AHC: Greek Constantinople (Read before answering)

[Shtudmuffin]

WARNING: Very challenging


So your challenge is, with a PoD no earlier than Greek Independence, to allow for Constantinople/Istanbul to be controlled by Greece by 1900. I'm interested in seeing how this can be done.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

WARNING: Very challenging


So your challenge is, with a PoD no earlier than Greek Independence, to allow for Constantinople/Istanbul to be controlled by Greece by 1900. I'm interested in seeing how this can be done.

Now THAT is a very interesting challenge. I think the best bet would be to have Greece enter WWI at the start of the war instead of in 1917. Either Constantine I is persuaded that siding with the allies is best for Greece or the King is forced to abdicate earlier. However the main problem is persuading Britain and France it would be in their best interests to have Greece control Constantinople and, therefore the Dardanelles and bosphorus straits'.

Edit. Another way would be to give Greece a decisive victory in the Greco-Turkish war. I saw a dissustion about that vary topic a few months ago in the after 1900 section.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

If no earlier than the Greek Independence, then you may need Britain to become Greece's backer in gaining Constantinople. (assuming that Russia would have to throw their lot with Bulgaria)

 

[Tongera]

By 1900 though? I can think of a way it can be done after (a few actually) 1900, but not before really.

I suppose more land rebels after the War of independence, which the Ottomans can't put down and then joins Greece. Greece has a war with the Ottomans during the 1890s and captures Constantinople.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

Maybe if the Egypt Kedives gain full independence and grab lands well into Anatolia

The remaining Ottoman lands could be whittled away by Serbia, Bulgaria, Rumania, Russia with Greece getting its share as UK does not want give control of the Dardanelles to Russia.

 

[Athelstane]

By itself, Greece can't manage it.

In fact, even with help from other Balkan countries, it's almost impossible to pull it off. The Sick Man of Europe was still too powerful for them.

However, with Great Power intervention, almost *anything* is possible, even before 1900.

Consider: The Russian Army was sitting outside the walls of Constantinople in 1878 after having whipped the Turkish Army. The only thing keeping them out of the City was the British Mediterranean Fleet, which was at anchor just outside the city. Ultimately, the Congress of Berlin sorted it all out, forcing the Russians to give up much of their demands, and allowing the Ottomans to keep most of Thrace and Macedonia.

But imagine if Disraeli decided that it really did not impinge on British interests to force the Turk out of Europe - that the important thing was to keep the Russian out of it. If so, it would be easy to imagine a peace settlement which forced Turkey to surrender all of its European territory, including Constantinople, so long as it surrendered them to Balkan states like Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia and had a provision forbidding Russian naval vessels from transiting the straits or basing troops there.

And that could get you a Greece that included Constantinople. And much of Thrace besides.

 

[Tongera]

By itself, Greece can't manage it.

In fact, even with help from other Balkan countries, it's almost impossible to pull it off. The Sick Man of Europe was still too powerful for them.

However, with Great Power intervention, almost *anything* is possible, even before 1900.

Consider: The Russian Army was sitting outside the walls of Constantinople in 1878 after having whipped the Turkish Army. The only thing keeping them out of the City was the British Mediterranean Fleet, which was at anchor just outside the city. Ultimately, the Congress of Berlin sorted it all out, forcing the Russians to give up much of their demands, and allowing the Ottomans to keep most of Thrace and Macedonia.

But imagine if Disraeli decided that it really did not impinge on British interests to force the Turk out of Europe - that the important thing was to keep the Russian out of it. If so, it would be easy to imagine a peace settlement which forced Turkey to surrender all of its European territory, including Constantinople, so long as it surrendered them to Balkan states like Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia and had a provision forbidding Russian naval vessels from transiting the straits or basing troops there.

And that could get you a Greece that included Constantinople. And much of Thrace besides.

How could a potential map look like though?

 

[M79]

Here's my .02

-Otto I avoids the British blockade of 1850 and avoids officially entering the Crimean War. Greek uprisings (of OTL) in Albania, Crete, Thessaly, and Macedonia occur and backed in many cases by Greek "volunteers" with covert support from the Empire, especially in Thessaly and Macedonia. With Ottoman attention elsewhere early in the war, the revolts are more successful initially.

-In early November 1853 Ottomans declare war on Greece leading to British and French involvement to protect their investment in Grek debt while bringing the kingdom closer to bankruptcy. With the threat of European involvement against the Ottomans, they come to the bargaining table and negotiate a settlement with Greece following a battle of Sinop.

-Ottomans realize that without European help, the Russians might occupy the Sublime Porte in short order, and as a results Greece keeps Crete, Thessaly, and Macedonia while renouncing claims to Albania and Thrace. Treaty of Thessaloniki (1854) leaves Greece almost doubled in size although the "Magna Grecia" idea takes even stronger root than before

-Otto gains major support and Russian influence remains though is diminished with British favor increased as a result

-Greece prospers and continues to indirectly support irredentalists in parts of the Ottoman territories, Ionian Islands peacefully seceeded by UK on takeover of George I of Greece in 1867 following death of Otto I

-Russo-Turkish War sees Greek involvement with southern FYROM, southern Albania, and many of the Aegean Islands transferred to Greece. Bulgaria becomes a much enlarged state in the resulting Treaty of San Stefano but the revised Treaty of Berlin sees Bulgaria out of Thrace entirely, which Greece sees as ripe for annexation. Greece continues to eye Cyprus but it falls to control of the UK

-Greco-Turkish War of 1897-1898 goes in favor of Greece after rearming with bolt-action rifles and using Crete as a staging ground. With Turkish forces found in western Thrace laying siege to Thessaloniki, Greek marines land by surprise and manage to take Constantinople. International intervention will require them to give it up less than four weeks later with a humiliating peace for the Ottomans, giving Greece control of the rest of (modern FYROM), central Albania, western Thrace, and the western parts of Eastern Rumelia. This brings Bulgarians into conflict with Greece, who see the whole of eastern Rumelia and Thrace as their territory and sets the stage for the Balkan Wars of ten years later.

 

[Dementor]

-Greco-Turkish War of 1897-1898 goes in favor of Greece after rearming with bolt-action rifles and using Crete as a staging ground. With Turkish forces found in western Thrace laying siege to Thessaloniki, Greek marines land by surprise and manage to take Constantinople. International intervention will require them to give it up less than four weeks later with a humiliating peace for the Ottomans, giving Greece control of the rest of (modern FYROM), central Albania, western Thrace, and the western parts of Eastern Rumelia. This brings Bulgarians into conflict with Greece, who see the whole of eastern Rumelia and Thrace as their territory and sets the stage for the Balkan Wars of ten years later.

Why did Eastern Rumelia survive for so long in this timeline? Or was it not created at all?

 

[MrFreeman]

-Greco-Turkish War of 1897-1898 goes in favor of Greece after rearming with bolt-action rifles and using Crete as a staging ground. With Turkish forces found in western Thrace laying siege to Thessaloniki, Greek marines land by surprise and manage to take Constantinople. International intervention will require them to give it up less than four weeks later with a humiliating peace for the Ottomans, giving Greece control of the rest of (modern FYROM), central Albania, western Thrace, and the western parts of Eastern Rumelia. This brings Bulgarians into conflict with Greece, who see the whole of eastern Rumelia and Thrace as their territory and sets the stage for the Balkan Wars of ten years later.

Wat? This doesnt really make much sense.

1) Western Thrace is at least 350km from Thessalonike, and in the space between them, there are half a dozen cities, garrisoned and ready to defend against an invading force. Geographically what you said doesnt make ANY sense.

2) How would it be able for the Greek navy to enter the straights untouched, fight all the way to the city and unload enough marines to capture and hold it, what was probably the biggest balkan city at that time and still is.

3) As Dementor mentioned: why does Eastern Rumelia still exists? Why, if exists, is given partially to this newly formed uber-Greece? You wouldnt think the "great" powers would want to restrain this hastily expanding state? Why would they exchange one pan-Balkan hegemony with another one? Because the capital would be in a different geographical area?

 

[M79]

Eastern Rumelia was part of Bulgaria from 1885 on but is it technically Ottoman territory until 1908, southwestern Bulgaria is only nominally Ottoman by that point so I figure if they are going to surrender territory it would make sense to do so from a rather un-Ottoman area. Western Thrace should still be largely Greek by this point, so I thought the locals might rise to join the country. The best way to take a castle is always from the inside.

And Greece is not a pan-Balkan power. It controls most of modern Greece, southwestern Bulgaria, southern FYROM, and southern Albania. It is a convenient client of the UK at this point who, like most of the other Powers, see them a nice mid-level counterbalance to (growing) Russian and (waning) Ottoman influence in the area. They do not take Constantinople, only control it briefly. And Ottoman naval power in 1897 was not all that great, many of their ships were in disrepair but I doubt anyone would expect the Greeks to be able to take the City. With Crete already in their domain they can focus the whole of their naval power/strategy into the Dardanelles.

 

[MrFreeman]

Even so, ceding parts of Eastern Rumelia to this Greek state wouldnt make much sense either. If you want to be technical on the matter, you are giving them areas inside geographical Bulgaria, the thracian plains, and very far from western/eastern Thrace, which is for the Greeks and Turks mostly the Rodope mountains. Either we talk about enclaves of the Greek state, or you have SERIOUSLY increased the greek-controlled thracian lands. Perhaps some sort of map would clarify the position.

 

[Dementor]

Eastern Rumelia was part of Bulgaria from 1885 on but is it technically Ottoman territory until 1908, southwestern Bulgaria is only nominally Ottoman by that point so I figure if they are going to surrender territory it would make sense to do so from a rather un-Ottoman area. Western Thrace should still be largely Greek by this point, so I thought the locals might rise to join the country. The best way to take a castle is always from the inside.

As you said, Eastern Rumelia was only nominally under Ottoman control and the Ottomans would not be in any position to give it away. This would most certainly mean war with Bulgaria and could even this more powerful Greece defeat the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria at the same time?