AHC: Give Nappy III a Night's Rest

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
The challenge is to resolve 'the German Question' in Nappy III's eyes by the end of 1861 with a POD after 1848. It could be Prussia or Austria sealing the deal on German unification, German unification becoming a remote possibility, a Franco-German alliance, whatever you like.

Extra points for a timeline.

Extra extra points for elaborating on future consequences (damn shoulda made this a WI too).
 
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The quick way to solve the problem is for Fredrick IV of Prussia to accept the throne offered by the Frankfurt Assembly in 1849.

Whist he dithered about taking / not taking the crown, it seems to me that this was because he was offered it by commoners and not aristocrats.

My POD would be that the Frankfurt Assembly contained a larger number of nobles and less commoners and that it had the full (rather than grudging) support of the various heads of the individual German states.
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
A POD I saw in another thread had Prussia embarrassing itself in the First Schleswig-Holstein War, falling to a revolutionary government while revolutionary feeling gripped the rest of Germany and Austria. It was a Frankfurt Assembly timeline and devolved into a civil war between the pan-Germans and Austrians, with A-H falling apart under the weight of the 1848 revolutions. This situation was heading for a Grossdeutschland-French alliance against a Russian-Italian alliance. Britain was also somewhat estranged from France in this scenario, but I'd like to keep Britain and France on essentially the same team which probably rules out a German-French alliance.
 
The quick way to solve the problem is for Fredrick IV of Prussia to accept the throne offered by the Frankfurt Assembly in 1849.

Whist he dithered about taking / not taking the crown, it seems to me that this was because he was offered it by commoners and not aristocrats.

My POD would be that the Frankfurt Assembly contained a larger number of nobles and less commoners and that it had the full (rather than grudging) support of the various heads of the individual German states.

There were plenty of nobles involved in the Frankfurt Assembly, and it was they, under Eduard von Simson, that led the delegation from Frankfurt, which was by that time guarded by Prussian troops, to Potsdam, where the Hohenzollerns had fled. There's simply no way to get Fredrick William to accept offer of ruling over all of Germany if it comes attached with the strings of accepting the new order of 1848. You have to understand that by the time the Assembly's offer reaches him he's just finished putting down the Berlin Uprising, one of the largest and most violent of the 1848-1849 period. Fredrick William thought much worse of the German crown than one 'from the gutter,' in private he decried it as "the dog-collar with which people want to chain me to the 1848 revolution." There's simply no way to get Fredrick William to accept the realities of 1848, and his brother was even more of a reactionary so that's out of the question as well. You'd have to kill them both off to get Prussian into the fold (which is what I did in my TL).

If you don't go down the obvious 1848 route, a little known but interesting way to bring about German unification could be a second revolutionary movement springing forward from a backfired Luxembourg Coup of 1856, coupled with the Neuchâtel Crisis. The Swiss and the Luxembourgers were both well within what was considered the 'German' sphere of influence at the time - hell both of them had German troops from the various states garrisoned in them until the late 19th century, and both had been havens of refuge for German liberal-radicals fleeing the reactionary-conservative establishment's crackdown in 1849. Hell, iirc, Neuchâtel was held by liberal-radicals, and had been one of the focal points of the Sonderbund War IOTL; and the fact that the Coup of 1856 didn't result in revolutionary activity IOTL is quite amazing. Put the two together and you'll have radicals marching across Baden, the Palatine and the Rhineland all over again.
 
Are there potential PODs for an earlier Austro-Prussian War? How might such a war turn out?

Well one of the main causes behind the Austro-Prussian War was the question of control in the German Confederation after the Second Schleswig War. The Austrians were nominally in control of the Duchies of Schleswig, Holstein, and Lauenburg, but the Prussians, who had just finished a crash reorganization and modernization of their military, were the ones who had done the majority of the fighting. Also the APR happened at such a time that there was little chance of outside powers intervening - Russia resented the Austrians for turning their back on them in the Crimean War, and the Prussians had helped them put down the January Uprising; Britain had withdrawn her commitment to help Denmark due to a change in government and a focus on internal matters (the Reform Act of 1867); France was pure luck, as Napoléon III had had plans to intervene in the war on Austria's side but changed his mind the night before the invasion was to go forward. So you would need a similar test of strength between the two vying powers ITTL, without foreign interference, to lead to an earlier war. That's not very likely to happen.

The best I can think of is that Prussia rejects the Punctation of Olmütz, and Prussia and Austria go to war over the question of intervention in the Electorate of Hesse and in the Kingdom of Bavaria. Perhaps the POD is that von Manteuffel is over-ruled in the recently re-established United Landtag by hardliners. Frederick William, Elector of Hesse, under the influence of his Minister-President, Hans Daniel Ludwig Friedrich Hassenpflug, had seceded his domain from the Prussian-led Erfurt Union, and Hassenpflug himself traveled to Frankfurt to the recently re-established Diet of the German Confederation to ask for Austrians intervention after Prussian troops seized Kassel (and the Bavarian town of Fulda after Bavaria also withdraw from the union just days later). IOTL the Prussians backed down after Prince Felix of Schwarzenberg issued the Punctation demanding Prussia withdrew its forces under threat of war with Austria, with von Manteuffel declaring that "The strong man takes a step back." ITTL though if von Manteuffel is over-ruled, or Hassenpflug less successful, or both, then war would break-out between the two German powers. Prussia had just recently negotiated the Alliance of Three Kings with Hanover and Saxony; however in Saxony and Prussia itself radical democratic agitation would be high, and the Allies' troops would likely be just as busy putting down revolts and uprisings as they would fighting the enemy. On the other hand though the Hapsburgs would still be incredibly busy holding down the Italians and Hungarians, and if it came down to it Vienna would much more likely want to hold on to the Pannonian Basin and the North Italian Plain than they would their influence over the German states. Neither side is really prepared for, or wanting, a war right now though. And unlike IOTL, there's a strong possibility of Russian intervention; France is too busy with Napoléon III touring the country preparing for his coup d'état by securing the allegiance of the military and the people, and in Britain while Palmerston might press for immediate intervention the rest of the Whig government of Russell is unlikely to go along with such a move - which might, incidentally, lead to an earlier fall of the Russel government, in which case the IOTL Who? Who? Ministry is likely skipped right over, and a coalition of Palmerstonian Whigs and Peelite Conservatives comes to power, which would likely lead to British intervention in late 1851 or early 1852, depending on how the war is going and if the Russians have intervened by then or not.

The ultimate result of such a war is up in the air - like I said, neither side is really prepared for it. If the radicals become a big enough issue, especially in the smaller German states, the Austrians and Prussians might set aside their rivalry long enough to crush the democrats once again. Ultimately I think you'd come to see the German Confederation finally rendered moot, with a new *North German Confederation of Prussia, Hanover, Saxony, and any allied and conquered states against a looser alliance of southern German states under Hapsburg leadership and protection, with the threat of foreign intervention hanging over both.

That doesn't really solve the 'German Question' question though, for either the Germans or for Napoléon III, who is unlikely to be comfortable with German unification happening in such a matter (e.g., one that doesn't aid him).
 

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
If you don't go down the obvious 1848 route, a little known but interesting way to bring about German unification could be a second revolutionary movement springing forward from a backfired Luxembourg Coup of 1856, coupled with the Neuchâtel Crisis. The Swiss and the Luxembourgers were both well within what was considered the 'German' sphere of influence at the time - hell both of them had German troops from the various states garrisoned in them until the late 19th century, and both had been havens of refuge for German liberal-radicals fleeing the reactionary-conservative establishment's crackdown in 1849. Hell, iirc, Neuchâtel was held by liberal-radicals, and had been one of the focal points of the Sonderbund War IOTL; and the fact that the Coup of 1856 didn't result in revolutionary activity IOTL is quite amazing. Put the two together and you'll have radicals marching across Baden, the Palatine and the Rhineland all over again.

I understand where you're going with Luxembourg, but what do you envisage happening in Neuchatel? Prussia goes in to rescue the royalists and reclaim the area? Get into a war with Switzerland? How? March through the south German states without their (nor Austria's) permission? Risk war with the UK and France?
 
I understand where you're going with Luxembourg, but what do you envisage happening in Neuchatel? Prussia goes in to rescue the royalists and reclaim the area? Get into a war with Switzerland? How? March through the south German states without their (nor Austria's) permission? Risk war with the UK and France?

Basically Prussia attempts to intervene as nearly happened IOTL, except this time Switzerland is filled to the gills with German revolutionary refugees, many of whom had served in the various radical militias of 1848; this combined with Switzerland's own liberal-democratic freischärlers means that the reactionary states would once again be threatened by democratic revolutionaries. This, independently, or in combination with the 'Luxembourg Coup backfires' scenario, settles the German Question '1848-Round II' scenario in which the radicals win.
 
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