China overtook Japan as the 2nd largest economy behind the US in 2010. What events would have had to occur whereby in 2020 Japan still holds that 2nd place spot?
AHC: Have Japan as the world's 2nd largest economy and not China
- Thread starter Mitchell Hundred
- Start date
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
....and a finish. Game, set, match. Any other cliche you choose. That's all you need. It's enough.
Tianemen Square kicks off a Chinese implosion corresponding to the fall of the USSR. Canton, Shanghai, Beijing, Taipei, Chongking, Lhasa, and Urumqi each become a capital for a different Chinese successor state with an active civil conflict that rages for about 3 years. When the dust settles, Tibet regains independence as Shanghai becomes its own very capitalist polity. Canton, Taipei, and eventually Hong Kong form a confederation every bit as industrious as Taiwan and South Korea. Beijing, left with Manchuria and northern China, morphs into a Socialist polity with capitalist tendencies somewhat like what China is today. End result - World's 7th, 4th, and 3rd largest economies are just west of the still-nearly-reigning Japan.
History Learner
Banned
In Japan, manufacturers use over 300 industrial robots per 10,000 workers compared to over 700 in South Korea; have Japan reach that same level and they would be an absolute juggernaut in international economics. Case in point is how Southeast Asia is booming thanks to their high rate of industrial robot adoption.
Interesting it's a stereotype that the Japanese are more techy and into developing robotics but it seems like that is not the case.
Yeah, I used to live in Japan and not in Tokyo. My impression is that Japan outside of Tokyo is very small-c conservative in the sense that technology is adopted relatively slowly and what not. The joke people make is Japan loving fax machines - but it's kind of true, fax machines are definitely a lot more popular in Japanese workplaces! Japan I feel is often used as a idealized/anti-idealized (extenuate the positive/negative) foil by both the right/left to basically justify their preferred policy outcomes.
It's relatively easy to increase the Japanese GDP by 10-30% if different decisions on fiscal and monetary policies had been made in the 1980's and 1990's. Preventing or having a different kind Plaza Accord in 1985 so that the Yen's value wouldn't skyrocket so much and thus inflate the economic bubble dangerously would also greatly help. The Accord was a deal between the US, the UK, Germany, France and Japan to intervene in currency markets in order to weaken the dollar, particularly against the Yen and German Mark. Americans felt that low values of those currencies gave Japanese and Germans unfair trade advantages. It did have very negative side-effects on the Japanese economy on the whole though. And posts above already point out that making the Chinese economy weaker is relatively simple.
Looking at that article, I don't see particular connection between the number of robots the nation has and its economy. There are much more important factors at work there.
I should point out though that according to the article Japan is fourth in the use of robots, ahead of the US and most of Europe sans Germany.
Looking at that article, I don't see particular connection between the number of robots the nation has and its economy. There are much more important factors at work there.
I should point out though that according to the article Japan is fourth in the use of robots, ahead of the US and most of Europe sans Germany.
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History Learner
Banned
Would dramatically boost its productivity, thus meaning it could keep an advantage in manufacturing vis-a-vis its competitors.
Perhaps 5 countries emerge with 3 in the world's top 7 economies; Uighurstan/Chinese Turkmenistan and Tibet are still independent but not the economic titans of the Social Republic of China (7th), Shanghai Federation (4th), and Confederation of Canton (3rd).
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By purchasing power parity, China is #1, so you might be asking for Japan to overtake the US, not China, for #2 spot...
Get a economic nationalist (not mentioning current politics) who pulls out of GATT and raises tariffs, and you could have the US slip badly in world standings.
Get a economic nationalist (not mentioning current politics) who pulls out of GATT and raises tariffs, and you could have the US slip badly in world standings.
I had an illuminating moment in Japan when I walked behind a flashy high tech main street and found a back alley more like something out of the 70s. The key takeaway? There are no super humans and we are ally pretty much normal.
The country you are looking for is called Hatsunia. If only countries like Japan were less conservative and more tech-savvy.
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