AHC: Greek monarchy permanently abolished between Jan 1900 and Jan 1946

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The challenge is to have the Greek monarchy get abolished, and stay abolished, earlier in the 20th century, specifically by January 1946.

Rules:
1) Greece cannot become a Communist dictatorship or Communist one-party state
2) Greece cannot have a right-wing strong man with the regime longevity of Franco, Salazar or the Shah of Iran.
3) Greece cannot be occupied by foreign powers for more than 10 consecutive years.

I think the above eliminates some of the easier solutions to the OP.

Go.
 
The challenge is to have the Greek monarchy get abolished, and stay abolished, earlier in the 20th century, specifically by January 1946.

Rules:
1) Greece cannot become a Communist dictatorship or Communist one-party state
2) Greece cannot have a right-wing strong man with the regime longevity of Franco, Salazar or the Shah of Iran.
3) Greece cannot be occupied by foreign powers for more than 10 consecutive years.

I think the above eliminates some of the easier solutions to the OP.

Go.

Challenge accepted.

The POD is 1911, with either the British intervening to guarantee Ottoman territorial integrity from Italy or Italy facing some kind of domestic disturbance that otherwise prevents their attack on the Libya. As such, both the Balkan Wars and the CUP coup in Konstantinye are prevented, leaving a the pro-Entente liberal faction of the Young Turks in power in the Empire and the Royalist faction in the Greek Nationalism Schism proportionally more power (Having less of the generally pro-Venizélos New Territories). This prevents the Balkan Wars from breaking out pre-WW I, though Serbian nationalism is still hot and something analogous to The Great War breaks out on schedule with the Turks remaining a pro-Entente neutral. Seeking to take advantage of Balkan Nationalism and good relations with the leadership in Sofia and Athens and trying to close the Straits, Germany and AH encourage Bulgaria and Greece to attack the Empire; the King's pro-German sentiments combining with taking the Megali Idea plank out from under the Venizelist platform allowing the Monarchy to successfully reassert enough control to trigger a crisis with OE that results in the outbreak of a Balkan War parallel to The Great War (Its probably over Crete or a territorial dispute in the Aegean Isles). Who exactly has the intial advantage could go either way; the important factor is Bulgaria and Greece are perceived as strongly Pro-German and can't be allowed to disturb the situation in the Eastern Med. and Balkans that is allowing both for Russia to get out the exports of grain she needs to fund her war effort and insure there's a neutral land route by which to supply Serbia's continued military effort.

Given the situation, Britain and France send in a naval force and issue an ultimatium to Greece to withdraw. If they do, than the disgruntled officers are covertly supported (Either by the Entente or CP) coup against the government who bent to international pressure and sold out Greece's opportunity to regain her territories, either establishing a "democracy" (Which would gradually become a real one from the initial military dictatorship, in the Entente's case) or a "Government of National Salvation" in support of Constantine's ambitions that formally joins the war on Germany's side. In the later case, when the Germans lose the monarchy is permanently abolished and a Hellenic Republic instated in its place under the leadership of those politicians that were part of the Venizelist faction.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
This is a very cool scenario. For a variety of reasons actually.

---How could the monarchy be abolished in the 1930s or 1940s without breaking any of the rules in the OP?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
The POD is 1911, with either the British intervening to guarantee Ottoman territorial integrity from Italy or Italy facing some kind of domestic disturbance that otherwise prevents their attack on the Libya.

If it is a firm British "no" that stops the Italians will this change the Italian attitude in WWI to pro-CP attitude or an outright Italian entry on the German side?

[The firm British "no" seems like a stronger way to stop the Italian war with the Ottomans rather than a domestic disturbance, which would more likely lead to a simple postponement of the war to 1912 or 1913]

If the desire for irredenta from A-H, and the "this is just a defensive alliance, but y'all attacked first" loophole end up outweighing any bitter feeling toward the Triple Entente when the Austro-Serb crisis escalates to WWI in 1914, might the lack of exhaustion from the Ottoman War cause the Italians to jump in against A-H in 1914, as soon as its clear France is not falling?

or a "Government of National Salvation" in support of Constantine's ambitions that formally joins the war on Germany's side

If this happens, I imagine the Austro-Hungarians would attack the Ottomans in addition to the Bulgarians and Greeks, claiming Sanjak of Novi Pazar, Kosovo and most of Albania for themselves.
 
If it is a firm British "no" that stops the Italians will this change the Italian attitude in WWI to pro-CP attitude or an outright Italian entry on the German side?

[The firm British "no" seems like a stronger way to stop the Italian war with the Ottomans rather than a domestic disturbance, which would more likely lead to a simple postponement of the war to 1912 or 1913]

If the desire for irredenta from A-H, and the "this is just a defensive alliance, but y'all attacked first" loophole end up outweighing any bitter feeling toward the Triple Entente when the Austro-Serb crisis escalates to WWI in 1914, might the lack of exhaustion from the Ottoman War cause the Italians to jump in against A-H in 1914, as soon as its clear France is not falling?



If this happens, I imagine the Austro-Hungarians would attack the Ottomans in addition to the Bulgarians and Greeks, claiming Sanjak of Novi Pazar, Kosovo and most of Albania for themselves.

I'd say no: Italia Irredentia is still the Nationalist's geopolitical order of the day, so backing AH without gurantees of the "compensation" she wanted would hardly result in immediate entry. That's not even taking into account the degree to which the Italian economy was dependent on imports from GB and France, and how highly vulnerable the nation would be to the naval supremacy of the Entente relative to her Triple Alliance allies, ect. While there'd be some hard feelings and Italy would be less likely (or at least less eager) to align with the Entente, the siren's song of South Tyrol, Dalmatia, ect. is far louder than the petty ambitions in North Africa. I also think that if Britain does give a firm "no", they'd be inclined to try to redirect Italy's colonial ambition towards another bite at the Ethiopian apple.

There's a very real possibility of the invasion getting kiboshed (At least based on what I've been researching/looking into) if the assasination attempt of King Emmanuel by Antonio D'Alba succeeds. One needs only look at the deep internal divides in Italian society both pre and immediately post-war to show just how close relations between the Left and Right were from going hot; having the ultimate symbol of the conservative order killed by an anarchist is likely to spark something off and would require the military to focus inward for the immediate future.

And I think you're overestimate AH's offensive capabilities, since the Balkan conflict likely woulden't be starting immediately and thus AH is going to still suffer beating its head against Serbia and getting its head beat in by the Russians. Indeed, both Russia and Serbia are in better positions then they were historically (Having greater access to material and commercial stability via the open Straits and ability to tranship through Ottoman territory, as well as the Serbian army not having been wittled down by two Balkan Wars), while AH is neither better nor worse off. Where would they be getting the army to invade the Ottoman Balkans through that vulnerable corridor (Especially if Serbia is still standing) without running the risk of Romania and Russia breaking into the Hungarian Plains? Maybe if Italy is formally allied they could afford to delineate the Italian border, but the Habsburgs were a spent force so far as offensives were concerned not that far into the conflict.
 
Greece rather narrowly avoided becoming a republic in 1910/1911, right after the Goudi coup, ironically thanks to Venizelos himself. There was much anti-royal animus in the elites, and most especially among the junior officers (who would go on to effectively fight the Balkan Wars, WWI, Asia Minor Campaign, and provide Venizelism's military pillar) thanks to the 1897 war and the monopoly of the higher leadership by a small coterie of royalist officers. One of the first things the Military League did was to cashier the princes serving in the army. When Venizelos was called to Athens, initially as "advisor" to the Military League before becoming Prime Minister, he was considered an anti-royalist due to his clashes with Prince George in Crete. However, both due to his own tendency at the time to seek compromise, and because he knew that the monarchy was strongly backed by Britain (Greece's de facto overlord), he intervened decisively, first in preventing the 1911 Revisionary Parliament from becoming a constitutional parliament with the power to change even the fundamental articles of the Constitution, and second, once he had been named Prime Minister, by restoring the princes to the army, and by restoring Crown Prince Constantine as Inspector-General of the army (and CinC in wartime).

Irony abounds here, since without the nimbus of the Balkan War victories ostensibly "led" by Constantine, the latter would never have had the political capital to take on Venizelos... While I find it hard to believe that Venizelos would opt for a full republic with a president (given the highly factional nature of Greek politics this was a recipe for political anarchy), he certainly went the extra step (or mile) to ingratiate himself with King George when he restored the princes. If he had not done that, then the position of the throne would have been much weaker, and the National Schism would arguably have been avoided, with Greece becoming a "real" constitutional monarchy, rather than one where the king (right up to 1967) thought that he could meddle in politics.
 
Last edited:
Top