AHC Greater Bulgaria

A map meant for coloring in Paint. Create what you will with it. Perhaps ATL Bulgaria's allies and foes?
 

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Scenario 3:
With a pod in communist Bulgaria following WW2. What could be the largest population Bulgaria could have? What policies could encourage population growth?

Could Bulgaria reach
- 20 million
- 50 million
- 100 million
?
Bulgaria, which is very sparsely populated considering the climate and soil conditions, can certainly support 20 million and likely still be a food exporter. 50 million and especially 100 million would likely be too much and in the later case would utterly ruin the environment.

The problem is how to reach 20 million by 2018. By 1945 the birth rates were far too low to make this realistic. I think Bulgaria would need the social and living conditions of Albania (which experienced similar growth in the same period) to achieve this.

What kind of offer do you think the Entente could have offered Bulgaria to convince Bulgaria's leadership? What guarantees? How might such a war between Bulgaria and the Ottomans paly out? How would Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, Romania cooperate?
I would say that forcing Serbia to surrender Macedonia (or at least most of it) immediately might persuade the Bulgarian leadership. Or alternatively the war is going worse for the Central Powers and Bulgaria is willing to enter for less.

As for the Ottomans, Bulgaria was definitely stronger than in 1912 and in this scenario doesn’t need to keep troops on its other borders. On the other hand, the Ottomans are spread on three fronts and suffering from lack of supplies. So the war should definitely go in the favor of the Allies. I imagine the first strike would be against the Galipoli peninsula (which is much closer to Bulgaria in 1915 than it was in 1912) to trap and destroy the Ottoman Armies fighting the Allies there. Once this is done and the Dardanelles are opened the Bulgaria army and British navy can attack together the weakened Ottoman Armies in front of Istanbul.


Well, absent of communist rule, there may be a lot more dam building as the Balkan nations turn to hydroelectricity to meet the raising demand for electricity their growing economies would create. I am not sure how that would impact agriculture, but it would certainly alter the natural environment of the Balkans during TTL's twentieth century compared to ours.
More dam building? In OTL dam building was certainly emphasized and it had substantial effects on the hydrology of many rivers (for example, the Maritsa ceased being navigable). More dams and some river might be at risk of running dry.
 
Challenge 4
Have Bulgaria become part of the kingdom of Yugoslavia(KY). What would the borders of this Bulgaria ATL be like?
Can't happen. You need both countries to be Communist.

Challenge 5
Have Bulgaria be part of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia(SFRY). What would the borders of this ATL Bulgaria be like?
The Stalin-Tito split would need to be avoided. Bulgaria would have its OTL borders, except for the Blagoevgrad Province (which would probably be called something else, since I can't imagine the Yugoslav Communists naming a city in Macedonia after Blagoev) which would be part of SR Macedonia, while the Western Outlands would be returned to Bulgaria.

Challenge 6
Following the breakup of OTL Yugoslavia have FYROM and the Bulgarian ethnic area of Serbia and Kosovo reunify with OTL Bulgaria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarians_in_Serbia
A far worse break-up of Yugoslavia would be needed. Perhaps the Milosevic regime decides to persecute the Bulgarian minority, which is rather unlikely.

Almost impossible. Perhaps Milosevic decides to start a violent movement to keep Macedonia from seceding (very unlikely, since Macedonia was friendly and there were hardly any Serbs there) and Bulgaria intervenes to help the Macedonians. After the war pro-Bulgarian feelings in Macedonia are very strong and Macedonia joins Bulgaria in some form of federation or confederation.


I don't see this happening even in the above scenario. The links with the Gorani is rather vague and Bulgaria would not want to get involved in Kosovo.
 
Bulgaria, which is very sparsely populated considering the climate and soil conditions, can certainly support 20 million and likely still be a food exporter. 50 million and especially 100 million would likely be too much and in the later case would utterly ruin the environment.

The problem is how to reach 20 million by 2018. By 1945 the birth rates were far too low to make this realistic. I think Bulgaria would need the social and living conditions of Albania (which experienced similar growth in the same period) to achieve this.
cMDrytB.jpg

If this map is correct it seems like Bulgarias soil is of a higher quality in the context of agriculture than the Netherlands. Netherlands being a more densely populated country than Bulgaria. It is important to note that while resources like agricultural soil is important, that technology and innovations can increase productivity. If this map is correct then Bulgaria's climate and soil quality is not bad. It also appears that Bulgarias soil is more productive than Bangladesh's.

Bulgaria's population is 22,67 times smaller than Bangladesh's. Meaning there are 22,67 residents of Bangladesh for every resident of Bulgaria. This is while Bangladesh's total area is only 33% bigger than Bulgaria's. I think this gives a picture that Bulgaria had lots of room for expanding it's population. Allthough Bangladesh as always or for a long time had a larger population than Bulgaria, Bulgaria could have catched up with Bangladesh in a ATL.


If we look into what the carrying capacity of Bulgarias agricultural resources with the level of technology it had in different years. Then what would be Bulgarias carrying capacity in 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010?

The Green revolution refers to the increase in food yield that originated in scientific research. I think this is the most important factor in defining Bulgaria's possible viable population excluding imports.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution
https://www.britannica.com/event/green-revolution
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3411969/
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/green-revolution/
 

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Maybe this TL could make accomplish challange 2
- During WW1 Bulgaria joins the Entente. Bulgaria gains Turkish Thrace and Istanbul.
- During WW2 Bulgaria joins the Axis. Bulgaria cedes similar to the "Treaty of Neuilly" to Yugoslavia, while keeping OTL Fyrom.
- The Soviet Union gives Bulgaria Dobruja as in OTL following WW2.
- Following WW2 Bulgarians in Greece revolts wishing to join Bulgaria the nation state. The Soviet Union supports Bulgarian expansion due to Greek aligment with the West(USA,UK,France,Canada,Australia,New Zealand, Belgium, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden).During this war Bulgaria achives the conquest of Greek Macedonia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Neuilly-sur-Seine
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Greek_Civil_War#Exodus_of_Slav-Macedonians_from_Greece
 
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Let's say that Bulgaria were part of the entente during ww1.
- How would the regional(Balkan, Near East) part of the world war 1 be affected by this POD?
- How would the Global part of world war 1 be affected by this POD?
- Would Bulgaria being part of the Entente increase the Entente's chance at victory?
- What could Bulgaria gain from joining the Entente? What would Bulgaria desire when joining the Entente? What would Bulgaria likely recieve in the event of Entente victory?
- How would Bulgaria joining the Entente affect it's relationship with it's neighbours(Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Russia, Greece, Turkey)?

Here is a map of a potential ATL Bulgaria following it being part of a Entente that wins WW1
Entente Bulgaria after WW1.png

What would Greece desire in such a scenario where Bulgaria get's lots of the land Greece got OTL? Would Greece get more land on the coast of Anatolia? Could Bulgaria perhaps get some land in Anatolia?

Template
Bulgaria at the set of world war 1.png
 
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