The real figures were that after the Great Migration petered out in the 1970s, 53% of blacks were still in the south.
Today it has reversed.The real figures were that after the Great Migration petered out in the 1970s, 53% of blacks were still in the south.
You’d probably see a faster reverse in black migration compared to today’s New Great Migration. I have a feeling that there might be a more Northern-focused Civil Rights Movement that is more radicalized.The real figures were that after the Great Migration petered out in the 1970s, 53% of blacks were still in the south.
Today it has reversed.
Northern industry would have to be expanding at a really phenomenal rate.
Maybe offset that by less White migration from the South? And/or less of one or another European migrant group in that era?
The real figures were that after the Great Migration petered out in the 1970s, 53% of blacks were still in the south.
Okay- how could we get it so that only 40% of American blacks are left in the south at the end of the great migration?
Freedman's bureau survives, increased education in the south leads to newly literate southerners of both races moving north circa 1880s.
Oh, if you're going to go for an early POD, much earlier immigration restrictions would have led to more black migration to the North. But this is a post-1900 section, so I didn't think an early POD was acceptable.
If we take 1900 as the earliest POD, what would be the effect of immigration restrictions enacted then? There was actually an article on this, "When the Tide Turned: Immigration and the Delay of the Great Black Migration" by William J. Collins, The Journal of Economic History, Vol.57, No. 3. (Sep., 1997), pp. 607-632. I discuss it at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/GnvUGkffCzg/JVHLJQIey_sJ As noted there, Collins writes, "Finally, suppose immigration quotas had been established in 1900 at 165,000 immigrants per year; also suppose that all of these immigrants would have located in the set of northern states employed in this study. Between 1900 and 1910 the immigration rate would have been 49.87 compared to
the actual rate of 106.85, implying, ceteris paribus, that more than 150,000 more black migrants would have moved north in that decade with earlier immigration quotas, an enormous addition to the 161,000 who actually did move. Supposing instead that foreign immigration had been banned altogether in 1900, then 295,000 more blacks might have migrated than in the free immigration case. *Indeed, it appears that the Great Migration could have been greater and occurred earlier had there been controls on foreign immigration before the 1920s.* [emphasis in original]"