AHC: Halt Spain's decline in the Victorian Era

Just out of curiosity - how would you go about Spain maintaining a level of world power status in the latter half of the 19th century?

Queen Isabella seems a crucial problem, as she constantly inferred with the government, then you have Carlists remnants, Cuban nationalism, the United States etc.

Now personally I think Spain had some possibility to at least remain a secondary power. The 1860s saw numerous victories in 'small wars' across in the globe in Morocco, Peru and Indochina. You also had Leopoldo O'Donnell who ruled during the decade with his centrist Union Liberal who provided some stability. However on his death in the early 1870s it died with him.

Now if you can somehow neutralise Isabella say with a more influential Consort than the Duke of Cadiz would that help? His younger brother Prince Enrique was a handsome swashbuckling liberal and apparently Isabella liked him. Considering Cadiz's supposed homosexuality and/or impotence is it hard to see him be chosen if the right scandal takes place? Given the small Anglo-French crisis that arose over the marriage Enrique's liberal credentials might help act as a compromise for Britain.

The Union Liberal surviving might help, and indeed the unrest of the early 1870s were as much to blame for the left and right going their separate ways as anything. Or if Enrique gets leverage he might push for a more democratic system overall.

Colonially, the problem is Cuba which is Spain's eggs all in one basket. I think Madrid getting hold of some profitable colonies elsewhere might make her more agreeable to autonomy/dominion status for the island, avoiding the bloody downward spiral and eventual American war. Here there's a few ideas. 1) I think giving France's periods of unrest in 1848 and 1870-71, Spain could pull off primacy in Morocco, and from there perhaps more influence along the North-west African coast. 2) Indochina - Spain helped France during its invasion in the 1860s, Napoleon III suggested Spain take Tonkin, effectively splitting Vietnam north and south, but Spain didn't wish to commit. They missed a trick, Tonkin was quite wealthy and would allow the Spanish access to southern Chinese markets. 3) Borneo - much more minor but Spain dabbled in North Borneo fighting pirates, and established several forts in the area, even butting heads with the Dutch to keep a hand. 4) Sub-Saharan Africa - the areas of Cameroon and Congo were in easy reach of established island bases, could Spain get a more impressive slice of the Scramble?
 
I think colonies, no matter what their wealth, would not benefit Spain greatly. There was a lot of land and tax reform needed on the home-front, and perhaps a conflict to stir up some nationalism. Cuba really was a blow that left Spain staggering.
 
Is there any conceivable way the Spanish could manage their "one basket" better, so as to get profit out of Cuba while stabilizing it politically, so it isn't such a tempting target for US ambitions?

Of course reflection on the Spanish-American War reminds us instantly, Cuba was not the only basket. There was also Puerto Rico--and of course the Philippines!

From some studies of the latter I've done but long ago, I have the impression that in the 19th century, there was pressure on the colonial system in general and the Philippines in particular to yield profits; the way that and concurrent liberalization was managed led to trouble; the liberalization and the sporadic development both provided new channels for Filipino nationalism to form and spread, while the rapacious (if desultory) Spanish policies tended to foster grievances.

Could a more enlightened and energetic colonial policy for all Spanish possessions yield both higher revenues for the regime and colonial populations who are loyal, or at least not in rebellion? That might be a fine way to get the desired result.
 
Is there any conceivable way the Spanish could manage their "one basket" better, so as to get profit out of Cuba while stabilizing it politically, so it isn't such a tempting target for US ambitions?

Of course reflection on the Spanish-American War reminds us instantly, Cuba was not the only basket. There was also Puerto Rico--and of course the Philippines!

From some studies of the latter I've done but long ago, I have the impression that in the 19th century, there was pressure on the colonial system in general and the Philippines in particular to yield profits; the way that and concurrent liberalization was managed led to trouble; the liberalization and the sporadic development both provided new channels for Filipino nationalism to form and spread, while the rapacious (if desultory) Spanish policies tended to foster grievances.

Could a more enlightened and energetic colonial policy for all Spanish possessions yield both higher revenues for the regime and colonial populations who are loyal, or at least not in rebellion? That might be a fine way to get the desired result.

I think if the Spanish gave the Northern Philippines to the Brits in the 7 years war it might be better for the Spanish plus the Central Philippines are more loyal to the Spanish.
 
Winning the War of the Pacific would help quell some complainers and put Spain on the right foot for the rest of the century...
 
Winning the War of the Pacific would help quell some complainers and put Spain on the right foot for the rest of the century...

I assume you mean the Chincha Islands War.

I'm not sure Spain could 'win,' that conflict. She hardly had any strategic goals asides from once again showing that she was a great power, and she failed that horrendously IOTL. Perhaps instead of just raiding up and down the coast the Spanish actually captured some of the islands, such as the Juan Fernández Islands, Easter Island, the Galapagos, or even the closer islands such as the Chinchas themselves, or Mocha Island, that might count as a 'victory,' though the only end result I can see there would be even more colonial possessions for Spain to have to manage and defend, and a continental-wide anti-Spanish alliance (though on the other hand, the guano-rich islands would be very profitable for the Spanish). I'm just not sure Spain had the manpower, or the political will, to do such a thing.
 
I assume you mean the Chincha Islands War.

I'm not sure Spain could 'win,' that conflict. She hardly had any strategic goals asides from once again showing that she was a great power, and she failed that horrendously IOTL. Perhaps instead of just raiding up and down the coast the Spanish actually captured some of the islands, such as the Juan Fernández Islands, Easter Island, the Galapagos, or even the closer islands such as the Chinchas themselves, or Mocha Island, that might count as a 'victory,' though the only end result I can see there would be even more colonial possessions for Spain to have to manage and defend, and a continental-wide anti-Spanish alliance (though on the other hand, the guano-rich islands would be very profitable for the Spanish). I'm just not sure Spain had the manpower, or the political will, to do such a thing.

Sigh... yes... I think that possession of the Chinchas could happen. I think that perhaps instead of alienating Chile, Chile could fight on the side of Spain as they were in the beginning, getting some territory out of it as well at Bolivia's expense even earlier.

Even if Spain did not get anything substantial out of the war it would still bolster Spanish national morale rather than sap it like it did IOTL.
 
Perhaps if you remove most of the personalities involved, both on the Spanish and the Latin American sides, and replaced them with people who were more... somber and less given to Pareja's insanity (seriously, blockading the whole Chilean coast with just a squadron of ships, half of them of wood and sail? :rolleyes:). But certainly not with the OTL cast and circumstances.
 
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