AHC: Have a socialist revolution break out in Great Britain after WW1

In the event of a German victory in World War One (POD being that Amiens is captured in the Spring Offensive cutting off Allied supply lines from the Channel Ports), could that be the catalyst for social disorder and overall disillusionment that would lead to a British Revolution shortly after?
Something that has been very irritating in this thread has been the idea that dimarcracy automatically keeping revolutions from happening, I can toaly see a revolution in Briton if they lose ww1, especially when thanks to you we see just how unstable even natoriasly stable Briton was gust before ww1.
An interesting point.
It would depend on why the Kaiserschlacht succeeded, and why it failed historically. Probably the biggest problem was Ludendorff, with his lack of actual, clear objectives for the offensive mixed with his constant changes of plans.
While the assault units generally worked well, they were poorly supported (ironically cavalry, or at least dragoons/mounted infantry, would have been useful here) when it came to defeating strongpoints and lacked teh supplies (or supply train) to provide for longer offensive operations. Allied air superiority (due to lack of fuel) didn't help as it allowed for detailed and constant reconnaissance, artillery direction and air support.

If the offensive was more successful, which will need a PoD rather earlier I think, I can see France collapsing and British forces retreating to the coast. Perhaps the Nivelle Offensive goes even more badly than OTL and Pétain screws up suppressing the late-1917 mutinies (mass executions et cetera).

This would leave the UK with a foothold oo the channel coast, supported by naval gunfire. They could probably maintain this, but I'm dubious about it's long term viability as this would leave their cruisers and battleships confined to a small area of sea around the Frano-Belgian coast and hence very vulnerable to German light units, submarines or even the Kriegsmarine battleline (fuel permitting). Likewise shipping across the channel would be susceptible to attacks.
 
How long after the war can we have our POD? Because the 1920's do seem more promising than the late 1910's. Perhaps @theirishdreamer's timeline about a British attack on Four Courts in 1922 could help get the ball rolling. Another pointless and unpopular war could further discredit Lloyd George and possibly the Conservatives under Bonar Law as well, paving the way for radical leftists.
 

Bomster

Banned
How long after the war can we have our POD? Because the 1920's do seem more promising than the late 1910's. Perhaps @theirishdreamer's timeline about a British attack on Four Courts in 1922 could help get the ball rolling. Another pointless and unpopular war could further discredit Lloyd George and possibly the Conservatives under Bonar Law as well, paving the way for radical leftists.
This sounds like a good idea, imagine leaving one bloody war and soon after joining another, this time to subjugate Ireland.
 

Deleted member 94680

This sounds like a good idea, imagine leaving one bloody war and soon after joining another, this time to subjugate Ireland.

This requires a more reactionary “right of centre” government to attain the goal. OTL, the British public were against DLG’s continued sabre-rattling and the government was forced to back down. How do we overcome the resistance of the public (and large parts of the conscript army, for that matter) to get to the place where a left-wing reaction against extreme right-wing actions would gain popular public support?
 

Bomster

Banned
This requires a more reactionary “right of centre” government to attain the goal. OTL, the British public were against DLG’s continued sabre-rattling and the government was forced to back down. How do we overcome the resistance of the public (and large parts of the conscript army, for that matter) to get to the place where a left-wing reaction against extreme right-wing actions would gain popular public support?
Perhaps the King, paranoid of a socialist uprising in his country after both Russia and France fall to to revolutions, invites the military to seize power to stabilize Great Britain and Ireland, which backfires as the British people feel betrayed by king and country and fight against them.
 

Deleted member 94680

Perhaps the King, paranoid of a socialist uprising in his country, invites the military to seize power to stabilize Great Britain and Ireland, which backfires as the British people feel betrayed by king and country and fight against them.

Can’t see that happening “out of the blue” as it were, from the King or the Army, as things stood OTL in 1918/19. George V was very much a Constitutional Monarch and I’m not sure there’s enough reactionary feeling at the head of the Army to accept proposal even if it were offered.

Further down the line, after a string of crises and failures of civilian government(s), maaaybe, but I think you’d need a whole string of PoDs to get George to be so reactionary.
 

Bomster

Banned
Can’t see that happening “out of the blue” as it were, from the King or the Army, as things stood OTL in 1918/19. George V was very much a Constitutional Monarch and I’m not sure there’s enough reactionary feeling at the head of the Army to accept proposal even if it were offered.

Further down the line, after a string of crises and failures of civilian government(s), maaaybe, but I think you’d need a whole string of PoDs to get George to be so reactionary.
How would you get Britain to the point of revolution then?
 

Deleted member 94680

How would you get Britain to the point of revolution then?

Like I’ve said; it would need a string of events, one on top of another, to reach the point where revolution is a serious possibility.

I think Ireland is the “best chance” for the scenario to occur. Maybe a hardliner of some stripe (I don’t know who, btw) gets into power post-Chanak and decides to send the Regulars in alongside the Black and Tans. You then have a large-scale rebellion by Regulars (think Curragh incident, but far more widespread) which is challenged by loyal Regulars. This spirals into a “British Army Civil War”, which leads to increasingly severe measures, both home and abroad. Eventually, the severe measures (broaching fascism, if you will) generate support for a left-wing counter to the right-wing government of the day. The repression of “Fenian troublemakers” is broadened to include left-wing opposition to the government, pushing the left-wing further Left. The King during all this is either pro-government or “disgustingly ambivalent” to the actions of parliament. Eventually, disgruntled Army officers, conscript soldiers and the far-Left underground Opposition launch a revolution with sufficient popular support to overthrow the government and establish a Republic.
 

Bomster

Banned
Like I’ve said; it would need a string of events, one on top of another, to reach the point where revolution is a serious possibility.

I think Ireland is the “best chance” for the scenario to occur. Maybe a hardliner of some stripe (I don’t know who, btw) gets into power post-Chanak and decides to send the Regulars in alongside the Black and Tans. You then have a large-scale rebellion by Regulars (think Curragh incident, but far more widespread) which is challenged by loyal Regulars. This spirals into a “British Army Civil War”, which leads to increasingly severe measures, both home and abroad. Eventually, the severe measures (broaching fascism, if you will) generate support for a left-wing counter to the right-wing government of the day. The repression of “Fenian troublemakers” is broadened to include left-wing opposition to the government, pushing the left-wing further Left. The King during all this is either pro-government or “disgustingly ambivalent” to the actions of parliament. Eventually, disgruntled Army officers, conscript soldiers and the far-Left underground Opposition launch a revolution with sufficient popular support to overthrow the government and establish a Republic.
I love this scenario. A few questions however, how socialist would this British Republic be? What would happen to Ireland? Assuming that Soviet Russia and Socialist France survive their post-revolution civil wars would relations between the three be favorable or icy? And what would be the economic and political effects of a socialist Britain on the world? On Germany and America?
 
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Deleted member 94680

I love this scenario. A few questions however, how socialist would this British Republic be? What would happen to Ireland? Assuming that Soviet Russia and Socialist France survive their post-revolution civil wars would relations between the three be favorable or icy? And what would be the economic and political effects of a socialist Britain on the world? On Germany and America?

In the scenario as sketched (I must stress this, it’s by no means fleshed out) I would suppose it’s very socialist. The Royal Family have been disposed, civilian government has been overthrown, there has been a preceding period of right-wing repression and essentially a Civil War has been fought in the British Isles. As for Ireland, take your pick. A fellow socialist republic, a “SSR of the British Republic”, subjugated territory - they’re all a possibility. International relations - again, roll a dice. Inter-socialist strife (alt Sino-Soviet split, etc), a grand coalition of People’s Republics, icy indifference owing to differing interpretations of some obscure Marxist dogma, they’re all possibilities. Germany with a Socialist Britain and France (not sure where that comes from, or do you mean the OTL left-of-centre French governments?) would probably be comfortably SPD dominated, if not outright Spartakist. America would be hostile, I imagine. I can’t see Britain going Red taking America with it.
 

Bomster

Banned
In the scenario as sketched (I must stress this, it’s by no means fleshed out) I would suppose it’s very socialist. The Royal Family have been disposed, civilian government has been overthrown, there has been a preceding period of right-wing repression and essentially a Civil War has been fought in the British Isles. As for Ireland, take your pick. A fellow socialist republic, a “SSR of the British Republic”, subjugated territory - they’re all a possibility. International relations - again, roll a dice. Inter-socialist strife (alt Sino-Soviet split, etc), a grand coalition of People’s Republics, icy indifference owing to differing interpretations of some obscure Marxist dogma, they’re all possibilities. Germany with a Socialist Britain and France (not sure where that comes from, or do you mean the OTL left-of-centre French governments?) would probably be comfortably SPD dominated, if not outright Spartakist. America would be hostile, I imagine. I can’t see Britain going Red taking America with it.
I always imagined France to be more susceptible to revolutionary socialism than Britain, so if Britain went red France went red too, probably before Britain did, or around the same time.
 

Deleted member 94680

I always imagined France to be more susceptible to revolutionary socialism than Britain, so if Britain went red France went red too, probably before Britain did, or around the same time.

Possibly, but that would require a string of different PoDs for France, separate to what happens in Britain.
 

Bomster

Banned
Possibly, but that would require a string of different PoDs for France, separate to what happens in Britain.
Before I get ahead of myself, I think it would be interesting to flesh out your scenario because it sounds like the most plausible way a Marxist British Republic can emerge.
 
How would you get Britain to the point of revolution then?
Now that's a good question. I suggest a long, grinding and unsuccessful war, with serious incompetence in leadership to exacerbate things.

I'd suggest early ore pre-war PoDs with factors leading to a generally worse conduct of the war.
Perhaps the pre-war .280 rifle programme goes better and there is a shortage of weapons in the early stages, leading to worse British performance. We'd need the Germans to avoid an early victory but be slightly more effective and take a more defensive stance, allowing the British and French armies to inflict more casualties on themselves.
The Shell Crisis in 1914-15 has possibilities; perhaps the anti-government publicity is worse and their is a feeling that the Munitions of War Act is being used against workers and unions specifically, rather than against obstructive manufacturers?
Perhaps some German sabotage leads to workers being blamed.

Now, assuming the general shape of the war is similar, you'll have a mess on the Western Front. Sooner or later Wilson will find an excuse to involve the US (unless there are problems there; we've covered the possibilities of messing with McAdoo's actions in 1914 elsewhere on the forum). So in 1917 the Franco-British Nivelle Offensive goes badly wrong, with the Allies failing on a tactical level as well as strategically but the attacks are pressed (brutal et continu) well into the late summer.
By June the French have suffered 180,000 casualties, with 45,000 dead, and their medical services have collapsed. Britain has suffered 225,000 casualties and the whole offensive is perceived as a disaster.
French morale is at the point of collapse, British is badly shaken.
In June German counter-attacks have driven the Allies back beyond their starting points and French troops are rushed into a disastrous counter-counter-attack. While the Germans regroup French morale collapses and mutinies spread (on a larger scale than OTL) including into British units.
Faced with the prospect of further German offensives Pétain suppresses the mutinies by force, though some units refuse to fire on their comrades. He warns the government in Paris that a crisis has been reached.
Meanwhile British forces at Étaples and other camps have heard of the mutinies. Something sparks a crisis at one of the camps (let's assume the New Zealanders at Étaples). Scared MPs fire into a crowd, killing a dozen or so soldiers (and a couple of French civilians). The redcaps are overwhelmed by more than a thousand mostly unarmed troops and several are hanged from trees. The troops arm themselves and some work to fortify the camp, sending a list of demands to Haig. Others pursue the fleeing MP detachments into the town, where further violence by both sides ensues. The Commandant is locked in a cell, along with many of the camp officers and instructors.
Haig dispatches ordinary infantry, the HAC and a Machine Gun Corps detachment to suppress the mutiny. When the troops arrive some of the infantry refuse to fire on mutineers and clash with the officer cadets.
In late September tanks, machine guns and artillery is used to finally eliminate the mutiny. However sporadic acts of disobedience are occurring throughout the British Army and the French Army is collapsing. The Allies request a ceasefire and over the winter of 1917-18 an armistice is negotiated.

Bitterly disillusioned men return home, newly enfranchised by the Fourth Reform Act (earlier than OTL) and troubles are rumbling in Ireland.
 
I think Ireland is the “best chance” for the scenario to occur. Maybe a hardliner of some stripe (I don’t know who, btw) gets into power post-Chanak and decides to send the Regulars in alongside the Black and Tans. You then have a large-scale rebellion by Regulars (think Curragh incident, but far more widespread) which is challenged by loyal Regulars. This spirals into a “British Army Civil War”, which leads to increasingly severe measures, both home and abroad. Eventually, the severe measures (broaching fascism, if you will) generate support for a left-wing counter to the right-wing government of the day. The repression of “Fenian troublemakers” is broadened to include left-wing opposition to the government, pushing the left-wing further Left. The King during all this is either pro-government or “disgustingly ambivalent” to the actions of parliament. Eventually, disgruntled Army officers, conscript soldiers and the far-Left underground Opposition launch a revolution with sufficient popular support to overthrow the government and establish a Republic.
For Ireland maybe have James Connolly being arrested in 1915/16 just before the Easter Uprising. The Easter Rising still occurs in 1916 and in the process Emon De Valrea is shot alongside the other martyrs, souring relations between America and Britain slightly, maybe this could lead to Irish American support of the IRA after the war. Connolly gets out and with help from Collins organises the remains of the IRB after the war leading to a left wing IRA attacking the Brits. Now James Connolly had numerous friends in the British left wing and trade unions from before the war so the British Government uses that as an excuse to arrest the left wing of British and driving it underground. When the British revolution occurs Connolly organises with revolutionary regulars to help get rid of the British forces there (in return there granted amnesty and are returned back home). The new Socialist British Republic and the Irish Republic share a rather cordial relationship with both of them viewing themselves as true heirs of Socialist thought compared to the newly formed USSR.

However both countries are experiencing problems, Britain is probably dealing with the remains of the "Fascist" Government and with Communists revolutionaries who want the country to be like the Soviets whilst Ireland is dealing Conservative Republicans and Unionists.

Also makes me wonder what happening to other countries in Europe in this scenario, maybe we have a Spanish War about 10 years earlier and France devolving into it's own problems. America decides to turn away from Europe and focus on Asia seeing Europe as a lost cause.
 
For Ireland maybe have James Connolly being arrested in 1915/16 just before the Easter Uprising. The Easter Rising still occurs in 1916 and in the process Emon De Valrea is shot alongside the other martyrs, souring relations between America and Britain slightly, maybe this could lead to Irish American support of the IRA after the war. Connolly gets out and with help from Collins organises the remains of the IRB after the war leading to a left wing IRA attacking the Brits. Now James Connolly had numerous friends in the British left wing and trade unions from before the war so the British Government uses that as an excuse to arrest the left wing of British and driving it underground. When the British revolution occurs Connolly organises with revolutionary regulars to help get rid of the British forces there (in return there granted amnesty and are returned back home). The new Socialist British Republic and the Irish Republic share a rather cordial relationship with both of them viewing themselves as true heirs of Socialist thought compared to the newly formed USSR.

However both countries are experiencing problems, Britain is probably dealing with the remains of the "Fascist" Government and with Communists revolutionaries who want the country to be like the Soviets whilst Ireland is dealing Conservative Republicans and Unionists.

Also makes me wonder what happening to other countries in Europe in this scenario, maybe we have a Spanish War about 10 years earlier and France devolving into it's own problems. America decides to turn away from Europe and focus on Asia seeing Europe as a lost cause.
Remove Eóin MacNeill's countermanding order at Easter 1916 and have a full scale IVF supported uprising. Britain loses at the Somme.
 
Remove Eóin MacNeill's countermanding order at Easter 1916 and have a full scale IVF supported uprising. Britain loses at the Somme.
Hmm okay how about this, The Easter Uprising occurs and is still crushed but it takes longer and requires more men and blood as a result. Much of IVF leadership who hasn't already been arrested is killed leaving individuals like Connolly,Collins and Larkin remaining (Connolly being arrested before hand whilst Collins is low ranking and Larkin wasn't actively involved in the Uprising but did support it), leading much of the remains of the IVF and IRB to lean heavily to the left as they plan again.

The British get nowhere with the Somme and resentment boils as the British High Command doesn't learn anything from it. Cue Passchendale which becomes an even worse slog, incidents occur in Etaples which are haphazardly suppressed, the British and Commonwealth armies are at breaking point. As 1917 goes into 1918 everyone has had enough, America doesn't join leading to France, Britain and Germany burning itself by the Winter of 1918/19 (not helped by Spanish Flu killing many, including Lloyd George).

An armistice is signed that essentially causes everything to return back to pre-1914 borders, as Austro-Hungry, the Ottomans and the Germany's explode into Civil War and Revolution. The Irish raise up and due to the left wing nature of there revolution and the fact that left wing revolutions are springing up in Europe the British lead by Bonar Law crack down on left wing movements hard including the moderates like Labour whilst the regulars are shipped to Ireland and Russia after the War.

Meanwhile in Ireland, Poison Gas, Aeroplane bombings and massacres are used to try and crush the Irish rebellion quickly. Instead it radicalises and angers the Irish more leading to Ireland becoming a meat grinder for troops. The regulars go on strike lead by officers like Clement Attlee and after attempts to arrest strikers go awry the Soliders raise up, supported by underground left wing movements, Dominon troops who haven't managed to return home yet and workers displeased with the Goverment. Cue Revolution.

Of course that is just one idea of many.
 
I think Ireland is the “best chance” for the scenario to occur. Maybe a hardliner of some stripe (I don’t know who, btw) gets into power post-Chanak and decides to send the Regulars in alongside the Black and Tans.

JFC Fuller? He was involved with fascists IOTL. Perhaps prior events could cause him to get more involved in politics and radicalize his OTL views even further.
 

Deleted member 94680

JFC Fuller? He was involved with fascists IOTL. Perhaps prior events could cause him to get more involved in politics and radicalize his OTL views even further.

When I wrote about a hardliner getting into power, I meant politically. Fuller was only "involved with fascists" after his military career ended. He also turned down Command at Tidworth in '27 to concentrate on his mechanised warfare theories, so would be unlikely to enter politics before that.
 
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