AHC: Have NATO dissolved

Conditions:

With a PoD after the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949, NATO must no longer exist by the present day.
Bonus points if it a foreign power that dissolves the alliance.
 
The Russians follow up Crimea with a general invasion of NATO.
The US withdraws behind the Atlantic, the UK the Channel and the French the Rhine.

NATO is already more of a club OTL then a military alliance since 1994.
 
The Russians follow up Crimea with a general invasion of NATO.
The US withdraws behind the Atlantic, the UK the Channel and the French the Rhine.

NATO is already more of a club OTL then a military alliance since 1994.
Unless they are willing to use nukes or to bombard cities they are going to have some issues. And if they invade anyplace there will be a near immediate coming together of a block of countries. I can see the Scandinavians giving plenty of support to the Finns (though the Russians probably wouldn't invade the Nordic countries, having sfixed most of their territorial disputed a decade back when they and the Norwegians divided a disputed area at see, withnthe Norwegians also helping out with their expertise at drilling at sea. Ahhh right, Sweden and Finland are not in NATO. Yah, the Russians would likely be glad to have a Nordic bloc form, as it means Norway is no longer in NATO. They would have preferred it in the Cold War, though. Right now it does the Russians little economic good to start invading westward into NATO. It would simply get Poland, the Baltics, and perhaps Germany getting an alliance with Ukraine. Belarus will be somewhat hostile to all this as well, as what good will things do them if they are surrounded on all sides by Russia? And Putin will have domestic trouble if he tries to invade areas without too many Russians in them or without some sort of provocation. So maybe pressure is put on Latvia or Estonia in some areas, but the Russians might prefer their groups to be given special treatment.

Ahhh, and the European Union likely becomes a military alliance. Assuming no member votes against it.
 
Would the Suez Crisis be an opportunity for this? More opinionated leadership in the UK and France feel ‘stabbed in the back’ by the US that they both pick up their toys and go home. This takes out two of the most powerful members at the time immediately. With a follow up campaign pushing for a ‘European defensive pact’ to replace NATO in combination with an anti-American publicity campaign, you might peal off the Benelux countries and others, leading to a collapse of what’s left by 1960.
 
Any external (Russian) pressure or attack on NATO would have strengthened the alliance. Same would be the case for problems in Germany, whether they were entirely internal or inspired from Moscow.

After all, the whole point of the alliance was "to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down"

Dissolution of NATO would have to come from within NATO. In particular, most probably the UK would have to lead the effort to end the alliance.

So, if I were to write a novel that included the dissolution of NATO, I would describe a radical socialist/communist rise to power in London, which in the initial phases would have to be through the electoral process. Given the economic and social conditions in the major cities of the UK in the years following the end of WWII, the rise of the radical left would not have been impossible.
 

Nick P

Donor
The liberal policies of the 1960s and 70s, combined with crop failures and leaks of evidence showing that the supposed Soviet production figures were an utter sham lead to public dissatisfaction with the leadership. In the late 1970s hunger and fuel crises create a series of major protests (said, but not proven, to be CIA funded) in the Baltic states and the outlying Asian states which weaken the Communist leadership.

Seeing the internal turmoil causing major worries for the Soviet military commanders NATO actually takes their foot OFF the gas, sending troops on leave and visibly relaxing border guards. Western politicians make a number of statements to the effect of "We don't want to invade the huge area that is Russia - look at Hitler and Napoleon, they failed". This allows the Kremlin to concentrate on their own internal coups and crushing of rebellion. This infighting distracts the Politburo from the supposed but clearly far weaker threat posed by NATO countries.
The generals seize their chances and serious tank and aerial battles occur around the Russian cities and in the outlying states of the Union. NATO make it clear that "what happens in Russia is a Russian problem. If it overspills your borders then EVERYONE gets hurt." U-2 and satellite overflights show a security reinforcement around ICBM sites while it is seen that the short-range mobile missiles are locked into their barracks. Brixmis missions in East Germany and spies in Poland and Romania reveal that several Soviet divisions and Red Air Force squadrons are returning home.

Taking advantage of the troubles in the Soviet Union, pro-capitalist parties in the the Warsaw Pact nations take the opportunity to hold their own protests. Faced with crippling strikes and the lack of desire by their own troops to crush the protesters in the major cities, the Polish government looks to hold more open elections backed up with the promise of supplies of foodstuffs and higher trade deals from the West. Warm and friendly overtures from Bonn to East Berlin lead to discussions over Germany reforming as a neutral buffer state between East and West.

The old argument in Czechoslovakia is ignited and the demand for breaking into two smaller states is widely publicised. Within 3 years they carry out an amicable split.

Ten years later and the USSR has broken up into a far looser union. Talks on scrapping ICBMs are going well with rich offers of nukes for oil and grain from the US. The Warsaw Pact is no more than a military training program between some of the former members.

NATO has faded away and it is replaced by a European Union Defence Agreement.

I know it's a bit utopian and some will say unlikely, but with the right words and distractions I say it's not impossible.
 
So, if I were to write a novel that included the dissolution of NATO, I would describe a radical socialist/communist rise to power in London, which in the initial phases would have to be through the electoral process. Given the economic and social conditions in the major cities of the UK in the years following the end of WWII, the rise of the radical left would not have been impossible.

Well, in all honestly the current right/populist batch of politicians is also against NATO or international cooperation in general, so i will ditch the 'radical left' cliche and go for them. IMVHO the better option is with the German reunification and the election of an isolationist US president
 
Seeing as its raison d'etre no longer existed, NATO gets disbanded in 1992.

(Honestly, the immediate post-Cold War era is the time to scrap NATO. Hell, have it as part of a massive demilitarisation deal in Europe).
 
Conditions:

With a PoD after the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949, NATO must no longer exist by the present day.
Bonus points if it a foreign power that dissolves the alliance.

Russia Dissolves into multiple states after a quasi civil war following the death of Michael Gorbachev at the hands of extreme nationalists in 1991 who had sought to limit his policy of moving the former Soviet Union towards Social Democracy

The EU gobbles up the fractured Eastern Europe nations using a very large carrot and small stick approch and during the Peace Dividend (1991 - 1999) the EU stands up a Eurocentric army corps and Airforce as it moves closer to Federation and with no threat form Russia (and the falling out between the USA and Europe following the Dirty bomb attack) NATO is formally dissolved in 2005 with Britain, USA, Canada, Australia and NZ forming the USAUKCANAUSNZ agreement based on the older 5 Eyes/Atlantic Charter which becomes a more formal organisation when the UK finally 'divorces' itself from the EU in 2015 (Driven by general dissasifaction regarding the Federarilisation of the EU among the British people among other real and imagined issues).

The Dirty bomb attack on New york in 2001 by Jihadists that started the 'oil wars' in and around the Persian gulf and the later Indonisian Intervention resulted in a falling out between the 'Federal European' nations (who mostly refused to support the USA) and the 5 Eye nations and the USA effectively pulled out of Europe by 2005 (retaining bases and forces only in the UK).

There was also dissasitfaction in the late 90s regarding the way in which the Balkan Genocides were handled by a mostly European UN force - with lots of recriminations regarding the breakdown of trust between the then NATO powers and the eventual 'ADHD' strategy that ultimately failed to deal with the issue.
 
The Russians follow up Crimea with a general invasion of NATO.
The US withdraws behind the Atlantic, the UK the Channel and the French the Rhine.

NATO is already more of a club OTL then a military alliance since 1994.

In 2014? There’s no seven days to the Rhine path. Germany can slow down Russia on its own, and if Russia started seriously mobilizing, the US would start scaling up as well. Most of the NATO countries were below the 2% defense spending/GDP level, but the Russian army isn’t the early 1980s Soviet Army.

On a political level, Obama can’t pull out of Europe and Cameron can’t pull across the channel.

Russia can’t push the US off the continent before it’s fully mobilized, and has almost none of the early 1980s potiential to win the sea war and stop the US from getting supply lines set up.
 
Seeing as its raison d'etre no longer existed, NATO gets disbanded in 1992.

(Honestly, the immediate post-Cold War era is the time to scrap NATO. Hell, have it as part of a massive demilitarisation deal in Europe).
Pat Buchanan elected in 1992 and I can see US withdrawal, effectively collapsing it.
 
Cuban Missile Crisis goes hot.

USSR and Warsaw Pact are gone, the nations of Nato all but destroyed, except the USA, lightly damaged.

USA takes over from the UN, and it's the New World Order after 1964, taking over what's left of all previous organizations like Nato
 
In 2014? There’s no seven days to the Rhine path. Germany can slow down Russia on its own, and if Russia started seriously mobilizing, the US would start scaling up as well. Most of the NATO countries were below the 2% defense spending/GDP level, but the Russian army isn’t the early 1980s Soviet Army.

On a political level, Obama can’t pull out of Europe and Cameron can’t pull across the channel.

Russia can’t push the US off the continent before it’s fully mobilized, and has almost none of the early 1980s potiential to win the sea war and stop the US from getting supply lines set up.

German military no? Is not really combat operable. The Germans never had a comparatively weaker armed forces since they were a bunch of city states warring with each other.

Other European militaries and logistics would slow down the Russians though somewhere in Central Europe.
 
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A crisis where one of the key members (the US, France, [West] Germany, Britain) flinches and strikes a deal with the other side unilaterally could be enough of a crack to disintegrate the alliance.
 
Would tend to think the only realistic point would be the Suez Crisis, especially if Britain and France call the Americans bluff. After all we’ve just bailed you out in Korea and now you try to stab us in the back.
On paper the UK was still pretty powerful with 10 fleet carriers, six battleships etc 3+Armoured Divisions with Centurion tanks and an Atomic power.
Realistically there were many, on both sides of the house, who didn’t view the USSR as a serious threat to Britain’s sovereignty.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Talks on scrapping ICBMs are going well with rich offers of nukes for oil and grain from the US.
I know it's a bit utopian and some will say unlikely, but with the right words and distractions I say it's not impossible.
That’s a pretty big understatement. This is like Hitler deciding to scrap the Wehrmacht, SS, and Gestapo on September 1st, 1939, releasing the Jews and paying reparations to them, then resigning with a call for new free and fair elections.
 
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