be friendly and nice.

I am emphatically not saying we give Russia everything they want. Rather, like we sometimes talk about Hubert Humphrey seeming to possess an ability to finesse a weaker hand [or where we don’t choose to go all in prematurely], there are ways of getting the odds in our favor. And part of the challenge of AH is to figure out some of these ways.

And then, to some extent Russian citizens chose “strong man” leadership because things weren’t going that well on the economic development front.

 

[History Learner]

Sure, we can let them clean of different people the zone they want...but no thanks, i prefer how we have deal with that in OTL, not perfect sure but beat look the other way by a lot

Regarding no eastern european nations in NATO...it was them begging to enter the alliance because, call them stupid but they thought that having just escaped the warm embrace of mother russia they can wait a century or more to get it again and enter NATO and the EU was the best method to safeguard their independence.

Basically this thread devolve in: if we give the Russia everything they want and throw everyone else to the wolfs, they will be friendly and nice.

Pretty much. It's basically a conflict between the Realist School of Foreign Policy and those who advocate the Liberalist one.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Make China scarier.

 

[lukedalton]

Pretty much. It's basically a conflict between the Realist School of Foreign Policy and those who advocate the Liberalist one.

Usually Realism is just an excuse for 'eat them first before me' way of thinking and frankly this kind of approach don't have that much great history of success, on the contrary

 

[GeographyDude]

We all despise ethnic cleansing. The only problem is that the West doesn't intervene everywhere where ethnic cleansing takes place, but rather there where the West feels it should, based on interests. Ethnic cleansing has been going on in Africa & Asia for decades and the West has only intervened a few times.

It's even worse than that, for during the cold war we gave passes to our "allies." And I think we're probably doing the same thing now in the war on terror, sadly so, and counter-productively so.

The only thing I can say is let's find the positive examples, and build from there.

 

[sampleswift]

A few threads ago someone said Nemtsov post-Yeltsin would be a good start. Yeltsin not firing on the Duma in 1993 would also have helped (also a better Constitution than the 1993/94 one that wasn't effective).

 

[sirjackalot]

Make China scarier.

China has gotten more and more powerful and "scary" IOTL yet it hasn't really forced Russia to ally themselves more with their European brethren

 

[Pyramus]

China has gotten more and more powerful and "scary" IOTL yet it hasn't really forced Russia to ally themselves more with their European brethren

Not scary in the sense of “increasing economic and geopolitical clout”, scary in the sense of “active threat to the territorial integrity of Russia.”
Like a China where the Cultural Revolution never ended, and it turned into giant North Korea.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

China has gotten more and more powerful and "scary" IOTL yet it hasn't really forced Russia to ally themselves more with their European brethren

Not scary in the sense of “increasing economic and geopolitical clout”, scary in the sense of “active threat to the territorial integrity of Russia.”
Like a China where the Cultural Revolution never ended, and it turned into giant North Korea.

I was thinking more "China that wants to revise the unequal Treaties of Aigun and Peking", or even just one that low key encourages illegal immigration to the Russian Far East.

Russia is very conscious about its demographic weakness in the east, OTL Beijing has done pretty well everything it can to direct Chinese people looking for opportunity to literally anywhere that isn't Russia's Asiatic holdings. In a world where Beijing instead feeds into those fears, Russia will partner with anyone to ensure that China doesn't Texas effect away Russia's pacific coastline.

 

[Don Corleone]

Vladimir the Great chooses Catholicism instead of Orthodoxy.

 

[Falk]

Russia gets hit with the prosperity it was promised in exchange for giving up communism. Also find a way to get rid of Jeffrey Sachs. The man seems to be a quack economist.

 

[The Ranger]

Have Nato not go West of the former East German border. That by itself will make Russia dislike the West a bit less.

 

[M79]

1987 stock market crash is much worse, USSR wins cold war, EU is a soviet puppet that Moscow supports

 

[Sam R.]

You'd need a very different West for that to happen.

RSF (PCF) and RSI (PCI) drip feed the USSR and thus the RSFSR.