Let's say he somehow escaped the assassination because the plot was discovered before its execution. What effects would his prolonged life have on Sweden?
so it's easy to set up a situation where somebody realizes something's wrong and decides to do something about it before they try anything.If I may add a humble opinion--it wouldn't even take that much for the killing to fail. The assassins were rank amateurs who came close to botching it--for example, they showed up at the costume ball, all wearing the same costume.
So they would recognize each other.
Needless to say, this attracted attention.
if Sweden did decide to attack Norway, would it gain some territory? or would things be status quo ante bellum?Gustav III was strongly pro-French - the Ancien Regime French that is and strongly anti-Russian.
If we pose that Gustav III lives until he's 70 (his father became 61, but was a notorious eater and drinker, his brother 69 and his son 58, although severely alcoholic) he'll die 1816.
I don't see Gustav III joining the second Legue of Armed Neutrality, which might push Sweden away from Denmark and Russia and into the arms of Britain. This might make the British consider using Sweden as a proxy to break up the second Legue of Armed neutrality. Sweden attacking Norway 1801?