With a POD after 1960, create a scenario where Apartheid South Africa, instead of the largely peaceful fall which it went through in OTL, "goes out with a bang" proverbially, ending in a bloody civil war. Bonus points if you either get nuclear weapons used in this civil war or the superpowers involved via "boots on the ground". Extra bonus points if you manage to do both.
AHC: Have Apartheid South Africa collapse in a civil war
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
Garrison
Donor
Yeah even if he died in prison of natural causes no one is going to believe it and it practically guarantees no peaceful settlement is possible.
So, how could we get nukes to fly in such a scenario and/or the superpowers involved directly, then?
Superpowers wouldn't get involved. US and UK might've occasionally liked South Africa's "anticommunism", but directly intervening in a civil war of their own making? No dice.
If its after the cold war and the white lead government starts losing badly. they might invite them to stabilize the country and lead the constriction of a new government
Which would get met with a "Yeah, no".
Post Cold War, the tiny fig leaf of "Being anti Communist" had died, meaning there's literally no need to keep them around. Or to not throw up so many sanctions they can't buy a can of beans.
South Africa has immense mineral wealth, and a South African civil war would negatively affect the world economy. The US would also not want the Soviets Union to gain control of South African resources. The US probably finds some "moderate" to support.
I'm not talking about fighting communists, I'm talking about state-building. Forming a new democratic South African government created by the United States and allies
Which would require a lengthy occupation, something not that popular in the US.
I suppose the best way to make this happen is in the run up to the 1994 elections.
A few factions stood against ANC control of the country. The Zulu nationalist Inkatha movement, led by Chief Buthelezi, were engaged in a set of battles with the ANC in KwaZulu Natal and were broadly successful in maintaining control over a good chunk of territory in the Northern and more rural central parts of the province.
At the same time, the Afrikaner Volksfront, a right wing militia, was mobilizing a large number of Afrikaners (up to 60,000 I think) under the leadership of trained ex-SADF leadership. And then you have to consider the SADF itself; nominally in allegiance to the government, but ideologically, a good many of its members weren't so happy with the way things were going.
And then, you get the issue of the Bantustan leaders, who in many cases did not want to give up power. Mangope in OTL was deposed in a coup, but had he retained power, he could have caused issues in the Northwest Province, while in Ciskei, again, it was a strike by government workers that took their leaderdown. Both of those events could have turned out quite differently.
If you don't get the Inkatha Party and the Freedom Front to run in the elections and lend them legitimacy, you have a real problem on your hands. In OTL, they did so, and things became peaceful (although, crime still spun out of control) afterwards. The new state was fragile. The SADF was about to fire a lot of people, many of which had a lot of wartime experience during the 80s and became quite adept at fighting a guerilla style war. Its likely that the AVF would have swelled under this scenario, and the Inkatha forces would have received even more clandestine support.
Add to the equation the issue of tribalism within the ANC, as the Xhosa dominated executive committee (Tambo, Mandela, and Mbeki were all Eastern Cape Xhosas, if I remember correctly). The highest ranking Zulu in the ANC for much of its post liberation history (although I'm not sure if it was the case in 1994), and arguably one of their most important symbols during the fights with Inkatha, was Jacob Zuma, who we know to be hilariously corrupt. While I don't think its likely, if he defects to Inkatha (presumably because he either listens to the council of a Chief he respects who likes Inkatha, or because one of the Indian businessmen who gives him and his family money tells him to), it could cause South Africa to fracture further on Xhosa-Zulu lines. The traditional leaders of South Africa (Chiefs and Kings) were ideologically incompatible with the Marxist leaning elements in the ANC, and it took Mandela's pragmatism to keep that issue from getting out of control. Remove him, and things could break down quite different.
So there are many ways to bring about a Civil War in South Africa in the run up to the end of Apartheid.
A few factions stood against ANC control of the country. The Zulu nationalist Inkatha movement, led by Chief Buthelezi, were engaged in a set of battles with the ANC in KwaZulu Natal and were broadly successful in maintaining control over a good chunk of territory in the Northern and more rural central parts of the province.
At the same time, the Afrikaner Volksfront, a right wing militia, was mobilizing a large number of Afrikaners (up to 60,000 I think) under the leadership of trained ex-SADF leadership. And then you have to consider the SADF itself; nominally in allegiance to the government, but ideologically, a good many of its members weren't so happy with the way things were going.
And then, you get the issue of the Bantustan leaders, who in many cases did not want to give up power. Mangope in OTL was deposed in a coup, but had he retained power, he could have caused issues in the Northwest Province, while in Ciskei, again, it was a strike by government workers that took their leaderdown. Both of those events could have turned out quite differently.
If you don't get the Inkatha Party and the Freedom Front to run in the elections and lend them legitimacy, you have a real problem on your hands. In OTL, they did so, and things became peaceful (although, crime still spun out of control) afterwards. The new state was fragile. The SADF was about to fire a lot of people, many of which had a lot of wartime experience during the 80s and became quite adept at fighting a guerilla style war. Its likely that the AVF would have swelled under this scenario, and the Inkatha forces would have received even more clandestine support.
Add to the equation the issue of tribalism within the ANC, as the Xhosa dominated executive committee (Tambo, Mandela, and Mbeki were all Eastern Cape Xhosas, if I remember correctly). The highest ranking Zulu in the ANC for much of its post liberation history (although I'm not sure if it was the case in 1994), and arguably one of their most important symbols during the fights with Inkatha, was Jacob Zuma, who we know to be hilariously corrupt. While I don't think its likely, if he defects to Inkatha (presumably because he either listens to the council of a Chief he respects who likes Inkatha, or because one of the Indian businessmen who gives him and his family money tells him to), it could cause South Africa to fracture further on Xhosa-Zulu lines. The traditional leaders of South Africa (Chiefs and Kings) were ideologically incompatible with the Marxist leaning elements in the ANC, and it took Mandela's pragmatism to keep that issue from getting out of control. Remove him, and things could break down quite different.
So there are many ways to bring about a Civil War in South Africa in the run up to the end of Apartheid.
I believe a prerequisite is no trust in a peaceful transition, so a terrorist act on part of ANC, SWAPO or some other radical spin-off faction thereof, as hypothesised in this other thread, could result in a violent confrontation once economic sanctions start to bit.
Tovarich
Banned
Thinking about it, if Mandela actually collapsed in front of other ANC prisoners during a period when there's no particularly intensive spike in conflict/tension, and it's confirmed by respected autopsy that death was due to previously unknown congenital heart defect (if AHC is for storytelling purposes, maybe have Christiaan Barnard do it?) I wonder if maybe could that provide a 'bolt out of the blue' shock-POD (they do sometimes happen; OTL is loaded with 'em!) allowing a National Party faction prepared to at least admit their game was up to take firmer control earlier.
Maybe around the time the Conservative Party (SA) was splitting/forming from the National Party hardcore Apartheidists?
ETA: I'm doing the opposite of helping create a full Civil War there, D'OH!
Sorry, mind is wandering a bit.
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Garrison
Donor
I honestly think the assumption would be it was some sort of poison and the report had been faked or it wasn't really Mandela's body they autopsied. Just look at all the conspiracy theories surrounding JFK, not to mention those who interests would be served by rejecting the natural causes explanation of Mandela's death and the fact the South African government had made something of a habit of covering up the truth about deaths in custody, Steve Biko for example.
Dixieland1861
Banned
In practically any case, any civil war breaking out in South Africa would be a full blown race war (at least that how the racists put it) between the White Afrikaner Union of South Africa up against the Black South African Spear of the Nation/African National Congress. There would be mass racial tension on both sides and whoever comes out on top will forever tip the scale when it comes to dominance and change the racial landscape of South Africa as we know it.
If Mandela is killed, I think the major leader of the more peaceful front is gone and instead, you have an enraged african populous who probably don't just want their country back, they want it back plus the death of every white person they can get their hands on (at least the likes of a Peter Mokaba and co).
Vortex by Larry Bond had a scenario like this. An ANC plan is hatched to assassinate the entire NP cabinet, but a hardline minister gets wind of this and conveniently misses the event where much of the top leadership is killed. He becomes President, proceeds to invade Namibia, and implement an even harsher oppressive regime.
South Africa gets invaded by Cubans, nukes and chemical weapons get used, and eventually the US and UK invade to restore peace. Overall a pretty good book.
There are probably a couple of places where civil war was possible. In most recent times, Constand Viljoen, the former head of the SADF and first leader of the Freedom Front, actually considered a coup to overthrow De Klerk and rollback reforms. This could have got messy, you would have had rebel SADF units, loyalists units, with the fighting between the ANC and IFP thrown into the mix.
South Africa gets invaded by Cubans, nukes and chemical weapons get used, and eventually the US and UK invade to restore peace. Overall a pretty good book.
There are probably a couple of places where civil war was possible. In most recent times, Constand Viljoen, the former head of the SADF and first leader of the Freedom Front, actually considered a coup to overthrow De Klerk and rollback reforms. This could have got messy, you would have had rebel SADF units, loyalists units, with the fighting between the ANC and IFP thrown into the mix.