AHC:Have Blanche Lincoln Survive Re-Election

[Gorrister]

Alright, Some Background, Blanche Lincoln was an Arkansas Senator until 2010, when her popularity became dead in the Water, and she lost by the largest margin in the Senate to John Boozman in 2010, which was a Republican Wave. (57.9%-37%)

Your challenge is, to have Lincoln survive Re-Election.

No Points if it's just "President McCain gets in and screws up".

Alright, any takers?

EDIT:The POD has to be after November 2004.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Alright, Some Background, Blanche Lincoln was an Arkansas Senator until 2010, when her popularity became dead in the Water, and she lost by the largest margin in the Senate to John Boozman in 2010, which was a Republican Wave. (57.9%-37%)

Your challenge is, to have Lincoln survive Re-Election.

No Points if it's just "President McCain gets in and screws up".

Alright, any takers?

Probably not possible. Demographics doomed Lincoln as much as Obamacare did.

Lincoln is from the Arkansas delta and was elected to the U.S. House from there before becoming senator. Boozman is from the Northwest (and staunchly Republican for 30 years section) part of Arkansas.

The Delta has very heavily depopulated over the last 20 years while the Northwest has enjoyed a population boom. Senate elections are statewide winner take all. Thus Lincoln had to campaign over something like 35 counties just to make contact with her core supporters and get them to turn out to vote while Boozman pretty much only had to campaign hard in 7 or 8.

This concentration of support allowed Boozman to consolidate his core support and venture into southern and central Arkansas and make heavy inroads into traditionally Democratic voting areas.

 

[Andrew T]

While trying to stay away from turning this into Chat-bait, can I ask why you'd want to save Lincoln in the first place? As far as I can tell, she had zero legislative accomplishments in her entire political career, which was essentially spent serving as a thorn in the side of the Democratic leadership in first the House and later the Senate.

 

[Gorrister]

While trying to stay away from turning this into Chat-bait, can I ask why you'd want to save Lincoln in the first place? As far as I can tell, she had zero legislative accomplishments in her entire political career, which was essentially spent serving as a thorn in the side of the Democratic leadership in first the House and later the Senate.

It's a challenge, it doesn't reflect my political views.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Well, true Lincoln was one of those politicians more famous for what she was that what she did.

For example she was one of the youngest women in Congress IIRC and the youngest woman Senator elected.

But other factors came about as well.

She was beaten by John Boozman. The younger brother of Fay Boozman who Lincoln beat in 1998 to become Senator.

In 2005, the older Boozman died in a freak accident while working on his farm which of course had generated considerable sympathy for his family. IIRC Fay Boozman's widow campaigned considerably for her younger brother in law in 2010.

And Lincoln campaigned on a basically "make no one happy" strategy. She tried hard to "run right" away from the Democrats and the Obama Admin. but this actually made her look weak and wavering and irritated the largely Obama supporters in the Delta and gained her no points in the remainder of Arkansas.

It also looked liked an act of desperation to many Arkansas voters.

Democratic Senator Mark Pryor is in great danger of losing this year for the same reason.

 

[Seleucus]

Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic primary (and thus presumably keeping Appalachia from swinging hard right) would help, though it wouldn't make up for the full margin I don't think.

 

[Andrew T]

It's a challenge, it doesn't reflect my political views.

Oh, I wasn't trying to cast aspersions at yours (or anyone's) political views; I just was wondering what could possibly be of interest about Blanche Lincoln.

 

[Gorrister]

Oh, I wasn't trying to cast aspersions at yours (or anyone's) political views; I just was wondering what could possibly be of interest about Blanche Lincoln.

Well, it's just that the margin she lost by was so huge, it was almost 20 points, it was just embarrasing.

 

[Plumber]

Easy. Hillary Clinton wins in 2008. This probably gives the Democrats extra Senate seats in Kentucky, Georgia and perhaps the Mississippi special. This means that the Republicans won't be able to filibuster anything. Arkansas has no reason to go anti-Obama or anti-Obamacare, and Lincoln wins reelection.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Easy. Hillary Clinton wins in 2008. This probably gives the Democrats extra Senate seats in Kentucky, Georgia and perhaps the Mississippi special. This means that the Republicans won't be able to filibuster anything. Arkansas has no reason to go anti-Obama or anti-Obamacare, and Lincoln wins reelection.

You assume Hillary Clinton has any coattails worth mentioning.

And Hillary Clinton upset Republicans back in that day even more than President Obama did later on.

 

[Plumber]

You assume Hillary Clinton has any coattails worth mentioning.

And Hillary Clinton upset Republicans back in that day even more than President Obama did later on.

Given that race cost Obama around 4.2% of the vote nationally, extrapolating coattail victories to the three closest Democratic losses in the South in 2008 seems like a rather safe assumption, yes.

Yes. What does that have to do with anything? Republicans aren't the people of Arkansas, who view the Clintons very differently than they view Barack Obama.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Given that race cost Obama around 4.2% of the vote nationally, extrapolating coattail victories to the three closest Democratic losses in the South in 2008 seems like a rather safe assumption, yes.

Yes. What does that have to do with anything? Republicans aren't the people of Arkansas, who view the Clintons very differently than they view Barack Obama.

Hillary Clinton is from Chicago, not Arkansas. She was never considered in the same class as Bill Clinton.

And where do you get the figure that his race cost Obama 4.2% of the vote?

I'm inclined to believe that many people or more voted FOR him because of his race.

 

[Plumber]

Hillary Clinton is from Chicago, not Arkansas. She was never considered in the same class as Bill Clinton.

A Clinton doesn't have to be in the same class as Bill, just better than the Kenyan Socialist. In Arkansas. Clinton was leading McCain in Arkansas polling. Obama did worse than Kerry. A lot worse. His presidency has finally shifted Arkansas politics significantly towards the Republicans. Hillary's wouldn't.

And where do you get the figure that his race cost Obama 4.2% of the vote?

I'm inclined to believe that many people or more voted FOR him because of his race.

Live and learn.

 

[Dayton Kitchens]

Seems to be a guy pushing an agenda

 

[Thoresby]

Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic primary (and thus presumably keeping Appalachia from swinging hard right) would help, though it wouldn't make up for the full margin I don't think.

By what definition is Arkansas in Appalachia?