The California recall was going nowhere until Darryl Issa(*) contributed $2 million to the effort, thinking he could win on the recall ballot. At the time, the conventional wisdom was that Schwarzenegger would not run. Once Schwarzenegger announced, Issa declined to run.
So: make it clear early on that Schwarzenegger does intend to run, Issa likely keeps his money, and the recall goes nowhere. Schwarzenegger then wins big in 2006, IMO.
(*) Unsolicited personal political opinion: Issa is one of the most truly despicable self-interested jerks in politics. He does not feature prominently enough in most dystopias on this board, IMO.