AHC: Have a Green Party come to power somewhere.

But I think OP means a Green-led government. And to achieve that you need a Green-SPD-Left-coalition which isn't impossible, but you seriously will have to alter Germany and the Greens because at the moment the Greens lack the ability to be a "people's party" which is able to reach out to all kind of voters.

The era of "people's parties" is over in German politics. With a little bit of luck, the Greens have a chance in the next elections.

While lacking strength in rural regions and East Germany, the Greens are currently on a path of becoming the strongest party in West German cities, since both the CDU and the SPD have problems attracting urban voters.

The CDU is currently moving away from the more centrist Merkel-Ära back to more conservative roots. This alienates moderate urban voters and slowly transforms the CDU into a more rural party. Meanwhile the SPD is unable to regain its previous strength, since traditional social democratic milieus vanished. Meanwhile far right voters won't vote for the CDU/CSU as long as the AfD is available.

In Baden-Württemberg, the Greens are already in the position of a "people's party", on the state and communal level. Several larger cities in Germany have green mayors. Younger voters have a stronger tendency to vote the Greens, while older voters prever CDU or SPD.

My POD would be no Corona Crisis, and later Friedrich Merz as the next leader of the CDU. Merz fails to attract centrist voters during the 2021 federal elections. A hot summer strengthens the Climate Protests. Result: The Greens gain 25% with a weakened SPD. While the CDU has a better result with somewhat above 30%, a Green-Red-Red coalition forms.
Let us now greet Chancellor Robert Habeck.
 
In Baden-Württemberg, the Greens are already in the position of a "people's party", on the state and communal level. Several larger cities in Germany have green mayors. Younger voters have a stronger tendency to vote the Greens, while older voters prever CDU or SPD.

Thing the green position in BW is not the same as the green position in Berlin.

And a left coalition will expose those fault lines, especially with die Linke.
 
But I think OP means a Green-led government. And to achieve that you need a Green-SPD-Left-coalition which isn't impossible, but you seriously will have to alter Germany and the Greens because at the moment the Greens lack the ability to be a "people's party" which is able to reach out to all kind of voters.
Really on current polling it's less likely than a cdu led government bu far from unachievable especially if Merkel does retire
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
My POD would be no Corona Crisis, and later Friedrich Merz as the next leader of the CDU. Merz fails to attract centrist voters during the 2021 federal elections. A hot summer strengthens the Climate Protests. Result: The Greens gain 25% with a weakened SPD. While the CDU has a better result with somewhat above 30%, a Green-Red-Red coalition forms.
Let us now greet Chancellor Robert Habeck.
I was really looking forward to this. F****** Corana. I will comment no further, it would belong in chat.
 
The era of "people's parties" is over in German politics. With a little bit of luck, the Greens have a chance in the next elections.

While lacking strength in rural regions and East Germany, the Greens are currently on a path of becoming the strongest party in West German cities, since both the CDU and the SPD have problems attracting urban voters.

The CDU is currently moving away from the more centrist Merkel-Ära back to more conservative roots. This alienates moderate urban voters and slowly transforms the CDU into a more rural party. Meanwhile the SPD is unable to regain its previous strength, since traditional social democratic milieus vanished. Meanwhile far right voters won't vote for the CDU/CSU as long as the AfD is available.

In Baden-Württemberg, the Greens are already in the position of a "people's party", on the state and communal level. Several larger cities in Germany have green mayors. Younger voters have a stronger tendency to vote the Greens, while older voters prever CDU or SPD.

My POD would be no Corona Crisis, and later Friedrich Merz as the next leader of the CDU. Merz fails to attract centrist voters during the 2021 federal elections. A hot summer strengthens the Climate Protests. Result: The Greens gain 25% with a weakened SPD. While the CDU has a better result with somewhat above 30%, a Green-Red-Red coalition forms.
Let us now greet Chancellor Robert Habeck.
I agree that is quite plausible
 
The situation in France and Belgium
here the Green made everything wrong what you can do

The French TV "France3" provided a free hour for Political speech in 1970s and early 1980s
Here the early French Green to hold up to ridicule,
As I saw them first on TV in 1980s, I thought to see french version of "Monty Python flying Circus"
There biggest rise to power was as coalition partner for Socialist and left under President Holland
so deeper was there fall in last election in France...


The Belgium Green, the Flemish "Groen" and Wallon "Ecolo" were protest voter parties in 1980s and 1990s
they ende up as coalition partner for various parties with big influence during earlier 2000s
Then they successful push for Nuclear power Exit in Belgium, but prevented (with others) the build up of alternativ energy like Windmills
15 years later Belgium has to prolog there Nuclear power Exit to 2025 and you guest it, the Green (and others) are hindering again...
modern-day are both parties only notorious know for:
The Wallons for there wacky statements like "Belgium fries with steak are bad for environment there must be forbidden by Law!"
The Flemish for there vulgar and disgusting opposition vs. the governments of federal Belgium.
alienating there voters...
 
Really on current polling it's less likely than a cdu led government bu far from unachievable especially if Merkel does retire
Current Polling is massive influenced by the "rally around the flag"-effect of corona. Before the corona crisis Red-Red-Green had a solid majority.
 
M5S has a strong environmentalist streak, and has tried to join the Green group in the European Parliament (if that's enough to be considered 'Green') in the past, only to be rejected due to their more right wing discourse on immigration. They've subsequently gone on to be the largest party in two coalition governments in Italy over the last few years. So a situation where the left of that party is stronger could see them accepted into the Greens, thus arguably making them a green party leading a government.

They are not a "Green" party in any meaningful sense, though. While they do indeed have a strong enviromentalist streak, their main issue is arguably about corruption and political privilege. They also have been quite willing to ally with parties, such as The League, who are usually far from "Green" concerns and tend to be sympathetic to business interests and sport hunters. Their current government ally, the Democratic Party is more enviromentally conscious (and includes a few former Greens) but also tends to be aligned with some business interests and has not a particularly "green" agenda right now.
I stop here since this risks going into Current Politics.
 
How about a traffic light coalition in Germany that's led by the Greens?

Possible, but less likely compared to Green Red Red.
Both the "traffic light" and "Jamaika" are possible coalitions, but have a somewhat lower probability.
All parties involved are able to form coalitions, but they usually prefer other alternatives.

Usually the FDP prefers coalitions with the CDU/CSU compared to coalitions with the Greens or the SPD.
Maybe a Black-Green coalition is also somewhat more likely than a "traffic light"

Traffic Light (Greens, FDP, SPD) and Jamaika (CDU, Greens, FDP) are possible coalitions if Grand Coalition ( CDU-SPD) , Black-Yellow (CDU-FDP), Green Red / Red Green (SPD, Greens), and Green Red Red (SPD, Greens, and "the Left") are impossible or if coalition negotiations for these more common coalitions fail.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
How about a traffic light coalition in Germany that's led by the Greens?

That would have been possible after the last election in Hessen.
But the FDP wasn't even willing to discuss it.
Not under Green leadership, they would have entered negotiations if the SPD had been stronger than the Greens though.
 
They are not a "Green" party in any meaningful sense, though. While they do indeed have a strong enviromentalist streak, their main issue is arguably about corruption and political privilege. They also have been quite willing to ally with parties, such as The League, who are usually far from "Green" concerns and tend to be sympathetic to business interests and sport hunters. Their current government ally, the Democratic Party is more enviromentally conscious (and includes a few former Greens) but also tends to be aligned with some business interests and has not a particularly "green" agenda right now.
I stop here since this risks going into Current Politics.
They are primarily an anti-establishment party, but I'm not sure that that means they cant be a green party too. There are plenty of Greens parties who mix that with environmental politics. And there have certainly been Green parties that have been willing to get into bed with right wing parties (such as with the current coalition in Austria) so I dont think that the Lega coalition disqualifies M5S either.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
They are primarily an anti-establishment party, but I'm not sure that that means they cant be a green party too. There are plenty of Greens parties who mix that with environmental politics. And there have certainly been Green parties that have been willing to get into bed with right wing parties (such as with the current coalition in Austria) so I dont think that the Lega coalition disqualifies M5S either.

It does. It is the reason why M5S sitting in the GREEN/EFA group wasn't an option.
The Lega is an extremist right wing party, while the ÖVP is a moderate right wing big tent party.
 
It does. It is the reason why M5S sitting in the GREEN/EFA group wasn't an option.
The Lega is an extremist right wing party, while the ÖVP is a moderate right wing big tent party.
Greens/EFA's rejection of M5S predated the coalition with Lega by several years, so it couldn't have been a reason for that.

My understanding that the OVP have shifted markedly to the right under Kurz, so to describe them as 'moderate' is debatable- particularly as they had no objections to getting into bed with an extremist right wing party themselves just prior to the Green coalition.

I seem to recall that Lega has centrist and even leftist elements to it. If those still exist, they are clearly far more broad church than the OVP.
 
The Marin government in Finland has the local Greens as the third party of the 5-party coalition government, does that count?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Greens/EFA's rejection of M5S predated the coalition with Lega by several years, so it couldn't have been a reason for that.

My understanding that the OVP have shifted markedly to the right under Kurz, so to describe them as 'moderate' is debatable- particularly as they had no objections to getting into bed with an extremist right wing party themselves just prior to the Green coalition.

I seem to recall that Lega has centrist and even leftist elements to it. If those still exist, they are clearly far more broad church than the OVP.

Seriously? By British standards the ÖVP comes closest to the Tories, while the Lega is something between the DUP and the BNP.
 
The best bet seems to be the Greens leading a coalition in Germany. Seeing as Germany essentially runs the EU (at least it did before carona) what kind of differences could a Green Germany make in the EU?
 
It would be wise to move this thread to Chat.

The best bet seems to be the Greens leading a coalition in Germany. Seeing as Germany essentially runs the EU (at least it did before carona) what kind of differences could a Green Germany make in the EU?

In general, they are progressive pro-Europeans. In their foreign policy, the Greens are somewhat more pacifist and somewhat more focused on human rights. Still they are pragmatic and will largely continue the foreign policy of previous governments. For example previous foreign missions of the German military would continue, but the Greens would probably oppose new interventions and a larger military budget.

German conservatives are already largely pro European, but want to maintain strong nation states inside the European Union. The Greens are more open to French proposals to reform the European Union, and more integration and a stronger Union. The Greens are more concerned about human rights and refugees. They would be somewhat more open to Southern European concerns and proposals about debt.
French-German cooperation (which is essential for the current EU) would continue. The Greens would push somewhat harder to criticize Hungary and Poland.
Currently the Greens support the Franco-German 500 billion plan.

The Greens would support current initiatives for more engagement against the climate crisis. Therefore they would support current proposals to subsidize technology and economic adaptation. They would oppose any support for coal power plants (which could lead to conflicts with Poland).

Still the Greens need at least one coalition partner. Therefore the government policy wouldn't necessarily reflect all Green positions.
Also to change the European Union you need a large consensus between the most important member states. Therefore while Germany would take somewhat different positions, changes wouldn't be fundamental.

The Greens would emphasize that Europe is a project of peace and solidarity.
 
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